vintage card prices

[Lordstan]

Michael,
As with all areas of collecting that are newer I think it is tough to predict. As many have commented, in the past, getting cards signed was considered defacement by purists. In a sense that sentiment has limited the number of cards available, especially in older sets. It's because of the limited availability, along with the OCD of the collectors, that have pushed up prices.
I remember about 4yrs ago when Paul put out his offer to pay $1000 for any signed t206. Prior to that you could purchase signed t206s, when they showed up on ebay, for between $100-$300. His offer not only made people more interested because of his obvious passion, but also raised the prices as they could always sell to him.
I think there will be a plateau at some point. Most of the rarer cards will hold their value, while lesser one will probably drop a little.

Mike and Clyde,
I disagree with both of you to a degree. Provenance has a place in autograph collecting, but it is only one variable that one should consider. I have bought many an autograph with little or no provenance, because I was very comfortable with the specific form of the signature. I have also passed on things with supposed great provenance because I just didn't think it looked like it should.

best to all,
Mark