What is the (predicted) future of card grading services?

[Kco]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

We had nearly a dozen "AI" model and small type grading operations startup and fail within 2 years during peak hobby boom of the early 2020s. Unfortunately the cost and reality to get into that side of the business is massively expensive and grabbing market share from established giants would be incredibly difficult.

People are entrenched with PSA/SGC. Hell, look at the CGC/JSA combo, while its incrementally gaining some market share, it will be very, very difficult to take a meaningful chunk of PSA business. The reality of the pure capital outlay, THEN winning hobbyist trust, THEN taking away business while somehow turning a profit is a monumental mountain to climb for any new company.

Also, AI, like most things, will evolve and may be used as a tool vs a replacement. If it heads that route I'd expect PSA/CGC to implement a sort of AI Pre-grading phase, then validate initial scores with actual humans. It would in theory speed up the process and make it a bit more standardized.

I think the up-charge portion of the business is where there may be a chance if any meaningful contraction in submissions happen.