Making sense of Nolan Ryan's stats and a belated hello

[moogpowell]

Hello! First post from a long time reader. In looking at investor/collector sentiment based on auction sale results, message boards, etc., among modern vintage players it appears that Ryan regularly ranks among the top five most in demand along with Rose and Henderson etc. I recognize he has geographic appeal having played in Texas, California and New York. And the Ventura piñata-fest shouldn't be underestimated in so far as legendary image-making is concerned for Ryan.

I also recognize that he is in the 300 win club with 324 wins and that he is the K king with 5,714. But he also led the league allowing the most walks in eight seasons and never won a Cy Young award (while underrated but somewhat kooky Steve Carlton has won 4 Cy Young awards). And over 162 games, Ryan averaged a 14-13 record. Granted, he played on teams with crappy offense and his career ERA of 3.19 is mighty respectable.

Is the strikeout an overrated glamour stat? Or not? If you have 3,000 hits you essentially are guaranteed a place in the HOF (I think a fair indictment of our adoration for bright shiny numbers) whereas for pitchers we don't make note of any shiny numbers aside from 300 wins. Perhaps the W is overrated (though recent statistical emphasis has diminished its standing making it look like the diner who wipes meat sauce off his cheek with his sleeve without considering that a dash of water - or wine - will blast the problem to oblivion).

Of course prices reflect popularity and demand. Warren Spahn is incredible and underrated but he (I hate to say it) of irregular angular proportions lacks the dreamy eyes of circa 1968-1969 Johnny Bench and will/may likely never have his "true value" discovered.

I recognize that the Ryan rookie is THE key rookie of the 1960s but based on empirical analysis and recognizing that Seaver is a high-number, I would rather have a Seaver rookie, especially as I think he was overall better than Ryan. In a long-winded way, I wonder if the "smart" decision is to sell Ryan and buy Seaver. It need not be relegated to the rookie. I also think that Steve Carlton cards are undervalued compared to Ryan. But I get it. Card prices reflect popularity and demand. Mantle may not have been the best but he captured hearts. And that underscores that we are humans, not AI bots who coldly process data.

I think Frank Robinson cards are underrated and that to a lesser extent so are Jim Palmer cards (yes, I am an Orioles fan but still...). I like Joe Morgan, Schmidt, Bench (all of whom are often considered the best at their respective positions) as well as Carlton.