The curious case of a 1952 topps Eddie Mathews, the sky is falling

[hcv123]

Originally Posted by Smarti5051

I think alot of factors are at play, all of which seem to be aiding the recent run up of vintage prices:

(1) The Covid boom in the card market obviously had a quick and crazy impact on all card prices (except 80s Topps products). Packs became difficult to find and prices on newer issues fluctuated wildly based on a player's performance day to day. Any current player was bought and sold like a tech stock, while vintage cards were viewed as the blue chips (they would rise with the market, but are less susceptible to downturns). As collectors started getting burned by players off-field indiscretions or on-field poor performance, the thirst for their cardboard investments turned to safer cards - old HOFers in major sports from iconic products seem about as "safe" as you can get in the card world.

(2) Right or wrong, the "investment" phase of sportscards has never been so strong. It is now acceptable to treat vintage sportscards as a reasonable part of an investment portfolio. I have even used this argument to convince the wife to let me buy and hold several cards on my bucket list (I even have the green light to get a PSA CJ Shoeless Joe if I can ever find one). It might not appreciate as much as VTI over the long term, but it is sure a fun way to diversify.

(3) Money has been pretty easy to make the past couple years. Even ignoring the free money from the government, most businesses are booming and begging/competing for workers. Meanwhile, every homeowner earns a free mid-grade Goudey Ruth each year just by paying their mortgage.

(4) All of the hobby attention has brought a new wave of collectors. 90% of the new collectors might stick to the modern issues, but even if only 10% of hobby entrants gain an appreciation for vintage, they have been outpacing the older collectors that liquidate their collections.

(5) Inflation is a thing. I remember in the 80s, part of the reason for the card boom is that they were viewed as a good hedge against inflation. We might be seeing some of that at play now.

The one phenomenon I have noticed is the willingness of collectors/investors (myself included) to accept lower quality examples in their collections. I remember when I was collecting in the early 2000s, it would have to be a special, rare card for a sub-PSA 5 to enter the collection. PSA 1-4 were often HEAVILY discounted. I get depressed thinking about the PSA 3 Lou Gehrigs and CJ Shoeless Joe cards I didn't bid on a decade ago because the grade was too low. Now, a PSA 2 of a decent HOF rookie often have 30+ unique bidders on Ebay.

The bottom line:

The demand spike on many cards is far outstripping the availability (supply) of said cards. While many tout auctions as the best way to sell cards - situations like you are highlighting don't get talked about - on the other side of "record auction prices" are the ones the majority that sell for "fair market and others (admittedly usually exceptions) that fall through the cracks.

Shameless self promotion - both of the latter situations is what allows my private consignment business model to work! NOTHING will fall through the cracks, if I don't get fair market value, the card doesn't sell and for the right quality cards, I sometimes can get a "record price"!