Low Pop/ High Grade Commons

[Archive]

Posted By: Fred C

The first thing that hits me when I think of Low Pop / High Grade Commons is the word COMMONS. I've heard that people will pay over the top prices for card board that has a low population but high grade. What if the card is from 1957 and it is the only "10" for that particular common. Someone might spend $1K on it because "it's the ONLY ONE". Doesn't this seem foolish on two fronts:

1. It's a card that was given a SUBJECTIVE numerical grade
   
2. It's a common
   

What would happen if, in the next couple of months, people started searching for nice looking RAW Low Pop Commons so they could submit them for grading. What if the submitted cards increased the population of the highest graded card to 4 (from 1 or even 2). What would happen to the value of the card(s) that were the highest graded when the population was low? To me there are probably LOTS of ungraded commons out there.

[Archive]

Posted By: Jeff Prizner

you can't really use logic when it comes to collecting cards... this recently went for almost $48k by the way.

[Archive]

Posted By: JimB

Some issues (like anything Topps) are a lot more susceptible to changes among low pop high grade cards. Even with the spectacular find of E93s this year, this one was not topped. I think the find produced a 7 or 7.5.
JimB

[Archive]

Posted By: David M

Fred, I agree with what you are saying for any newer issues (post war). If I wanted a high grade common from 1957 to use your example, I would buy several that looked like 8's to 9's raw and submit them. I might strike out, but I could get a heck of a lot of commons graded for what someone is willing to pay for that same card in a grade 9 or 10. There are an awful lot of these more modern cards out there that haven't been graded. These population reports are really showing an artificial shortage of certain cards, because most haven't been or will never be submitted. I'm sure there are exceptions, but to pay $2878 for a 1979 Rose is insane. See the link.
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&it em=200309615415

[Archive]

Posted By: Marty Ogelvie

It seems insane to me. Just one more 1979 Topps Rose graded at a 10 will drastically hurt the value of the one that just sold but I have to believe the BUYER is not purchasing for investment but rather to have the highest grade possible. If the buyer never intends to sell, then does it really matter what the market value is?

marty

PS> I would LOVE to own those pre WAR (PSA9 and 10) cards.. wow.. incredible. I can see the fascination with such beauties!!!

[Archive]

Posted By: Fred C

Marty,

You are absolutley right, if the seller doesn't intend to sell it then I guess there is on monetary damage to them. I don't think I'll ever be in that position to piss my money away. Even if I had that much money I couldn't do it. But then, it's relative, $10,000 to me may be chump change to the person that spends crazy money on Low Pop / High Grade Commons.

David,

You're right also. I think the pictures in posted above show some pretty nice pre-war material that has a much less likely chance of being surpassed on the grading scales. Then again, this is subjective and I'd have a difficult time spending lots of money on a label. I bet if we put 50 cards graded 8-10 together (with the grades covered) we'd get differing opinions on the grades for each card.

That would be a fun contest to run. Have 50 different high grade cards at the National and let everyone try to see if they could guess the grades. Who ever has the most correct grades wins a pair of eye glasses and a PSA scholarship to become "the countries next best grader".

[Archive]

Posted By: Jamie

That's the danger with high grade/low pop commons... that more will come along!!! You've got to buy carefully, and have luck on your side. It helps if you rig the odds in your favor and buy old stuff, not 1979 Topps. I am guessing that it was bought by someone who is collecting Pete Rose cards, and perhaps Rose cards in gem mint. If you've got $1million to collect cards with, and own all the other Rose cards in gem mint, then wouldn't you splash $3k to finish your collection? I probably would, even if more exist at a later date.

But the price is a bubble, no doubt, because it's not a truly rare card. I'm sure more 10s will come along.

[Archive]

Posted By: leon

My opinion, and you nailed it too, is not "if" more '79 Gem Mint Rose's get found, but how many?