New Poll: Which Active Players are 'Shoe-in' HOFers?

[the 'stache]

The perception of Beltre is hurt by the fact that he was a mediocre player for the first twelve seasons of his career (save a 2004 season that was atypical for him, to say the least). 100 is Major League Average for OPS +. The first twelve seasons in the bigs, 1998 to 2009, he had a career 105 OPS +. Never was an All Star, despite playing his first seven seasons in Los Angeles. Received MVP votes in that one season, no other. One Silver Slugger. Two Gold Gloves. Suddenly, when he moves on to Boston, and then Texas, two franchises who are indelibly linked with PEDs, his career takes off.

Here are his seasonal OPS metrics before he goes to the Red Sox (at age 31), and after he arrives.

2004: 163 (MVP runner up)
2005: 93 (7 points below league average. Hmm. Curious)
2006: 105 (5 points above league average)
2007: 112
2008: 109
2009: 83 (a whopping 17 points below league average. He was Ozzie Smith with the stick)
2010: moves to Boston. OPS + is suddenly 141 after having a composite 101 OPS + --league average-- for the last half decade. Hmm. Even more curious)
2011: moves to Texas. The next four years, his OPS + averages 138.

Here are his seasonal averages, from 1998 to 2009--the first twelve seasons of his career. He only played 77 games his rookie year, but this sample is based on an average of 140 games played per season. 573 plate appearances.

.270 AVG, 69 runs scored, 142 hits, 29 doubles, 21 home runs, 76 RBI, a slash line of .325 OBP/.423 SLG/.779 OPS. A 105 OPS+

If you exclude the one monster season where he hits 48 home runs (he never hit more than 26 in any of his other first 11 seasons--can you say Brady Anderson??), the first eleven seasons of his career, he's a .264 career hitter with a .318 OBP/.435 SLG/.753 OPS.

Here are the National League averages in OBP and SLG between 1998 and 2003:

OBP: .335
SLG: .412

And Beltre's composite stats over the same period:

OBP: .320 OBP
SLG: .428 SLG

His OBP for this six year period was 97, 3% below league average.

Then, he had his monster 2004 season.

Yet, after staying patient with Beltre for six years, when he finally breaks out, the Dodgers grant him free agency? Why?

So, he moves on to Seattle. Five years he spends there. And, again, he's awful offensively. Here are the American League averages between 2005 and 2009.

OBP: .336
SLG: .426

Beltre's stats?

OBP: .317
SLG: .442

Between 2005 and 2009, he's got a 101 OPS +. He's 1% above league average as an offensive player.

Excluding 2004, meaning 11 Major League seasons, Beltre's composite OPS + is a 98. He's 2% below Major League Average, offensively, for eleven seasons as a Big League third baseman. Third base is a premium offensive position. Are we supposed to just ignore the fact that he was an atrocious hitter for almost his entire career before he moved on to Boston? What, did he suddenly find the fountain of youth, and the fountain of "don't suck as a hitter" nestled somewhere inside the friendly confines of Fenway Park?

I'm sorry. Adrian Beltre is one of the best examples of a compiler I've ever seen. If you want to vote him in as a defensive stalwart, fine. But his career home runs, his hit total...they don't impress me.