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Vintage / Modern
I got an interesting mass email from a major auction house yesterday discussing the recent poor performance of modern cards and the steady reliability and value retention of vintage cards. I thought it was strange for an auction house to all but write off a segment of the hobby, but they did raise some quality points. Do pre-war and vintage collectors think that those who have been spending big bucks on modern pieces will throw in the towel and turn to vintage? If this becomes a trend will we see even more competition for the stuff that we like? I know that some people enjoy vintage and modern, but we may soon see some trying to cut modern losses and begin to target vintage which could drive the good stuff up even higher. 🤔
Ethan |
#2
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I would doubt it.
The modern market is always first to be affected by market changes as it is filled with newbie investors that are quick to bail. I would say most of the modern drop is due to post-pandemic expected declines as the get rich quick flipping crowd slowly fades. I don't care what anyone says, current prices on everything are likely to slow or drop to pre 20' prices throughout next year. The pricing on modern was a joke.
__________________
- Justin D. Player collecting - Lance Parrish, Jim Davenport, John Norlander. Successful B/S/T with - Highstep74, Northviewcats, pencil1974, T2069bk, tjenkins, wilkiebaby11, baez578, Bocabirdman, maddux31, Leon, Just-Collect, bigfish, quinnsryche...and a whole bunch more, I stopped keeping track, lol. |
#3
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Not sure I've ever understood the modern collector, particularly if they're paying astronomical sums for something that doesn't seem all that valuable, like paying 6 figures for pieces from no-name prospects who haven't ever hit above .200 in the minors.
I would question whether modern collectors are really all that interested in vintage. Seems like it's a completely different market, and lacks the sort of action and pizzazz that they want out of their collecting experience.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#4
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192/240 1933 Goudeys (Ruth #144, #149, Gehrig #92) 130/208 T205s 29/108? Diamond Stars |
#5
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I would doubt it. You have to be (no pun intended) invested in pre-war to ever collect it. So much time needs to be invested in learning sets, variations, player histories, and all the nitty gritty in between. I don’t think modern collectors are interested in anything but name and dollar amount. They wouldn’t have the discipline to delve into why something like a T207 of Mike Donlin, someone hardly anyone has ever heard of, is an expensive card. And I doubt they’d be interested in buying one.
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#6
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#7
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True for mainstream I think. It doesn’t take a lot of knowledge to spot a good buy like a Cobb T206. But unless you’re one of us it will be very difficult to buy low and sell high which is the motivation for investments. There are many cards of guys like Ten Million that a casual observer will probably overlook if they saw it somewhere.
Then again I could be wrong too. Modern is all about the variations but they’re usually numbered and that makes it easier to know what’s rare. Last edited by packs; 11-10-2022 at 03:40 PM. |
#8
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I think modern collectors who become disenchanted with their cards will just abandon card collecting.I doubt that many/any will transition to vintage.
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#9
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Most were never "collecting", just buying and selling.
