A Great Debate?

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Posted By: JSherman

Hi everyone... I am a newbie to this Forum, at least in posting, since I have been reading posts here for quite a while. I also belong to the CU board (no boos or hisses, please), and am an avid eBay-er. I have been collecting sports cards for almost 15 years now, and non-sports for almost four.

My main focus is on the BTW cards ("Between The Wars"), which many people simply call "pre-war," but, given the strength in the pre-WW1 collecting market, I think it may be time to distinguish pre-WW1 and BTW cards. Anyway, that wasn't my "great debate" question.

Here it is: there are collectors, and there are investors, and there are collector investors who combine the best (or worst?) elements of each. The old adage, exceptionally true nowadays, is "collect what you like." However, if you are an investor, or collector investor (i.e., someone with the capacity to invest in most anything, but invests in cards/memorabilia for the love of the content), what would you buy? Assuming you weren't committed to speculating on the newest inserts and chase cards, and were looking for solid, consistent returns, are there cards to which your focus would gravitate? Are BTW cards in PSA 7 or above from the most popular sets a good "buy"? Are pre-WW1 cards in any shape, but of HOFers, a better "buy"?

I see that there has been some observation about this Forum focusing mostly on the pre-WW1 era, but my focus is predominantly BTW cards, so if I can help anyone out, or lend some insight, I hope I can contribute something worthwhile. Thanks everyone!!

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Posted By: Julie Vognar

I don't know from nothin, but these tweo sets are selling well below the list prices in the 2002 guide.

I collect both.

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Posted By: Tom Lawrie

This is a horrible hobby for investing. Even collector-investing if you want to make a profit. It's great if you just want a hobby where you can probably eventually sell the cards for close to what you paid for them. But that makes no sense from an investing standpoint, unless you lost your ass in tech stocks and see zero growth as a positive.

Even if you were to consign your cards to a top auction house at some point in the future and maximize your return, they would still take 15%. And unless you got a great deal, you probably paid 15% juice in some form or another when you bought the cards in the first place. So unless your cards increase in value by 30% or more, you haven't made a dime.

Plus, as a recent article in VCBC points out, when a collector sells, they still have to pay income tax on the total sale price; it's better to be considered a dealer in such a case. But then you're no longer an investor.

So buy and collect for the love of the hobby. Otherwise you're better off investing in some crummy low-yield savings account than you are in cards.

So why does anybody ever buy cards for their collection? Because they can enjoy the cards now, and they may not be able to afford or locate them in the future.

OK, OK, I didn't answer the real question: which cards from 1917 to 1941 (or 1945 depending on cutoff) have the most potential to increase in value? I guess a set that has either moderate or moderately high production but with the potential for demand to skyrocket, or a set with very low production and the potential for demand to go up some.

- For moderate quantity, potential to skyrocket: I would guess some of the caramel sets from the 1920s, like E120s, E121s, E220s, E210s, etc. Great hall of famers, you see quite a few out there, but they don't seem to have gone up outrageously in price. Also, some sets like Sport Kings, which are in moderate quantity but are collected by a lot of different segments of the card hobby overall. Many of these cards - especially in nice intermediate conditions, anywhere from a 4 to a 7 - can be had for very reasonable prices (except for the Ruth and Cobb). Anything in PSA-8 or higher in any of these sets is already priced really high, so may not go up at all in the future unless you get a great deal. On the other hand, most Goudeys (and even the lower quantity US Caramels and DeLongs) seem like they've already gone up quite a bit in price over the last few years (in all conditions), so it's hard to say whether they would increase much more in the immediate future. The exception may be the 1941 Goudeys because of their lower production, poor paper quality, and art deco look (or whatever you call it); as a result nice cards are in demand and probably can go up in price.

- For low quantity, potential to go up some: obscure hall of fame rookies, some Cuban issues, Zeenuts, and a lot of the other low volume regional PCL cards if you can ever locate them. Some examples of the latter include: Centennial Flour Seattle Rainiers (issued in 1943, 1944, 1945, and 1947); 1940 Hughes Frozen Confections Sacramento Salons; and Mrs. Sherlock Bread pins of the Toledo Mud Hens (1920, 1922, and 1933). I'm sure there are a bunch more. (Go to a recent issue of VCBC and look up Marc Macrae's number in California; he is more than happy to share his great knowledge of PCL cards.) I would also mention the 1936 World Wide Gum (Canadian Goudeys) set of major and minor league players as an issue with low quantity and with some potential. Many people consider this to contain Joe DiMaggio's true rookie card; plus there are nice cards of Gehrig, Foxx, Dizzy Dean, Connie Mack, etc. None of the major sets issued in the U.S. during this era come anywhere close to the selection.

Most of these different cards that I discussed appear in one form or another in Mastro's current auction -

http://mastronet.com/index.cfm?Action=DisplayContent&ContentName=Current%20Auction

Lew Lipset similarly has a lot of the more obscure and desirable cards in his auctions - here's the link, though I'm not sure when his next auction is scheduled:

http://www.oldjudge.com/oldjudge/web/

Just my opinion.

Good luck,
Tom

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Posted By: Tom Lawrie

p.s. For all of the smart-asses out there: I know Toledo is not in the PCL; nonetheless, Mrs. Sherlock's Bread has some potential. (The pins, you knuckleheads, not the petrified dough.)

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Posted By: B. Hodes

I think that over the past few years the interest in vintage has generally drifted towards the pre-WWI cards and away from the inter-war cards you (the person who originated this thread) are planning on focusing on. That is an oberservation that should not direct your collecting but it is reflected I think in the price guide's general overvaluation of the primary sets from the inter-war years (the gum cards by National Chicle, Goudey and Playball circa 1933-1941).
As for investing I would not generally recommend investing money in cards even in the present stock market. But because nice vintage cards are not cheap it is worth considering what cards are most likely to appreciate. Here I would go with:
1) high condition specimens as determined by the appropriate 3 letter wonders (grading services such as PSA, SGC, GAI for vintage cards); or
2) The greatest and most famous players of the era by which I mean not merely the Hall of famers but best and/or most famous Hall of Famers (Gehrig, Ruth, DiMaggio and Williams etc.) rather than the lesser lights (Kelly, Mannush, Hafey, Penncok etc.) in virtually any condition; or
3) If you have really big money -- cards of the players in #2 in the condition of #1.
I hope this helps a bit.

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Posted By: Scott M

Invest in the cards that you enjoy - you only get to live once and I don't know of too many people that take out their bonds and talk about them. Then again, maybe I just hang out with the wrong crowd.

Regards

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Posted By: David

I don't worry about about future value. I try to buy quality (it would take a library of books to pin down the meaning of that word), and buy it at a cheap price related to its current value (value shouldn't be confused with book price, and most stuff I buy doesn't have a price guide anyway). Even if investing, it defeats the purpose to pay too much initially.

To be honest, 'investing' in this context is a strange concept to me. I'm sure there are wise collectable investors and collectors who see their collection's value rise, but investment is not a concept I even think about. To me longterm investing in collectables refers to the crap I can't sell that sits under tarp in the basement.

"Don't worry abut it," I tell the wife, "It's an investment."

"I want it out of here by Monday or your ass is grass," My wife says.

By the way, anyone looking for a case of 1988 Fleer?

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Posted By: David

I'm not a trading card person, but in esoteric areas I find much undervalued (my opinion) material and also, due to the inefficency of the auctions/sales, many great deals for long term holding. I specialize in baseball photographs and find many areas (ambrotypes, for example) where the prices are surprising almost unjustifiably low for the quality. Of course, just as with some players, some material will always be underrated.