A Mantle Price Bubble?

[MattyC]

Good topic. I believe there is no "bubble," when it comes to 51B and 52T Mantles. Simply put, these are two of the most widely desired cards in the hobby, and they also both happen to be incredibly hard to find with great eye appeal.

Someone who has managed to get their hands on a really nice eye appealing 52T or 51B Mantle tends to know how special and desirable a card they have, and it tends to be a cherished piece that will only sell in crisis, death, or when exiting the hobby altogether.

By almost anyone's measure, even when including pre-war cards, the 52T Mantle is likely the #2 or #3 card in the hobby (for example, PSA ranks it #2, one spot after the Wagner and one before the Ruth RC).

Also, as collectors who were young boys in the mid 1980's-- when the 52T card was cementing its iconic status-- enter their prime earning years, they are seeking to obtain it. So we are seeing a fresh new wave of buyer join the men in their 50s, 60s, and 70s who desire the card.

I think the 52T Mantle has appeal that goes way beyond the Yankee fan base; it is perhaps the most recognizable card in the hobby, the one even non collectors have seen. It is basically the standard-bearer of cards.

I also think the prices of truly elite eye-appealling 51B and 52T Mantles will continue to surge. If a dead centered, solid blue background PSA 6 #311 shows up, I believe it will sail pass 50k at auction. Essentially, those without one want one, and those with a decent one dream of having a really nice one. Who knows what any mid-grade 51B with perfect centering and no vertical lines would fetch at auction.

The demand for the #311 card in particular is just enormous, end of the day. Between Mantle collectors, HOF player collectors, 52 Topps Set collectors, Top Sportscard collectors, and random collectors in between, it's a card on everyone's list. And if one has it, it's probably the last one they'd sell in an emergency.

[bn2cardz]

As someone that thinks it is way too overvalued now and has no intentions of getting one (at least prior to a 51 Bowman) I do think it is a bubble. Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one and as people need funds to buy a house or pay medical bills it will be the first one to be sold and there are an abundance of them out there.

[MattyC]

If these hypothetical owners do sell them, there will be plenty of people (like myself) ready to buy them and hold them for long periods of time. And if people do sell, by the same logic there will be a waiting and hungry group of buyers (be they stretching themselves too thin or be they wealthy) ready to bid competitively on the card. So the mere act of anyone selling in no way ensures a drop in price. Unless, of course, all these hypothetical broke owners somehow go bust on the same day. And even then, the amount of ready buyers would support or drive up the price. Look what happened with a much, much less desired item: the 1975 Mini unopened hoard that flooded the market via REA years ago. Prices dropped for a moment, and now boxes have doubled since then.

No one has a crystal ball so there's no right answer here, but just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one...

This seems like quite an assumption, unless one has financial records of various buyers. I certainly haven't seen many great looking, centered examples of the #311 card being offered up by owners in recent years, who have gone bust to pay bills and now need money. Most of what is auctioned are the standard, tilted or OC or background-issue plagued examples.

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

...it will be the first one to be sold...

This statement also seems to presume what collectors have in their collections; one could just as easily take the counterpoint, that the #311 would be the last card a collector would sell. This would be in keeping with the safe bet that it is a collector's centerpiece. A collector may choose to sell all his "satellite" pieces well before parting with the heart of his collection.

Also, I always have had a problem with the notion of a collectible being "overvalued." People are paying what they are paying. These are the prices the card costs now. In the present, in this moment, each individual #311 is neither under nor overvalued. There is just simply what an owner paid. Now, some may think prices will go up, or will go down. But then we have to deal with the fact that because these are cards, each individual #311 is unique. It is always strikes me as folly when people try to codify or generalize the card market, or the market for all examples of a certain card. Cards aren't exactly like stocks or real estate. Because each #311 is unique despite a TPG sticker, each example will be more or less desirable to certain buyers.

Many variables can seemingly point to a downturn in one instant, with an ugly #311 selling for less than the previous sale, then the very next day a gorgeous example can surface and shatter the last sale. In this instance, is the card going up or down?

The answer is that it is all about the specific example of the card in question. One cannot group OC #311s or beaten-up, heavily creased #311s and the elite #311s, which are quite rare-- especially relative to demand. There is definitely not an abundance of elite, eye-appealing #311s out there. Middling examples I would agree are much more readily available

[Sean1125]

I don't think anyone should ever put "Mickey Mantle" and "overvalued" in the same sentence unless the words "will not ever be" are in between them.

Sean

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by Sean1125

I don't think anyone should ever put "Mickey Mantle" and "overvalued" in the same sentence unless the words "will not ever be" are in between them.

