players most famous by decade

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Posted By: chris cathcart

To answer my own question above, I did a little figuring with another James tool, the Favorite Toy projection method.

Basically, find an "established pace," (take the most recent season, multiply that amount by three, next recent season multiplied by two, third most recent season weighted only by one, then take the entire sum and divide by 3+2+1, or 6) then multiply that by half of the number of years between the player's most-recent-season age and age 42. Half that number in A-Rod's case would be 7. The "established pace" is -- not having the exact numbers handy, is approximately between 30 and 35 Win Shares. Assume 33 Win Shares, multipled by 7, which gives us 231. A-Rod has approximately 260 career Win Shares through this past season, so this puts him at just about 500 projected for this career. That would put him among the top 20 of all-time for career Win Shares, and in the top, uh, 4? for players whose careers began within the last 50 years. (Others being Bonds by a huge margin, Rose via great play combined with amazing longevity, Rickey Henderson, and Joe Morgan. Oh, Frank Robinson, too, technically, seeing as his career started in '56. The frequency of 500-Win-Share careers has gone down over time despite an increase in player population. Bonds simply towers over everyone else, allegedly-steroid-enhanced or not.)


Everyday players with approximately 500, along with approximate career total:

1. Ruth - 756
2. Cobb - 720
3. Bonds - 665
4. Wagner - 655
5. Aaron - 643
6. Mays - 641
7. Speaker - 630
8. Musial - 610
9. Collins - 570
10. Mantle - 565
11. Williams - 560
12. Rose - 550
13. Henderson - 540
14-19. Robinson, Morgan, Hornsby, Gehrig, Lajoie, Ott - 500 to 520

(Among pitchers, Cy Young [over 600] and Walter Johnson have over 500 career Win Shares.)

Reads off a lot like a 500-career-HR list, only this one counts everything, not just HR. Note the skewing towards old-timers near the top of the list; make the appropriate adjustments and Mays and Aaron come out at least comparable to Cobb in the analysis. By the same analysis, it puts Bonds at or ahead of Ruth with a few seasons to go.