baseball's falling popularity and its affect on our hobby

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by rhettyeakley

I always find it interesting that people tie the collecting of baseball memorabilia so closely to the collectors love of the current game of baseball.

I actually feel pretty good about the sports collectibles hobby. This hobby unlike many collectibles fields has an advantage in that it is tied to a game that is still currently being played and maintains popularity. Many items from other hobbies that maintain high value today have nothing going for them other than that they were once highly prized and that value has continued to this day.

What about the glass bottle collector... do we tie their long term viability based on how much people today love glass bottles? How about the Coca-Cola collector... do we worry about their long term collectability due to Coke's dropping presence in the soda market today? How about coin collecting... do we worry about this market because almost nobody uses physical money anymore?

The answer to these questions may very well be yes but we can make similar types of pessimistic views with nearly every field within the collectibles market. Nobody can see the future but I think some are being a bit simplistic when they start making direct correlations from the popularity of baseball right now and the long term collectability of baseball items.

+1

[freakhappy]

For some reason I feel a few people in this thread are "on edge" why do you think that is?

I think MyGuyTy has some very valid points and I don't believe he is being pessimistic at all...but rather, realistic. I don't know what will happen to the hobby in the next 30-50 years or after that, but I think what he is saying seems very logical...to deny it, seems like you just don't want to think about it.

We all know that the younger generation is not into cards like they used to be and I don't know one kid under 18 except wazoo that does! Twenty or so years ago, card collecting amongst kids was so popular...but now it is mostly dead. So what does this possibly say for the future of the hobby once our generation has passed? I don't know the answer for sure, but unless A LOT of younger kids get moving, we should see a decline for sure.

Since the '90's or so, it has been a wreck for kids to collect because of the prices and a lot of card stores are long gone. Things aren't that simple or fun anymore and if no one is there to present this great hobby of ours to them, then where is it going? Certainly not up, right? I'm sure there will always be buyers and sellers, but I highly doubt the demand will rise IMO. I love this hobby and I for one do not want it to decline, but it kind of seems obvious when you think about it.

There's no doubt that it should stay steady for a good amount of years, but for how long? We only have a small sample size of card collecting overall (130-50 years) and we're already seeing the younger generation stray away.

[doug.goodman]

Forgetting about the "state of the hobby" for just a moment...

Has anybody mentioned what a stupid f'ing poll that was?

What's your favorite sport? Who cares.


If the question had been "what's your favorite meal?" I'm confident of two things :

1 - Ice cream would not have won.

2 - Ice cream stores will never go out of business.



Pitchers and catchers start reporting in 11 days, and I for one couldn't care less if the world prefers football (double meaning intended).

The fewer people in the stands for a baseball game the better, as far as I'm concerned, because, the dorks are the first ones to not show up, so the smaller the crowd, the higher the percentage of actual baseball fans.

If I owned a team, I wouldn't anybody into the park who didn't keep score.

Doug

[wonkaticket]

I don't think anyone is "on edge" about anything there's nothing to be on edge about. Mike perhaps you can explain "on edge"?

[freakhappy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

I don't think anyone is "on edge" about anything there's nothing to be on edge about. Mike perhaps you can explain "on edge"?

Don't talk about my hobby like that!!! Just the feeling I get when some people respond. Nothing personal...

How's the chocolate business going?

cat.jpg

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

Don't talk about my hobby like that!!! Just the feeling I get when some people respond. Nothing personal...

How's the chocolate business going?

Attachment 130468

Still not following you Mike, If you're referring to the position that the hobby isn't going to fall apart in 20 years due to the short attention span of Americas youth or the decline of the shiny card business as an on edge response then I'm guilty as charged. Or as I see it it's just the counter offer to the gloom and doom hardly on edge.

Cheers,

John

P.S. Not in the chocolate business anymore I hear my neighbors kids like Redbull more these days so the chocolate business will fall apart 20 years from now.....

[mrvster]

THAT WAS GREAT! I'm dumping all my chocolate stock now to buy red bull stock

[freakhappy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Still not following you Mike, If you're referring to the position that the hobby isn't going to fall apart in 20 years due to the short attention span of Americas youth or the decline of the shiny card business as an on edge response then I'm guilty as charged. Or as I see it it's just the counter offer to the gloom and doom hardly on edge.

Cheers,

John

P.S. Not in the chocolate business anymore I hear my neighbors kids like Redbull more these days so the chocolate business will fall apart 20 years from now.....

Lol...not in 20 years, John...50-70 years! Like I said, this hobby is safe for the near future, but it's the long term that scares me...I hope this generation doesn't die in 20 years!!! I don't see this hobby completely dying out, but how can you deny that there is a strong possibility that it will not be somewhat close to what it is today?

