Bursting Bubble

[68Hawk]

Today's collector isn't buying the way the wild eyed 90's collector was. Not grabbing everything in sight in pure blind hope... it's targeted and based on a punters eye for talent.
If they buy packs/boxes/cases or in to breaks, it's in the hope of landing a prized rookie from that year - one whose name they already know and are praying for, or high end material/parallels of established superstars.
The flotsam players they gather in the wash mostly go in the bin.
No one's building entire sets from an issue, holding all the cards hoping a gem player floats up from the dust. They build subsets of one players' cards, or a few from their team, that have specific meaning whether fan based or monetarily.

People aren't buying the huge amount of product that's being made because they believe somewhere within it all they'll get lucky opening it up in 5 years after it's sat gathering dust in the closet.
They make their estimation much like Mel Kiper or any other so called draft expert and hope to predict the next young big thing whose cards will be worth big big dollars.

The new collector isn't going to have 50,000 junk cards he's got $50K in to, and needing to dump because they didn't play out. He's going to have a selected collection that may or may not pan out, but will probably take 5-10 years to truly make that evaluation. So he holds, waits, and watches sports.

There are still plenty of high end collectors holding significant Aaron Rogers collections and Russell Wilson collections who believe there still a chance, with say a run of 3 super bowls somehow materializing, their fancied horse having a chance to be considered as all time greats.

They've had that money in those players for 10+ years.
There's no dump, no bubble. Price corrections sure, but in quality players a baseline of value for rarer material holds strong.
Just some wins, some losses, and next years possibles.
There are more non KC Chiefs supporting collectors on the Pat Mahomes thread in Blowout than the idiologues. They buy his cards because of the slight promise of what he may one day achieve.

In my opinion, the hobby is at the OPENING of a chance to go truly mainstream. No bubble, no overproduction, just a free floating market like the stock exchange with an enormous number of people participating and prices for players will flow up and down accordingly. Only way more enjoyable because sportcards are awesome - yes even modern - and can have meaning even outside of their financial performance.
Vintage should likely be the stable steady earner.

The idea that more people in means more likely bubble is silly.
In fact it's the opposite.
More in, more believers, better understanding that it's a market to play and just like stocks the long hold in blue chip is safe, and the flutter on speculatives can be exhilarating and rewarding or flat loss making.
Aaand, they will feel far more knowledgeable about what they own than the faceless stocks with fake profit loss sheets they're currently indentured to.

Or none of it might happen, and sportscards recede back into the niche it's always held.
We'll know pretty shortly. Next 12-24 months should tell everything.