Sean

Mickey Mantle is overvalued. His numbers in baseball don't equate to his value in cards. If his aren't overvalued then every other player has undervalued cards.

Don't believe me just compare his numbers to Musial or even better Mays.

Mays:
Black Ink Batting - 57 (21), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 337 (8), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 376 (5), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 76 (2), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (1st), 156.2 career WAR/73.7 7yr-peak WAR/115.0 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

Mantle:
Black Ink Batting - 62 (15), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 272 (17), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 300 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 65 (22), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (4th), 109.7 career WAR/64.7 7yr-peak WAR/87.2 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

[MattyC]

Just using the numbers is a very reductive if not specious way to grasp Mantle's stature in the sport and hobby.

But rounding out the numbers, there is his still-record WS HRs to consider. The home run is the grandest, most popular act in the sport, and he did it more often than anyone else-- on the grandest stage. No doubt this contributes to his mythic stature. Now, is this a function of being on a good team? No doubt. But he happened to be on that team and he was the one who hit all those homers. And that is what the people remember.

When looking at Mantle, one must really look beyond numbers-- though in terms of peak, in terms of career OPS+, the numbers are great. Look where America was after WWII, and how planets aligned to create a hero. Mantle's looks, the team he played for, his very name, all these factors contributed to what he became.

In later life, his flaws, the way he spoke of them, the way he touched hearts by imploring people not to follow in his footsteps-- these are things that transcend what one can find on baseball reference.

Also, Mantle's numbers and the #311 card are two separate entities. A card has qualities and significance beyond the player depicted. Otherwise how could we ever see common player cards sell for bundles? Mantle's #311 is a hobby icon. Perhaps THE hobby icon after the Honus. It is probably on more want lists than any other card. It is the headline card of perhaps the most popular set in the hobby. These are things that are not tied exactly and only to his numbers.

Looking only at stats is like looking only at grade stickers and VCP grids when valuing and evaluating cards. It can lead one to miss a lot of the intangibles.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

Mickey Mantle is overvalued. His numbers in baseball don't equate to his value in cards. If his aren't overvalued then every other player has undervalued cards.

Don't believe me just compare his numbers to Musial or even better Mays.

Mays:
Black Ink Batting - 57 (21), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 337 (8), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 376 (5), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 76 (2), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (1st), 156.2 career WAR/73.7 7yr-peak WAR/115.0 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS



Mantle:
Black Ink Batting - 62 (15), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 272 (17), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 300 (15), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 65 (22), Average HOFer ≈ 50
JAWS Center Field (4th), 109.7 career WAR/64.7 7yr-peak WAR/87.2 JAWS
Average HOF CF (out of 18) = 70.4 career WAR/44.1 7yr-peak WAR/57.2 JAWS

Most or all of the above simply emphasizes quantity over quality. The Mick is one of just 8 or 9 players with a runs created per 27 outs figure greater than 200% of league average (a Bill James stat which I believe best measures the offensive value of a player, and automatically corrects for different conditions and eras). Mantle was at around 215% of league average (going by recollection of calculations made several years ago for various upper echelon HOF'ers), which placed him 3rd or
4th of all time (Williams was first, at 250%, while Ruth was second, at around 240%). Mays, on the other hand, was around 180%, which, while excellent, left him nowhere near Mantle. Musial was around 193%--great, but still significantly quite a ways behind in this purely objective, but immensely meaningful statistical comparison. Lest you doubt the significance, OBPS+ (on base % plus slugging % compared to league average, a stat widely accepted insofar as its relationship with offensive production is concerned) correlated quite well: 171% for Mantle; 156% for Mays. Mantle also scored more runs per game, and had a far higher on base percentage at .421, one of the highest of all time, while, going by memory, Mays was no better than around .380. Quality of play while both were active? Mantle, by a wide margin, which is why James rated him the 6th best player of all time (while Mays often had similar totals in the glamor stats, he was making about 60 more outs per year than Mantle to get them, due in large part to far smaller walk totals--studying games will rather quickly reveal that the team which takes longer to use up its allotted outs most often wins the game).

Career value leads to a different conclusion, since Mays' greater longevity gave him higher totals, but Eddie Murray had far higher totals than Johnny Mize and Hank Greenberg, two of the greatest first basemen of all time--would anyone in their right mind suggest that Murray was a higher quality player than either?

My conclusion is that while I believe the value of Mantle's '52 Topps card is in a bubble, propped up in too great a measure by elements of demand that are both speculative and transient, in light of the quantity of cards that are out there, he was unequivocally not overrated as a player.

