Posted By:
Al C.risafulliDisagree, Jeff.
It was a neck-and-neck race before the economic crisis started influencing things. Obama had pulled ahead with his DNC bounce, McCain erased Obama's lead with his RNC bounce, and things had begun to even out again - as everyone expected - when Lehman tanked. Absent any economic crisis, I think the election would have focused on Iraq, Palin, and taxes. Obama still would have outspent McCain 3-1 in battleground states, he still would have had a much more robust ground game, and he still would have had a message that appeals to a greater percentage of Americans.
And if McCain had decided to make Jeremiah Wright an issue, Obama would have done the same with Rod Parsley.
I'm not saying he would have amassed 340 electoral votes, but 270 was, at the time, very realistic.
-Al