Johnny...I love your enthusiasm and I hope I'm reading your comments on here for a long time I'm right with you on card collectors will always exist as long as there are a game to be played (or something like that). However...my view is not just considering that card collectors will exist, but what shape will they be in in the distant future. The evidence before us suggests that it will not be so merry like we want it to be...maybe I'm wrong, but how can anyone push this aside and just scoff at it? Either way I'm going to enjoy this hobby until someone or something pries it away from me.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

P.S. Not in the chocolate business anymore I hear my neighbors kids like Redbull more these days so the chocolate business will fall apart 20 years from now.....

Ooohhhhh........U mad now?............that's cute.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Ooohhhhh........U mad now?............that's cute.

No just joking with you I thought that was what we were doing, having playful fun with each other since we seem to have different views on how the hobby pays out.

Did I miss something? Or are you taking this more seriously than I am?

I’ve been very straight forward and nice in my counters. You feel the hobby is going to crash and burn because kids today don’t collect modern shiny etc. I think the hobby is going to be fine because I don’t feel modern shiny and baseball attendance really impact peoples collecting of odd pre-war material.

Heck the last few national shows will show you that it's two different worlds. The people lined up for autographs and doing modern pack rips are rarely if ever the folks who swing by Leon and Scott’s table 15min later to buy a D381.

I also collect lots of non-sports cards as well how much of that subject matter is driven by current pop trends? Heck tobacco cards even. Cigarettes are so taboo now why would folks still collect tobacco items…I just don’t think it’s as simple as you paint it.

Then the demographics/economy. I do agree this may effect every day basic sales. However I don’t think economic changes will really impact the examples you presented. The folks that are spending millions to tens of thousands at every turn are most likely not effected by economic times like the rest of us may be.

Bottom line the hobby like all hobbies is driven by many people collecting for varying reasons not all are card collectors from youth who are die hard baseball fans living from paycheck to paycheck.

[DerekMichael]

I found this thread to be very interesting, and just wanted to add one more thing, which is obviously just an opinion.

I am 27 years old. I am a great admirer of the T206 set. HOWEVER, I can tell you with absolute certainty that when I was a teenager or younger, that I did not give a damn about T206 cards, or any cards really. Sure, I liked them and collected VERY modestly, but the reality was that I wanted to see my friends and play guitars and have drinks and meet girls etc. etc. etc. etc. ... baseball cards meant nothing to me at the time, other than a way to have some fun with my Dad, who had not bought a baseball card since he was a teenager in the 60's. They just did not matter to me at that age.

In my opinion, collecting new cards and collecting vintage cards are two completely different worlds. I think "new" cards are dead by and large, for a wide variety of reasons, and that the younger generation is likely not to return to them. There are just far too many other things for them this day and age. However, as they get a little bit older, if they are anything like me, they will settle down just a bit, and look for something they can appreciate. I chose vintage baseball cards because I see them as genuine fine art for the baseball fan.

My point is that if people feel worried about the hobby in general because teenagers etc. are not interested in buying packs of new cards, that the hobby is in trouble, or will be. It just does not work that way. Even if they are not interested in pre war cards for example, it does not mean that they will not be somewhere down the line, it is just hard to have a genuine hobby at that age because so much is going on and it so, so hard to earn a living, or to be paying off student loans, or whatever it is.

Just remember, even if many people pass away, leave their cards to their kids who decide to "dump" everything, and there is a huge rush to the market, it only takes two people who really want the card for the prices to either remain strong or continue to grow, or whatever it is. ONLY TWO. So, who knows? ...

I do not mean this in an argumentative way, whatsoever. I found this to be a very interesting thread to read. I just honestly think people need to realize that by and large, the younger people (teens etc.) are not going to have much interest in this hobby for a variety of reasons, certainly not like it was in my fathers day. Still, it does not mean that they will not fall madly in love with at some point in their lives. There are just so many factors.

So, who knows? ... Not me!

Derek Hogue

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

I don't think anyone is "on edge" about anything there's nothing to be on edge about. Mike perhaps you can explain "on edge"?

I don't think anyone is on edge!!!!!!........who's on edge!!!!!!!.........there's NOTHING to be on edge about!!!!!!!.......EXPLAIN WHAT YOU MEAN BY ON EDGE DAMNIT!!!!!!!...........LOL.

[wonkaticket]

MyGuyTy you still here I figured you would have found a Kardashians forum or something the kids today are into, this hobby is doomed haven't you heard.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

MyGuyTy you still here I figured you would have found a Kardashians forum or something the kids today are into, this hobby is doomed haven't you heard.

U still on edge huh? I didn't even know there was a Kardashian forum.....you must be a closet board member. Tell us the truth Johnny.....tell us the truth......