Interesting discussion, and best wishes to all,

Larry

[bn2cardz]

Originally Posted by MattyC

No one has a crystal ball.

Right, that is why I said "I do think it is a bubble", instead of " I know...".

Originally Posted by MattyC

But just curious, how can any of us know the specific financial situation of buyers? How can anyone tell if buyers of this card are "stretching themselves too thin?" Most guys I know who have one are quite solvent. Then we have guys like Bill and my brother in other threads, who are prudently saving up.

This seems like quite an assumption.

It is an assumption.

It is an assumption based on the psychology of people "keeping up with the Joneses". What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

[MattyC]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

What I mean by stretching "themselves too thin" is by not being diversified, this one card can end up being worth more than someone's car or a year's worth of rent/mortgage payment, or aprox 2 months salary (based off $8k for mantle to the 2012 medium household income). So if this is over 10% of someone's total assets and an emergency comes up this card is going to be sold.

So is your assumption that the majority of owners of this card are people with median 2012 household income? That's where I guess I respectfully differ and see a fissure in the logic. I'd contend that the majority of owners of this card, especially the best-looking examples, are not going bust anytime soon. Also, by extension that same logic would apply to any card worth in excess of 8k. Above all, this hypothetical overextended collector may just as possibly have other cards to sell first.

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

[GregC]

Originally Posted by MattyC

I think the vast majority of the owners of this card or other $8k+ collectibles are "The Joneses," as opposed to those merely trying to keep up.

First off, great topic. Matt, you really nailed every point I would have made both in regard to the reasoning behind the #311 climbing in value and the man himself.

I for one am after a #311 and just recently purchased a great 51B. Believe me, if I fall on hard times that 51 is the last to go. I'd likely sell my body before my Mick. I might even auction off my woman if I had to, my 51 is really well centered!

[Bestdj777]

I don't think the bubble will burst but I could see it leveling back out as the demand decreases again. I think a lot of the price increase recently had to do with the economy recovering a bit and the increase in discretionary funds.

For what it is worth, if I ever really needed the cash, my 52 Topps Mantles would likely be some of the first to go. They are expensive, but any time you want you can go on eBay and pick up a 51 Bowman or 52 Topps Mantle. Yes, you may have to wait for the perfect eye appeal (if that is your thing) or price, but you can find them. It could take a year plus to replace some of the other cards, if you are lucky...

[phabphour20]

Question for you guys... I got a lead on a '51B that is currently slabbed as a BVG 4. It has some of the best eye appeal I have seen on a 51B. Nicely centered, good color, etc. But it has a small crease about .5" in from the bottom right corner.

My buddy is asking $3500 which feels rich, but it is a really nice example of the card. Is BVG more lenient on creases than PSA? PSA says in a 4 that a "light crease may be visible." I prefer my cards in PSA holders for several reasons.

I feel like $2500 is the right price for this card, but then I am not sure what kind of premium to put on a centered card that gets dinged for a crease that, in my opinion, doesn't take away from the overall eye appeal of the card. I have always wanted one of these for my collection but don't want to overpay terribly in case I ever need the cash.

Any thoughts?

[MattyC]

Centered 5s have been changing hands in the 5k zone. I know two centered 4s that sold at 4k and 4250. One was my brother's posted around here somewhere, if you want to compare. Maybe it was March pickups? Or you can PM GregC for a scan of his 4. So 2500 would be along the lines of highway robbery if it had great centering and eye appeal, no vertical print lines. FWIW, I think your buddy's ask is on the money leaning toward generous assuming it crosses. If he's your homie, maybe you guys can split the cross fee and then establish a fair price based on where it ends up in a PSA slab, given your preference. I'd buy as many nice 4s at 2500 as were offered to me. At 3500 if you ever wanna sell a 4 that looks like GregC's for example, I will give you cash.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by bn2cardz

As someone that thinks it is way too overvalued now and has no intentions of getting one (at least prior to a 51 Bowman) I do think it is a bubble. Too many people are stretching themselves thin to get one and as people need funds to buy a house or pay medical bills it will be the first one to be sold and there are an abundance of them out there.

I agree the allure of owning either one of these cards could spread somebody thin. That's what I am making sure I do not do. I have been working the last few months to rebuild my savings before I buy anything. I'm nearly at the point where I'm completely happy with that. Then, going forward, I'll add more to my savings, and budget a certain amount for my collection each month. I will be taking a set amount for Mick's '52 Topps card, putting that aside, and then working on all my other wants from whatever is left.

It might take me darned near forever to get it, but I think saving for it over time is the smart way to do it.

There's always going to be demand, but sometimes fortune favors not the bold, but those who are patient.