The future of Shohei Ohtani

[BobbyStrawberry]

A big difference with now vs. earlier eras is that sacrificing contact for power is not only acceptable now, but for many players, the best way toward a big payday. Guys like Schwarber (with his .199 BA and 43 HRs) are super valuable and highly sought after in the current game.

Of course, the Acunas and Corbin Carrolls with speed and power are the gems, but there are only so many of those guys

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

A big difference with now vs. earlier eras is that sacrificing contact for power is not only acceptable now, but for many players, the best way toward a big payday. Guys like Schwarber (with his .199 BA and 43 HRs) are super valuable and highly sought after in the current game.

Of course, the Acunas and Corbin Carrolls with speed and power are the gems, but there are only so many of those guys

Kingman was ahead of his time.

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Kingman was ahead of his time.

Not a good on base guy, though. Harmon Killebrew might be a good comp for a guy like Alonso, although Pete is not as good at getting on base

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Not a good on base guy, though. Harmon Killebrew might be a good comp for a guy like Alonso, although Pete is not as good at getting on base

Good point re: Killebrew. I added him to the table. He definitely had much better plate discipline than Alonso. Alonso strikes out 2.2 times for every walk. Killebrew walked almost as much as he struck out. Killebrew lead the League in walks a bunch of times.

Nothing better to do while watching the Mets tonight. Alonso just drove in Lindor by the way.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Not a good on base guy, though. Harmon Killebrew might be a good comp for a guy like Alonso, although Pete is not as good at getting on base

I guess I am skewed a bit on Alonso by this year. Still, I am holding off on his RC lol.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

I don't know that we can lump Pete Alonso into the group of high strikeout/low average folks you mentioned, just yet.

His career WAR of 17.6 in 4.5 seasons is already almost as high as the career totals for Dunn (17.9), Thomas (19.8), and is higher than Kingman (17.3), Deer (13.8).

This got me thinking though, so I put together the below table to compare and added a few other sluggers (Howard, Kiner, Ortiz, and Thome).

A few things jumped out: Alonso's Strikeout to At-bat rate of 26% is lower than most others. But his walk rate is per Plate Appearance is lower than all of them except Kingman.

His HR/AB is the highest, and is actually even higher this year at 8.9%.

What I fear is that because he is a very large man, he may not age well. And he started his career relatively late, getting to the majors at age 24. Thome is a large man who aged well, but many think he did Roids. Same for Ortiz.

I don't recall hearing speculation about Thome and steroids. Where have you seen that? Any sources you can provide? Ortiz, yes, because of the survey test that he supposedly failed, but nothing I remember being said about Thome.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by G1911

What gets me is that strikeouts are treated as if they are meaningless for a batter, a not very significant measure and it's okay to rack up 150-200 of them.

Yet, they are treated as very important, one of the most important measures, for a pitcher.

As this is a direct adversarial relationship, this doesn't make sense. If a particular outcome of a plate appearance is really important positively for a pitcher, it is really bad for a batter and vice versa.

I don't so much care that we either go back to not liking batter strikeouts or not, but this should be consistent.

I think analytics has a lot to do with this thinking. For hitters, the thinking, if I remember correctly, is that a strikeout is better then hitting into a double play so a high strikeout total is no big deal. For pitchers, strikeouts are good because you don't have to worry about fielders making a play. That’s why they're important for pitchers but not a concern for hitters. Not sure I agree with the thinking for hitters since a lot of good things can happen when you just put the ball in play.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by jayshum

I don't recall hearing speculation about Thome and steroids. Where have you seen that? Any sources you can provide? Ortiz, yes, because of the survey test that he supposedly failed, but nothing I remember being said about Thome.

Its just a lot of speculation like there is about Piazza because he was a big guy who hit a lot of home runs during the steroid era. There is no hard evidence at all that I am aware of. I hope Thome didn't use steroids, as that gives me hope that Alonso can age well too.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by cgjackson222

Its just a lot of speculation like there is about Piazza because he was a big guy who hit a lot of home runs during the steroid era. There is no hard evidence at all that I am aware of. I hope Thome didn't use steroids, as that gives me hope that Alonso can age well too.

