Looking for an ebay clarification

[tbob]

Ok, I know most 54ers will probably skip this thread but hopefully someone can chime in with an answer. A seller sells an item on ebay. It is purchased. Buyer pays with Paypal. Seller says he sends item. Item never received. Seller shows that he sent it Fed Ex and tracking shows it was delivered to the requested residence and the date and time. Item never arrived. Buyer files with ebay and escalates claim for resolution.
Now the question I have is this: based on other posts I have read it appears, to me at least, that merely showing an item was sent and having a tracking record showing delivery to a residence is not enough. $18 shipping for expedited shipping and you would think the seller would include a delivery signature request, but didn't. The seller, who it appears is an honest person with over 100 feedbacks and 100% throws up his hands and says "not my problem I shipped it and have the tracking." Buyer has over 7000 feedbacks and 100% says "the item never arrived, even looked in the bushes, etc."
What will the resolution be? Does anyone have an educated guess?
Yes I am the buyer so I am curious what will happen. The ebay protection plan is supposed to cover this and I know ebay supposedly sides with buyers who don't get their items, but knowing ebay, who knows?
Thanks in advance.