Is there a pre-war set likely to decrease in value?

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Posted By: Eric Brehm

Peter your analysis may be correct but I think there are too many uncertainties to be able to predict what will happen when certain high end collectors complete their sets or decide to sell off portions of their collections. And while such events may cause local perturbations in prices realized, they will likely have little effect over the long term.

Over the long term, I would look at prices for key cards such as T206 Cobb, 1933 Goudey Ruth, and from the post-war period, Mickey Mantle cards, as the best indicators of the general health of the hobby. Those are the cards that many new collectors will probably want initially (sticker shock notwithstanding), before they develop an interest in acquiring cards of lesser-known players, assembling complete sets, etc. In any case, if the Cobbs, Ruths, and Mantles start to decline significantly, I would start to get concerned.

I remember reading an interview with Al Rosen about ten years ago, in which he suggested that he had become much more conservative in his buying practices, and said that "when the music stops, I want to be sitting down." When I got back in the hobby last year, I was amazed at the amount of interest there still is in baseball cards -- not as many shows as there used to be, and not as many card shops, but a huge volume of activity on the internet. I don't think the music will be stopping any time soon.