10K for a Young portrait in a 5

[bounce]

Oh how quickly we've forgotten 2016. I understand it's not quite apples to apples, but the bigger point still applies. The Koufax example could be replaced by dozens if not hundreds of others.

1955 Topps Sandy Koufax PSA 7
- Prior to 2016, sells consistently under $2000
- Steadily climbs in price to May 2016 - when at least 4 cards sell over $6000, with a peak reported price of $6800
- July-Sept 2016 seems to settle back down in the $4000-4500 range (give or take 10%), with a couple exceptions as high as over $8000
- Steadily declines from there to $2500-ish first half of 2017
- Declines further during 2nd half of 2017 with several below $2000
- Bounced around between $2000-3000 all of 2018

1969 Topps Lew Alcindor PSA 8
- Prior to 2016, sub $2000 card
- Explodes in first half of 2016 to over $10000
- Collapsed back to $5000-ish last half of 2016, with one $14000 PWCC HE outlier
- Declined back to $4000-5000 mostly, with a handful of exceptions in the $8000 range that have literally impeccable centering and probably are bump candidates. A PSA 9 on this card is really tough and really rare.


This thread was about the Young, but there were numerous others from last night that were awfully big changes.

Red Chance 6 that I think had been crossed from SGC to PSA, took it from $1100 previously to $1850

Cobb bat off P5.5 $10200 - REA sold a nice 6! last year for $7800.

SGC 50 Red Cobb with registration that makes it appear he's looking up to the sky - $4100 - REALLY?!?!

Wajo P5 $7700 - that's DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3500 that are nice looking cards

Mathewson P5 $6200 - also nearly DOUBLE several previous sales of $3000-3600 for equally nice looking cards

Ruth 33 Goudey Yellow SGC 5 $15600 - marked high end despite L/R off center and mild tilt - similar cards sold earlier this year in the $10-11k range

38 Goudey Dimaggio 4 $4350 - similar cards were $3500 previously

I have owned 5s or better of all the Cobb, Johnson, Mathewson and Young portraits at one point or other in the past. It is just my opinion, but I don't consider any of those particularly RARE cards. These were very nice looking, but I've seen plenty of others that were also nice looking previously that weren't effectively double the previous selling prices. Yes, many of these sit in collections and somewhat off-limits, but that's not a forever phenomenon on these cards. That's much more applicable with the 7s and 8s - not the really pretty 5s.

I'm sure there are plenty of other examples, those above are just the ones that caught my eye because I was BLOWN OUT bidding on them. Undoubtedly there will be many more coming tonight with the mid-50s RCs.

One that interestingly went the other way was the Magie error. Seems like maybe someone got a heck of a deal on that if that's a card you're into.

Overall I do think these prices have shown the strength in the big name guys and their popular cards. However, what concerns me a bit more is what is really at the core of these prices and is it really a step change in price, or just some new entrants that got far too excited?

I think it's probably prudent to be cautious of drawing too many conclusions from this single auction.