Would you follow through and pay? Brady's last TD

[Carter08]

Originally Posted by Tyruscobb

I would argue that the sale price ($518k) reflected the risk Brady would return. That is - the risk was already baked into the cake, and is the reason the ball "only" went for $518k and not more.

Over a decade ago, Barry Bond's final homerun ball sold for $750k. Adjusted for inflation, in today's value, the $750k is worth over $832k. Thus, Brady's "final" TD ball sold for just 63% what the Bond's ball would fetch today.

In 1999, twenty-three years ago, a bidder paid $650k for Hank Aaron's final homerun ball (#755). Adjusted for inflation, in today's value, the $650k is worth over $1.1M. Thus, Brady's "final" TD ball only sold for less than half what Aaron's final ball would fetch today.

Like Aaron and Bonds, Brady is a legend and among the greatest to ever play. I know baseball's number are more sacred, but I would expect the true final Brady TD ball to sell close to par with Aaron and Bond's final balls.

The sports collectible market has only increased since the Bond's ball sale. Brady is the greatest QB, and perhaps the greatest football player. The fact his final ball only sold for fractions, when compared with Aaron and Bond's final balls, tells me that the bidding reflected the risk that Brady would come back. If bidder truly thought Brady would stay retired, the ball should've fetched near $1M.

If Brady stayed retired then $518k could have been an absolute bargain. The winning bidder took a gamble that didn't pay out. If Brady stayed retired, the bidder got a tremendous deal. If Brady came back, the bidder could back out and cancel? Where is the bidder's risk? Letting the bidder off the hook gives the bidder all the upside with absolutely no downside.

Good point. I think the description of it was written poorly though. It was too definitive in proclaiming it at his last TD ball.