Yeah about $100 dollars..about $100 dollars yeah.

[Archive]

Posted By: John

Topic # 3


In the past collectors had a pretty good idea of value from something as simple as a Beckett or SCD price guide/catalog. Today however it seems card prices are harder and harder to gauge or at least in my experiences. Some items going for 3x what I thought and some items going for much less. Graded cards all in the same grade going for prices all over the board for the same card. It seems card prices have always fluctuated a little and some a lot. So with a little insight from some of you maybe we can get a better idea of how to be smarter collectors too.

I also realize a card is also worth what somebody is willing to pay for it too. But if I paid $80 for a 1959 Walt Dropo in VG condition many of you would think I should have known better or grossly overpaid.

So I raise these questions:

1.)What items have you seen that went for much more than they should have in your opinion ?

2.)What items are just to overpriced right now and may come down soon in your opinion?

3.)What items are a cheap and affordable right now and may not be in the near future in your opinion?

4.)Which auction houses or dealers are fair and who’s overpriced in your opinion?

5.)Which guides or information sources do you use?

6.)Which items can you throw the price guide out on in your opinion?

7.)What’s the ballpark price wise for items you collect both HOFer and common in your experiances?

8.)And what basic safety measures do you take while shopping on eBay?

Thanks in advance for your answers.

I also realize some of the answers to the above questions can be found here.
http://www.cycleback.com/beginnerstips.html>

[Archive]

Posted By: warshawlaw

growth items: prewar and 19th century boxing. We've seen strong price growth this year but I think there is much more upside potential, esp. with high grade cards in slabs.

overpriced items: E cards.

underpriced items: postcards. some real bargains out there.

Stuff that sells for way too much: 9 and 10 slabbed postwar cards, esp. 1970's cards. I've gotten a few back from SGC in 9; the difference from 8 to 9 to 10 is negligible and certainly not worth the premium paid. I recall just a few years ago that 8's were touted by the auctioneers as the primo cards, until enough collectors had 8's and could compete with auctioneers on ebay. Then all of a sudden it is the 9 and 10 that are the primo investment cards. It is bull****, same as stock speculation in internet companies was.

ebay safety: read the feedback on the seller of anything expensive; if the item is expensive and you cannot take the loss only use a seller with paypal or credit card potential so you can protest if there is a problem; get all over a seller who is late with an item and do not hesitate to apply for a refund from paypal and/or protest a credit card charge, because the seller can always make good; stay away from high end cards in raw form from amateur, unknown sellers unless they are local to you (so you can take them to court and/or take them apart if they cheat you); never bid in an auction with a seller who has private feedback or a private auction; never bid on an item where the seller invokes the name of God (esp. God bless you in the listing--a sure sign of a cheat ); never bid on an item where the seller says it may be fake--it is fake; always opt for postal insurance on expensive items because it forces the seller to create a record of shipping something when he goes to the post office to drop it off; never bid on an item if there are problems of any sort, walk away and don't bid.

[Archive]

Posted By: runscott

There are a lot of people in this hobby with lots and lots of discretionary income - some of them will spend whatever it takes to get an item they want - absolutely no limits; others will spend 2-3X market value, and consider it a luxury tax, or otherwise rationalize why they had to spend more than perceived market value to get an item they absolutely had to have. We know a few collectors on this board who fit into these categories, and a few gouging dealers who absolutely love it! Re-selling such purchases during hard times can be an eye-opener.

Sometimes you have longer-lasting price increases that eventually also drop off, but that usually takes more than 1-2 collectors on a spending spree. The e-card frenzies a year ago, and the PSA-graded t206 frenzies come to mind. Enough people to drive up the prices temporarily, but not enough for them to stay there.

Also, you can't decide that when two high-rollers get in a battle over something that the resulting massive price increase is the new market value. Once they each have their copy of the item, the price might drop a lot (item becomes available cheaper). Hal said something about bidding up an item to protect the "value" of his own personal example, but I don't know if that worked for him or not. If a third example popped up and he tried this, he might just find himself with two copies...or three...or four.

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe P.

The replies will vastly differ due to their perception.