The article you linked to says Thome had never been known to or thought to use steroids. The only speculation in it is about whether writers will hold him being big against him when he appears on the HoF ballot 5 years from when the article was written. To me that's a lot different than speculating that Thome used steroids because the players that the article seems to be putting in the same group as Thome are Piazza, Bagwell and Biggio. It says none of them are suspected of steroid use, but I think Piazza and Bagwell are by a fair amount of people. Biggio isn't thought to be a user as far as I remember, but I think he didn't get in first ballot for other reasons. Some people think he played a long time which git him to 3000 hits and not because he wasca truly great player.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by jayshum

The article you linked to says Thome had never been known to or thought to use steroids. The only speculation in it is about whether writers will hold him being big against him when he appears on the HoF ballot 5 years from when the article was written. To me that's a lot different than speculating that Thome used steroids because the players that the article seems to be putting in the same group as Thome are Piazza, Bagwell and Biggio. It says none of them are suspected of steroid use, but I think Piazza and Bagwell are by a fair amount of people. Biggio isn't thought to be a user as far as I remember, but I think he didn't get in first ballot for other reasons. Some people think he played a long time which git him to 3000 hits and not because he wasca truly great player.

Yeah, I am just talking about how everyone from that era who hit a lot of home runs get lumped together for potentially using steroids, with our without evidence. https://larrybrownsports.com/basebal...im-thome/82686
I wasn't trying to single out Thome, per se.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Don't look now, but Julio making a serious run at MVP.

[packs]

Wow didn’t realize Julio had turned it on so much. He’s hit 352 in the second half.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Wow didn’t realize Julio had turned it on so much. He’s hit 352 in the second half.

And he's on a real team. If Shohei is shut down and Julio stays hot for the next three weeks, who knows.

[bk400]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

And he's on a real team. If Shohei is shut down and Julio stays hot for the next three weeks, who knows.

Stupid question, perhaps, but why don't they do the MVP voting after the postseason is over? Not just for baseball, but for football as well. I would have thought that postseason play (if any) should be taken into account when evaluating a player's value to a team.

I admire Ohtani for a variety of reasons. Trout also. But I suspect that it's easier to perform on the field when 1/5 of your games are meaningless.

[Seven]

The Latest: https://twitter.com/SamBlum3/status/...sle3G3xPw&s=19

For those that don't have Twitter/X

Ohtani's locker has been cleared out, looks like he's done for the year/done as an Angel. On the subject of MVP, I wouldn't be surprised if Julio wins it, should his historic 2nd half performance continue. Ohtani has also most likely played his last game as a Halo.

[mrreality68]

Originally Posted by Seven

The Latest: https://twitter.com/SamBlum3/status/...sle3G3xPw&s=19

For those that don't have Twitter/X

Ohtani's locker has been cleared out, looks like he's done for the year/done as an Angel. On the subject of MVP, I wouldn't be surprised if Julio wins it, should his historic 2nd half performance continue. Ohtani has also most likely played his last game as a Halo.

Ohtani has the lead but Julio and Corey have been closing the gap. With 16 games left and if Ohtani is not playing that lead is at risk

and also not the Final 2 months that the Angels or their fans were hoping for. I am sure they will start getting ripped in the off season for not trading him and getting something in return.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Seven

The Latest: https://twitter.com/SamBlum3/status/...sle3G3xPw&s=19

For those that don't have Twitter/X

Ohtani's locker has been cleared out, looks like he's done for the year/done as an Angel. On the subject of MVP, I wouldn't be surprised if Julio wins it, should his historic 2nd half performance continue. Ohtani has also most likely played his last game as a Halo.

What a season for Angels fans.

[BobbyStrawberry]

And now the full-time speculation can begin - where will he sign?

My prediction for top 5 most likely destinations

1. LAD
2. SDP
3. SEA
4. SFG
5. NYM

[frankbmd]

Would any GM in their right mind pursue and sign Nellie Fox today?

Without googling I bet no one can name the four players who struck out more in one season than Nellie did in 19 seasons.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would any GM in their right mind pursue and sign Nellie Fox today?