[teetwoohsix]

Love the different POV's. I agree with those who say that there is a huge difference between collectors of vintage/pre-war and modern collectors. Not that either group can't/doesn't appreciate the other- but I think it's a whole different world.

Also, someone made the point earlier that there are also pre-war collectors who aren't even into modern sports. There are many facets to consider, but I just look at the fact that even through this down economy we've been having for the past X amount of years, the auctions are still running and certain cards are bringing in nice money.

I am one who does not think the prices for miscuts, freaks, ghosts, etc. will take a nose dive. It's become a supply vs. demand issue-along with an understanding of rarity within the set (referring to T206's in particular). I don't think it's a passing fad, and I believe more people would be after them, if they weren't so pricey . There are so many ways to collect the set, and that's just one of them. I even like those freaks from the other sets as well.

I also think modern card collecting would be stronger if there was a limited supply of sets and prints. There are so many damn modern sets it just becomes too complicated for me. No manufactured rarity, have the rarity come from short prints in the limited sets.

I can't think of anything to collect that would be as exciting as T206's....I have a neighbor/friend who collects gold....it looks nice, but nothing exciting about it to me. Same with silver. To each their own.

Sincerely, Clayton

[itjclarke]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

I think MyGuyTy has some very valid points and I don't believe he is being pessimistic at all...but rather, realistic.

Totally agree, I think MyGuyTy made some very valid points. At the same time I do very much hope the hobby finds a way to continue and thrive long after I'm gone. If so, I think it (whoever "it" is) will need to take a more active role in doing so.. Per Dan's post, a TV show, or anything that creates some positive attention and promotion would be great. The card/memorabilia world will also need to do a heck of a lot better job a courting young collectors... And with young collectors, I think it's far better if this is driven first by the game.. By a love of the game, rather than simply collecting its artifacts.

I understand the point that some collect solely for collecting sake or for love of the game's history, while not having passion for the present game.. and/or without having had a love for the game (playing/watching) and cards as kids. I think that's great, whatever floats your boat.. People's motivations are varied and this is good. To me however (and I think to many average collectors), all these things come together- the game current and past, childhood memories of playing and talking baseball with my dad, scouring through Bill James books, and getting those first cards. I feel having had all these experiences, mixed with the emotions they evoke are the main reason I collect now.. And in that, the popularity of the present game, and how the next younger generation views it is hugely important toward getting the average person into collecting.

To that, off the top of my head, current baseball "bads"--- PEDs and a growing fan indifference towards new records/career milestones and the HOF. Free agency limiting any city's (or kid's) bond with its stars. Goods--- amazing influence international talent has had on the quality of play. Incredible year round TV coverage/access to all games. Nice new ballparks and rising attendance. A style of play that seems to be morphing back to basic fundamentals (pitching, defense, running, gap to gap hitting, etc) rather than the static mid-90's CO Rockies' HR derby style. And given football concussion/health concerns (as mentioned earlier), a possible youth shift back to baseball (and probably soccer.. Even though it has a concussion problem of its own), which could ensure MLB gets more Mike Trouts/Matt Kemp caliber athletes. I think baseball is due for a big bounce back, and so could the current card world if it plays it's cards right.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

For some reason I feel a few people in this thread are "on edge" why do you think that is?

I think MyGuyTy has some very valid points and I don't believe he is being pessimistic at all...but rather, realistic. I don't know what will happen to the hobby in the next 30-50 years or after that, but I think what he is saying seems very logical...to deny it, seems like you just don't want to think about it.

We all know that the younger generation is not into cards like they used to be and I don't know one kid under 18 except wazoo that does! Twenty or so years ago, card collecting amongst kids was so popular...but now it is mostly dead. So what does this possibly say for the future of the hobby once our generation has passed? I don't know the answer for sure, but unless A LOT of younger kids get moving, we should see a decline for sure.

Since the '90's or so, it has been a wreck for kids to collect because of the prices and a lot of card stores are long gone. Things aren't that simple or fun anymore and if no one is there to present this great hobby of ours to them, then where is it going? Certainly not up, right? I'm sure there will always be buyers and sellers, but I highly doubt the demand will rise IMO. I love this hobby and I for one do not want it to decline, but it kind of seems obvious when you think about it.

There's no doubt that it should stay steady for a good amount of years, but for how long? We only have a small sample size of card collecting overall (130-50 years) and we're already seeing the younger generation stray away.

Great points Mike, that's basically all I'm saying. Will there still be SOME collectors of vintage baseball memorabilia 30 years from now?.....sure, BUT to what extent?? Is there gonna be enough "die hard" vintage baseball guys 30 years from now that are gonna be falling all over each other to bid $110,000 on an old raggedy N172 OJ advertisement from 1887?? Judging by the path this hobby (and baseball in general) is projecting with the next generation, my money is absolutely on no. These prices today are driven by that 1950's to 1980's demographic that is still the driving force. In 30 years everything changes all over again.

