paypal question

[milkit1]

so I have been dealing with this grapher in California for a while now having him get some cards signed for me. Ive probably spent about $500 in graphing costs. these are cards that involve getting multiple people on so when he has gotten some signed Ive paid and had him hold on to them in order to get the others. This guy is really slow at responding and sometimes doesnt reply at all (to texts, phone calls, etc).
Ive been asking him to mail some of my stuff back for about six weeks now. After about 4 weeks he told me he mailed the stuff to me (april 3) from California in what should be about a 14 by 8 box. The box still hasnt arrived and since last Thursday i have been contacting him about tracking and getting no response. Though it might still be possible that the box is coming i am beginning to assume it isnt. He has only mailed one package to me in the past and it literally took a month of hounding to get him to do that.
Anyways, I noticed that paypal has a 180 day resolution center that means most of my transactions are still within that time. I paid him as a transaction and listed on it what it was I was buying. Question: Since this wasnt a ebay transaction, what are the odds paypal will refund me my money?
I know this is kind of a unique situation but was hoping maybe someone might have had a similar experience?