Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth
My sense is the demand for the most part is being driven by wealthy people who see cards as an asset class for their portfolio, not by the collector who had an extra K from a stimulus check and had no outlet for it.
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+1.
I don’t think those stimulus checks a year+ ago are the reason auction houses regularly have many $100k+ cards in every auction or why/how Goldin’s current auction has over 200 lots currently sitting at $10k+ BEFORE Buyers premium. Goldin is almost 100% ultra modern and likely less than 20% baseball, which is a different animal from what we normally dig on this forum, and I do believe modern and vintage are two different beasts. But I agree with Peter that, for whatever reason, a new waive of entrants have come into the “hobby”, except they view cards as assets. This applies to both vintage and modern. And, perhaps people view the asset as an inflation hedge.
To me, the real question is how “sticky” are these new entrants. If they are fickle, than card prices could go down steeply if the “market” turns. But I feel the the VINTAGE “card investor” is not fickle and is more sticky. I think investors who invest in t206, e90-1, goudeys, Ruth’s, 1952 Topps, etc, on whole, grow to enjoy the cards and start to morph into somewhat of a collector.
Cards are cool because you can hold them, they have a culture and fellowship (forums, shows, etc), they are dynamic and diverse, they have history, the players have stories and personalities. Cards are not bars of gold, mutual funds/stock, Bitcoin, or other more available investments. They can become much more personal, and it’s this quality that I believe makes the new entrant-investor sticky and insures many cards will retain real value. In other words, the supply is pretty fixed for vintage and the demand recently has been off the charts, and values have skyrocketed. Gross Supply won’t change much (bc cards are 100+ years old) and I don’t think demand goes down too much because the new demand is stickier. Thus, I think cards have unique qualities that make them a relatively safe investment, probably especially in times of inflation- I think the cards go up as inflation persists, but because of sticky investors, not stimulus checks, extra money bc of lockdown, etc
01-06-2022, 10:18 PM
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