And we haven't even got into the fact that the demographics in this country are rapidly changing especially in the south, southeast, southwest and west. Not to mention the grim economic landscape that is being forecasted for our kids 25-30 years from now as jobs continue to be outsourced, eliminated or giving to illegals at a cheaper wage.

Just as Mike said NOBODY (especially the guy who just blew $110,000 on that advertisement) wants to hear these things, just like the real estate investors 10 years ago didn't wanna hear those silly "bubble bursting" projections.........truths do in fact suck when you have a vested interest.

Why did it take this hobby until the 1980's/1990's to start bringing in ENORMOUS prices for vintage items??? Because the interest in (over) paying silly prices for cards was non-existent despite the fact that there were in deed many "collectors" in this hobby. It was actually about the hobby itself and the love of the game. The 80's roared in with a cultural, economic and direct financial boom and these professionals who were baseball card collecting kids in the 50's and 60's decided it's time to start spending some serious money on old baseball cards to rekindle that passion. A "passion" that is quickly fading away with today's kids.

[steve B]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Why did it take this hobby until the 1980's/1990's to start bringing in ENORMOUS prices for vintage items??? Because the interest in (over) paying silly prices for cards was non-existent despite the fact that there were in deed many "collectors" in this hobby. It was actually about the hobby itself and the love of the game. The 80's roared in with a cultural, economic and direct financial boom and these professionals who were baseball card collecting kids in the 50's and 60's decided it's time to start spending some serious money on old baseball cards to rekindle that passion. A "passion" that is quickly fading away with today's kids.

A big part of the hobby becoming bigger in the late70's to early 80's was the group of early dealers. There was also a huge surge in all popculture stuff at the time.

The early hobby was somewhat underground. People collected but it wasn't easy finding other people collecting the same stuff. Sports stuff was a small sideline to general ephemera, and if it turned up at all it was usually with an antique dealer who was more interested in other things. Then a few people started advertising in more mainstream publications like the sporting news. The ads I remember were ones offering something like 1500 for a Wagner. that got the idea into peoples minds that those old cards might be worth something.
I think another thing was growing interest in the sport because of Hank Aaron and Willie Mays. Mays faded, but Aarons getting closer to Babe Ruths record attracted a lot of attention from non-fans. And the record being older attracted interest to earlier baseball. (SABR and a few other things helped too)
Antiques as a pursuit had become a bit stuffy, Stuff had to be old enough, Usually 100 years and everything else was just "modern junk" But a lot of that modern junk was actually very solid aesthetically. And since there wasn't a whole lot of stuff from before 1880 besides furniture, paintings and china/pottery.
So there was a building interest in the other stuff. Especially small stuff that was interesting and had a potential theme to it. Baseball cards fit that really well. Lots of memorabilia didn't. Even into the early 80's - My first game used bat was only nine bucks, and everyone thought buying it was a bit nuts.

There was a lot of other stuff that could have become just as big. Records, postcards, toys, .........But while all that stuff took off too, it didn't have the elements that cards had.
collecting most of those things isn't finite. There are millions of different postcards, and even if you only collect one city there are always "new" ones you've never seen before. And there were no checklists, and few or none that were "special" Meaning they had the three huge elements that make an iconic item - Rarity but not TOO rare, a subject that crosses boundaries, and a great story.

Baseball cards had a lot going for them. They were small. The heavy lifting of making lists of what existed was largely done, making it possible to collect a particular group - maybe just t206 southern leaguers, maybe just bell brand, maybe just your favorite team. So there was a specific goal possible. People love a "complete" collection. And there were already a few "special" cards. The Wagner, Plank, maybe Magie and a couple of the T207s. The Wagner rose to the top because of the great story. And that drove interest.
(Just like the upside down airplane stamp, and the 1955 and 1972 double die pennies - None are truly rare, but they all have fascinating stories, the coins less so. Maybe the 1913 liberty nickels or 1804 dollars would be better examples for the story but the 1913s are truly rare.

ALL pop culture stuff got "big", but baseball cards had what it took to become HUGE.
Of course there's a potential for it to fade. But I've been hearing the "the hobby is doomed" since maybe 1981. I'm sure the guys who have been doing it longer heard it earlier.
I've seen articles from the 1890's proclaiming the end of stamp collecting.


Steve B

[ullmandds]

well stated steve b!

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by steve B

Of course there's a potential for it to fade. But I've been hearing the "the hobby is doomed" since maybe 1981. I'm sure the guys who have been doing it longer heard it earlier.

+1 Well said I agree.