The members of the cast are:

1. The hopeless Collectors.

2. The Plastic Speculators.

3. Collectors that collect with a possible future gain mindset.

4. Speculators that find themselves collecting under an inner protest that tells them that everything has a price.

All of the above, and more, are legit cast members of this play.

From their vantage point their answers will be true to them, as mine is to me.

If for some reason there's an unforseen 1929 style crash in the credibility of the plastic market -- most of your questions will be unnecessary.
Hopefully that wont happen, but I see just as many questions in plastic grading as there were among the ones that taught themselves to grade their own, prior to the beautiful plastic caskets.

Just my take.

[Archive]

Posted By: John

Good point Joe,

But I hope all the posts differ and we don’t all have the same opinion. I wasn’t looking for an exact response from anyone just more of the broad general ideas you have not unlike Adam’s post. Once again you don’t have to answer them all.

P.S. Are all card collectors so analytical?

[Archive]

Posted By: Jason

Registries certainly lend a hand in us seeing crazy prices.

Being a collector of T201's. I've seen some crazy prices on cards in PSA 6, 7 and 8 of late.

Just a couple of weeks ago a couple of guys went hard after a bunch of SGC 80's. It made for some weird prices. I saw a Cicotte SGC 80 go for 3x's SMR and actually go higher then an SGC 84 Payne and Walsh. (Both of which were being sold by the same seller)

I saw an SGC 80 Daubert/Rucker got for 2.75x SMR and actually out price a Brown/Hofman of the same grade for 80 bucks.

All of this of course was just intense bidding between two individuals.

Neither one of them wanted the Laporte/Stephens SGC 80 which I picked up for 151.00 which is slightly above SGC, and the the SGC 80 Thomas/Coombs went for 137.00 because nobody including myself needed that one.

[Archive]

Posted By: Judge Dred

John,

Are you still waiting for that conference call?

[Archive]

Posted By: Hal Lewis

Some idiot just overpaid by a ton to get a 1927 Lou Gehrig York Caramel rookie card on EBay in crappy shape.

You just never know.

[Archive]

Posted By: runscott

BTW, I've fallen into the "got to have it" category a few times. Normally I keep a check on my emotions, write down a ceiling bid, and don't go over it regardless. That way I can have a glass or two of red wine, watch the bidding, and not make that mistake we make too often...(rationalizing).

Biggest overpay was an 8 x 10 Frances Burke Ed Reulbach photo that was very similar to his t206 pose, possibly from the same film shoot. I had to have it! I did the same with an Ed Reulbach autograph two years ago.

[Archive]

Posted By: Hal Lewis

I guess I could LIE and say that I meant to bid $200 and accidentally hit an extra zero...

and then had too much integrity to cancel my bid!

[Archive]

Posted By: hankron

For the collector, or whomever, the best way to get a handle on pricing and value is by following auctions and, most important, regularly selling. Watching MastroNet or a price guide is no substitute for selling. When I consider bidding on something, a key question I ask myself is "What could I sell this for?" Unless you are an active seller, you can't answer the question knowledgeably.

In other words, for people who have only bought bought bought, turning to sell is a reality check.

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe P.

John:
"Good point Joe,

But I hope all the posts differ and we don’t all have the same opinion. I wasn’t looking for an exact response from anyone just more of the broad general ideas you have not unlike Adam’s post. Once again you don’t have to answer them all."
*
*
John, I Luv'd Adams post.
Please don't get me wrong.
I'm for difference of opinion.
I'm for listening to a point of view on a topic viewed from a different street than mine.
The day that you and I stop listening to anothers take, that's the day that we stop learning.
John I'm about to tell you something that's going to boggle your mind.
Don't try and stop me, I've got to get it off my chest.

YES!
There have been times that after digesting, disecting and examining an opposing view from another street, I have reviewed my original stance and adjusted it.
There, I said it, and I feel better for it.

Bring on the different views.
---------------------------------
JOHN:
"P.S. Are all card collectors so analytical?"
*
*
Only if they've been around a long long long time.

Analytical: a good word for Lunacy.