Without googling I bet no one can name the four players who struck out more in one season than Nellie did in 19 seasons.

I'll go out on a limb and say all 4 players accomplished this amazing feat in the last 10 years or so.

I'm going to guess, Chris Davis, Adam Dunn and probably a couple other guys I wouldn't suspect.

[frankbmd]

Davis and Dunn are #2 and #3. Way to go Dave

[Seven]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would any GM in their right mind pursue and sign Nellie Fox today?

Without googling I bet no one can name the four players who struck out more in one season than Nellie did in 19 seasons.

I feel the game is so radically different, today, than of that era. However for the sake of the question, Nellie Fox would be very highly paid in todays game. Very good contact/gap hitter, with solid speed and elite defense is handsomely awarded in really any era.

And to answer I would wager

Schwarber
Chris Davis
Adam Dunn
Mark Reynolds

[refz]

Boston may be a possibility for him to go, as his buddy Yoshida plays there. If he moves at all, I’d bet he settles on a west coast team.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Seven

I feel the game is so radically different, today, than of that era. However for the sake of the question, Nellie Fox would be very highly paid in todays game. Very good contact/gap hitter, with solid speed and elite defense is handsomely awarded in really any era.

And to answer I would wager

Schwarber
Chris Davis
Adam Dunn
Mark Reynolds

Reynolds is #1, but Schwarber is not #4.

[hockeyhockey]

Originally Posted by frankbmd

Would any GM in their right mind pursue and sign Nellie Fox today?

Without googling I bet no one can name the four players who struck out more in one season than Nellie did in 19 seasons.

rob deer? i remember following him during his career. even caught a ball he hit into the empty LF seats at the old cleveland stadium during BP once.

[frankbmd]

Deer is a good choice, but incorrect.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Has anyone gussed Gallo yet?

[G1911]

Moncada

[jethrod3]

I thought it might be Dave Kingman. Lots of home runs but also lots of Ks!

[frankbmd]

Gallo no
Kingman no

Moncada. BINGO

[mrreality68]

Very disappointed that Ohtani packed up his locker and left.

Should have stayed with the team until the end of the season.

I mean he did take some warm up before they put him on the injured list.

And now he is in Japan not with his team and he locker is empty does not have a good look.
Even when others are injured they do not empty their lockers out. Looks like he abandoned them and are not coming back

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by mrreality68

Very disappointed that Ohtani packed up his locker and left.

Should have stayed with the team until the end of the season.

I mean he did take some warm up before they put him on the injured list.

And now he is in Japan not with his team and he locker is empty does not have a good look.
Even when others are injured they do not empty their lockers out. Looks like he abandoned them and are not coming back

I was a bit surprised by this as well. I am sure there is a backstory. Maybe management wanted him gone, assuming he told them he was not interested in re signing with them? Anyhow, Ohtani Act II will be very interesting. Many unanswered questions.

[cgjackson222]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I was a bit surprised by this as well. I am sure there is a backstory. Maybe management wanted him gone, assuming he told them he was not interested in re signing with them? Anyhow, Ohtani Act II will be very interesting. Many unanswered questions.

So Ohtani has already had his elbow procedure and is hopefully on track to hit on opening day 2024 and pitch in 2025.
https://www.mlb.com/news/shohei-ohtani-surgery-update

[bk400]

I wonder if his long term plan is to come back as an old school, Mariano Rivera type closer... Can you imagine seeing him sprinting out from the bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of the World Series -- wearing a Dodgers uniform?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by bk400

I wonder if his long term plan is to come back as an old school, Mariano Rivera type closer... Can you imagine seeing him sprinting out from the bullpen in the bottom of the 9th of Game 7 of the World Series -- wearing a Dodgers uniform?

Won't he be hitting though?

[Seven]

Originally Posted by BobbyStrawberry

Won't he be hitting though?

I'm assuming he meant his return as a pitcher, which won't be until 2025.

I will say, if he returns as a pitcher, it really should be as a high leverage reliever/closer. His body cannot handle the stress of both hitting and starting pitching.

