Is this really a buyer’s market?

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by bcbgcbrcb

If you are one of those who watch YouTube content regularly, you have surely heard just about every channel lately touting what a great time it is to buy sports cards with prices being so far below levels of a year or two ago. Well, today I did some exploring on eBay, searching for the GOAT vintage basketball cards that have come down the most over the past couple of years. As a buyer looking for good deals on ‘61 Fleer Wilts, Oscars, Jerrys and ‘69 Kareems, I came up empty handed. Beginning with the lowest PSA priced of each one of those cards, all I found was every single card with roughly 90/10 centering one way or the other or both with basically zero exhibiting what I would describe as superior eye appeal for the grade. I went up to around PSA 5 levels for each without being able to find a single example that I would be looking to jump on if I had the excess funds to make a purchase right now. As just a small sampling, I didn’t do any football, hockey or baseball but would expect to find similar results.

So, my conclusion is that no sellers or extremely few sellers are willing to part with their high eye appeal cards in this market and if they could possibly just hold on to all of them without selling, they absolutely will do that. Thus, where does that leave the astute buyer looking to take advantage of the down market as everyone is promoting? Take what you can get? This doesn’t seem like an ideal buying strategy to me.

I think the cards you were looking for are an exception though. I consider myself an expert on 61 Fleer basketball. It's probably the set I know more about than any other set in any sport. It's a very special set. I am also a centering obsessed collector with clinically diagnosed obsessive-compulsive disorder. I'd wager good money that there isn't a single person on the planet who is more anal about their 61 Fleer set than I am. I upgrade every card in the set to a better-centered copy every chance I get. Pics of my set are below because YAY PICS!

Here are some fun facts:

1) I have never in my life encountered a truly 50/50 centered 1961 Fleer Jerry West RC. It just so happens to align on the sheet at the intersection of the most commonly miscut row and the 2nd most commonly miscut column. I have searched for years for one of these. I saw two that were close. I lost out on one and the other was overgraded and way overpriced (5x "comps"). Mine is centered L/R but off T/B.

2) A centered Wilt RC pops up maybe once every year or two. They're also super rare. A centered Elgin Baylor RC usually gets rejected by PSA. And I've only seen maybe 3 centered Oscar Robertson RCs ever. Mind you, I've searched this set weekly for years.

3) The entire set is hands down the most wildly miscut set that I'm aware of (perhaps there is some random obscure issue set that could be worse, but I doubt it). Finding any card in this set that is truly centered is like finding a needle in a haystack. Even in high grade. Nearly every 8, 9, and 10 I've seen is still too OC for me.

4) PSA graders have no clue how to grade these cards. They are CONSTANTLY rejected as "minsize" due to ignorance on PSA's part. The factory cuts on these are often narrow, and the factory heights vary by more than 3/4"!! Especially card numbers 1-6, which make up the rightmost column of the uncut sheet. Every single copy of cards 1-6 (which includes 4 HOF RCs: Elgin Baylor RC, Attles RC, Bellamy RC, and Arizin RC) measures narrow. EVERY SINGLE ONE. Every copy that has ever been slabbed by PSA, and every copy they reject. That's just how the sheets were cut. Cards from the rightmost column are narrower than every other card in the set. Getting one through grading at PSA is simply a matter of luck. Did the grader measure it that day or not? I have a centered Arizin that PSA refuses to grade despite the fact that it was in a PSA 7 holder when I bought it (it deserves an 8.5).

Cliff notes: I wouldn't use 1961 Fleer basketball as a proxy for the rest of the market. It has its own set of rules.


These are the cards in my set (a few have been upgraded since the pics were taken).

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