[Archive]

Posted By: Gilbert Maines

I too have (and continue to) overpay by a ton when something I have been looking for becomes available. But these are not impulse purchases, I think, as much as they are the completion of a quest.

Let me cite one example: (will I admit this? yes.) I paid >$600 for a Blue Ruth W517 portrait - I think it was a 5. The blue color was the key. I have not seen one since. But other colors of the same card and quality go for half or less of that price.

And that is also the key. I may overpay in proportion to the length of time I have been seasrching for a specific card.

************************************************** *******************

Ahh ha! A free investment tip? Sure.

The State of NJ is manufacturing baseball cards called the Living Legends Set. Each $2. card contains three players portrayed in the style of the 1938 Goudeys (that is: a photo type face situated on a caricature body).

The point here is that essentially none of these cards will survive in Mint condition. So you have virtual certain, short term grade rarity. These cards are also scratch off lottery tickets. That is why they will experience the anticipated grade attrition. Significant upside potential, and if you change your mind about this investment - just scratch 'em off - even more upside, if you feel lucky!

Have fun, its only cards.
Gil

[Archive]

Posted By: Mark

I think the set registries are really bringing back set collectors and they definitely drive up pricing. I've seen many instances of bids that are way too high from a name I recognize as a set builder looking for that particular card.

I'm working on a nice ungraded 63-64 Parkhurst hockey set. When I started I determined I would never pay even low Beckett for the cards I want in the condition I wanted - I saw that there were plenty of cards offered and I felt I had all the time in the world. I got the first 30 or so at my price. As my set nears completion I've lost all patience and if I see one of the cards I still need in the condition I want I'm after it and my pricing discipline is out the window. Its the same with other sets I'm working on.

[Archive]

Posted By: Joe P.

[Archive]

Posted By: Tbob

I would respectfully disagree with the "most overpriced" monicker for e-cards. For a long, long time they were the red headed step children of the tobacco card sets but collectors have recognized a) their rarity b) their condition sensitiveness (is that a word?) and most of all c) they're very distinctive looking when compared to the tobacco sets. The E90-1 through E103 cards are not overpriced in my mind, they are simply reaching their proper price levels since they were undervalued for so many years.

[Archive]

Posted By: Tim Mayer

I wish I were a smarter collector,,but I am failure, so I am waitng for the right answer haha...

I love cards,,,I collect what I like,,,that said I started doing shows , not for the money, but to network and meet people,,I love seeing and talking cards..the price guides ruin me,,,I think they are done real well, but it seems I stink at simple business,,,buy low sell high,,,

if it's edgy or cool, I always seem to have to pay over book when I buy,,,when I get to my shows it seems like every card I sell gets questioned,,,whats the book,,,etc,,,,I sell cards at a loss all the time...If I think someone really wants a card, or really loves it, or it's a kid, I fold,,,you know what..oh well it's only cardboard...

[Archive]

Posted By: Julie Vognar

1) Something I've been wanting for a long time. It'll usually be 19th century.
2) the last card in a set I need. Having only finished about 5 sets in my whole life, this hasn't happened very often.

Game cards are underpriced. Some are beautiful--or have beautiful cards in them. The WG1 is beautiful; the National Game has beautiful cards in it, as does the Polo Grounds. The E.R. Williams set is quaint and attractive, and has two players on each card--a FAIRLY good likeness. Some of the Fan Craze portraits are wonderful, and can be found nowhere else (Duffy and Hanlon come to mind; the Lajoie and Plank, though not the only uses of the particular picture, seem partricularly magnificent because of their generous size).

Many of the prices in the new Catalogue are STAGGERING; it's also news to me that Peck and Snyder never made a baseball card...

The photo of Hoffman in John's original post is from "Rain Man," with T206 substituted for other viewing matter.

[Archive]

Posted By: Peter

I'll answer the inverse of question #1, only because I want to slip in the auction that's really bothering me. And it is actually post-war so forgive me. 1953 Bowman Billy Martin & Phil Rizzuto. PSA 6s are going for ungodly sums in the $250-$350 range. Seller listed one in a PSA 5 and for some reason, it only went for around $90.

I was planning to bid on it, but forgot to log on until 10 minutes after it ended. Still kicking myself.