[packs]

How would that even be possible? You can't leave the field of play to warm up in the bullpen to close. And if you're a DH, I don't think you can leave the dug out to head to the bullpen either.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

How would that even be possible? You can't leave the field of play to warm up in the bullpen to close. And if you're a DH, I don't think you can leave the dug out to head to the bullpen either.

One rule was changed for him already...

[mrreality68]

He had the surgery and it went well.
He states now that as we all guessed is that he will Hit/DH next year and be pitching and hitting in 2025.

Now we wait for the off season and see what offers come in for him and where he lands

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

How would that even be possible? You can't leave the field of play to warm up in the bullpen to close. And if you're a DH, I don't think you can leave the dug out to head to the bullpen either.

Are you sure there's a rule about warming up in the bullpen if you're the DH. I'm not sure why there would be. The bigger problem would be if his spot in the order came up to bat while he was trying to warm up.

[packs]

I’ve never seen a starting pitcher leave the dug out to start warming up between long innings. I don’t think you can do that.

[jayshum]

Originally Posted by packs

I’ve never seen a starting pitcher leave the dug out to start warming up between long innings. I don’t think you can do that.

That's different since you're talking about someone who's already in the game as a pitcher. If Ohtani was just DHing in a game, I would think he could go warm up. If not, there may need to be another rule change made to allow something like that to happen.

[packs]

Wouldn't a DH be already in the game too, though? I have no idea what the written rule is but I've never seen anyone who was announced in the starting line up enter the bullpen once the game began.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

Wouldn't a DH be already in the game too, though? I have no idea what the written rule is but I've never seen anyone who was announced in the starting line up enter the bullpen once the game began.

It's different for the pitcher. The notion is he shouldn't be allowed to warm up during delays, I presume. Same rationale would not apply to anyone other than a pitcher already in the game.

[jayshum]

Not sure how much warming up a position player does before going in to pitch in a blowout, but I don't think they usually go to the bullpen. Most stadiums have indoor batting cages that players can go to before pinch hitting so someone could probably throw in there to warm up.

I'm sure a rule about it could be written if there isn't already one that would allow Ohtani to go warm up in the bullpen even if he was already the DH. I still think the bigger problem is getting him time to warm up without his spot in the order coming up to bat.

[packs]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

It's different for the pitcher. The notion is he shouldn't be allowed to warm up during delays, I presume. Same rationale would not apply to anyone other than a pitcher already in the game.

How then would the DH position be represented in the line up or on the field? A DH can't take the field without losing the place in the batting order. So, if Ohtani is the DH and takes the field as the pitcher, who hits for the DH?

Under the normal rule, if a DH replaces the 2nd baseman, for example, the pitcher has to hit in the DH's place. How does that work if the DH becomes the pitcher?

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by packs

How then would the DH position be represented in the line up or on the field? A DH can't take the field without losing the place in the batting order. So, if Ohtani is the DH and takes the field as the pitcher, who hits for the DH?

Under the normal rule, if a DH replaces the 2nd baseman, for example, the pitcher has to hit in the DH's place. How does that work if the DH becomes the pitcher?

They will continue to change the rules for Ohtani if they need to.

[mrreality68]

Ohtani just won his 2nd MVP award and 2nd time it was unanimous.

My understanding only player to win it both times unanimous

He will be getting his money and will be interesting to see where he picks

[bk400]

Guy shows up for his MLB acceptance video in what appears to be an apartment in Japan (I'm inferring from the low angle of the sunlight coming in through the window that it is morning where he is). And he's cradling a puppy. In a sweater that looks suspiciously like the one I have from Uniqlo. It's awesome. This guy is different in a strangely endearing way. Hope he goes far and plays for anyone other than the Angels, Mets or Yankees.

[Peter_Spaeth]

SHOHEI OHTANI'S 2024 TEAM ODDS*

Los Angeles Dodgers: +110 (bet $10 to win $21 total)
Chicago Cubs: +350 (bet $10 to win $45 total)
San Francisco Giants: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
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Texas Rangers: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
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Seattle Mariners: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
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Toronto Blue Jays: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
San Diego Padres: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Any other team: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)