High end vintage card prices in 2023 - Holiday Party Debate

[parkplace33]

I had an office holiday party last night and met a fellow employee who collects vintage cards

In 2023, he will be looking for a near mintish yellow Goudey Ruth. We were talking the price increase over the last two years:

Early 2020 Vcp on yellow Goudey Ruth psa 7 - $38k
Current Vcp on the same card - $132k

His debate is that this card in grade will go closer to the 38k number. My argument is no, the boat has left the pier, this card will remain a 100k card for the foreseeable future. I believe the same for other high end vintage cards.

It was a passionate discussion what do you think?

[ullmandds]

i believe this card will go closer to the higher price.

[Rhotchkiss]

If your friend is waiting for that card to get to $38k, his butt ain’t ever owning one in a 7 (unless horribly OC or overgraded)

[raulus]

Just keep yelling "CARDBOARD ONLY GOES UP!!!"

Until your buddy relents and agrees with you.

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

If your friend is waiting for that card to get to $38k, his butt ain’t ever owning one in a 7 (unless horribly OC or overgraded)

No, not that much. But a pullback to under 100k.

[hcv123]

With 21 graded 7's and only 15 higher, part of the argument becomes a "supply shortage". I suspect there are MANY people out there that would jump at that card at significantly higher than $38K (myself included). With the significantly small supply and high demand for that card, I think the $130K level is sustainable, market softness notwithstanding. IF there is any softness, as others have commented, I don't see it getting close to $38K again.

[Johnny630]

I could see under $100k short term, not close to 38k. Long term....won’t lose if bought at 75-100 Range.

[Rhotchkiss]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

No, not that much. But a pullback to under 100k.

Gotcha. It may go under $100k at some point. I would take the over, but that’s a much tighter debate than $38k

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Johnny630

I could see under $100k short term, not close to 38k. Long term....won’t lose if bought at 75-100 Range.

I don't know what this means. Are you saying if the market drops 40% then you should buy the card because it won't go any lower?

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[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by Gorditadogg

I don't know what this means. Are you saying if the market drops 40% then you should buy the card because it won't go any lower?

Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

Yes on this specific card I feel if you can get a nicely centered low number 33, Goudey Ruth, in a 7 under $100k you're gonna do well in the long run.

[cardsagain74]

It's been almost two years since the card mania peaked, and vintage baseball has held up well. A very good sign that the current prices could be a baseline going forward.

But the unique thing about this spike is since it followed the beginning and end of the covid panic, it only took a year for it to happen and top. Often these bubbles (dot com, tulip bulb, junk wax, etc) build for a few years first.

So it'll be interesting to see what happens with this one. Especially since we're about to hit three years since this boom started

[Snowman]

No chance this card falls back down to 38k. Not even if WW3 breaks out.

[raulus]

Watched this movie again recently, and this thread reminded me of this quote.

Not that I’m predicting zombies, but the future is never as easily predictable as we might guess today.

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by parkplace33

Ithe boat has left the pier, this card will remain a 100k card for the foreseeable future. I believe the same for other high end vintage cards.

Nice to have a fellow collector at work. I'm afraid you are right on the price of cards.

[jp1216]

How does one meet a fellow card collector at a company Christmas party? Someone must have been wearing one of Leon's classic Net54 pins!

[steve B]

Other than new stuff I don't recall ever seeing an expensive card lose that much. Ups and downs yes, but dropping about 70%?
Maybe the OJ rookie? But that's nowhere near the same league as a Goudey Ruth.


What I have seen with all expensive collectibles is that when things get bad, or the hobby gets less popular and prices drop the people who could afford to spend big (both 38K and 132K are unaffordale to me) can also afford to hold onto the stuff and wait. In some cases, that stuff actually does better during hard times.

[parkplace33]

Appreciate all the feedback.

I still blown away by high end prices over the last 3 years. Interesting to see what happens.

[todeen]

I can't see high end vintage cards falling 70%. With the creation of property holding companies that sell shares of portfolios (I can't think of the company name right now), I would imagine that these companies would invest in the dip, and that would prop up the price from falling back to $38k. Like another poster said, at some point it becomes a supply vs demand issue, and there are fewer high graded cards 7+ then there would be buyers. And the farther the price falls, the more buyers who would come to play.

[Leon]

I also don't see great vintage stuff going down in value.

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