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#10
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I started out as a "modern" collector in 1965. When my son started collecting in 1995 he collected "modern" cards and I started collecting again with him. Throughout the late 90's and early 2000's I was collecting the shiny stuff, before I decided to go back and work on filling out some of my old sets from the 60's. I think a lot of vintage collectors - maybe most of them - started out as "modern" collectors. And because of that I don't think it is a good sign at all that modern cards are down, because that means we are losing new collectors. |
#11
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Its from Lelands. It is really an add for consignments. Interesting method and I am not sure what it says about the AH - are THEY abandoning seeking modern consignments and/or shifting their business? Anyway, here is the body of the email:
Volatility in Modern Cards Market Modern cards have had an impressive run over the last few years. Today, there is increased concern about volatility and devaluation in this sector of the market. Risk assets - like growth stocks, meme stocks, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies - are experiencing similar fluctuations and loss of value in the current environment. Since the start of this amazing run up in value of modern cards, we have hypothesized that investments in this category will be subject to the same investment risk as the other assets noted above, and we are seeing the beginning of that playing out right now. We still believe that modern cards are an excellent long-term investment, but we think it may be awhile before "flipping" cards will be a good financial strategy again. Memorabilia and Vintage Holding Firm As you probably know, Lelands has been a major participant in modern card auctions, with many lots fetching world record prices. But throughout this run up in modern cards, we have not taken our eye off our favorite two categories - sports memorabilia and vintage cards. These sectors of the market are holding their own in this environment. We believe that this decoupling of value from modern cards is due to the type of buyer in these markets. Sports memorabilia and vintage card buyers tend to be collectors who "love the stuff" rather than see their purchases as a "flipping" opportunity. Our data from decades of auctions reveal that these two collector-focused areas of the hobby are also excellent long-term investments, characterized by steady returns with much less volatility. Our experts believe that the double bottom line of 1) the enjoyment that comes from collecting, and 2) the steady increases in memorabilia and vintage value, are a combination that should be highly attractive to the sports collector. The Leaders in Memorabilia and Vintage While auction houses may come and go, or expand and contract, Lelands has been a constant in the hobby. Our business is built upon the solid foundation of a passion for owning history in the sports we follow. We collect because we respect the stuff, we buy and sell because we are fascinated by the historical impact of the pieces, and we have become the hobby's foremost experts because we are immersed in the joy of collecting, not the transactional nature of the sale. We invite you to call upon us to evaluate your sports memorabilia and cards. Similarly, our next Classic Auction is coming very soon, with plenty of memorabilia, vintage, and modern cards for you to bid on! Our relationships with our clients is the most rewarding part of our job, and if you choose to work with us, we trust you will see that we value personal relationships, will provide you with expert insights, and share our deep understanding of what is happening in the hobby marketplace. Sincerely, The Originals Image removed - click Show Images to View Image removed - click Show Images to View Generous Cash Advances and Competitive Rates Available! Consignments & Purchases Generous Cash Advances Highly Competitive Rates National Media Coverage Powerful Online Marketing Hobby-Best Ads & Catalog |
#12
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Modern
I’ll try to find the email…I think it was from Leland’s…someone else here must have it as well.
I collected modern in the late 80s and evolved to vintage and then to pre-war which took a pile of time to become knowledgeable of…I would expect that some of the modern folks will soon take the same path. I remember thinking that the only cards out there were listed in the Beckett price guide. |
#13
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701. Contemporary Insanity
The disbelief over seeing the stunning king’s ransoms being paid for some modern day cards.
__________________
All the cool kids love my YouTube Channel:
Elm's Adventures in Cardboard Land https://www.youtube.com/@TheJollyElm Looking to trade? Here's my bucket: https://www.flickr.com/photos/152396...57685904801706 “I was such a dangerous hitter I even got intentional walks during batting practice.” Casey Stengel Spelling "Yastrzemski" correctly without needing to look it up since the 1980s. Overpaying yesterday is simply underpaying tomorrow. |
#14
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Are they Concerned ? I would say yes.
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#15
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Are they Concerned? I would say yes. Big Money Investors may want safety to say 4%-%5 percent. They can now unlike in the past 15 years get this in US Treasuries or Bonds. The card market let's face it, it's inflated. I'm just saying other avenues look more attractive to me than investing in Cards, Modern or Vintage.
Last edited by Johnny630; 11-10-2022 at 04:41 PM. |
#16
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I do it for the pleasure and the long term investment of it.
It is just a more enjoyable part of my overall portfolio ring diversified. Some people invest in stocks, mutual funds, 401k, perhaps real estate, cards whatever, I have a percentage of my budget and portfolio dedicated to cards.
__________________
Thanks all Jeff Kuhr https://www.flickr.com/photos/144250058@N05/ Looking for 1920 Heading Home Ruth Cards 1917-20 Felix Mendelssohn Babe Ruth 1921 Frederick Foto Ruth Joe Jackson Cards 1916 Advertising Backs 1910 Old Mills Joe Jackson 1914 Boston Garter Joe Jackson 1915 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson 1911 Pinkerton Joe Jackson Shoeless Joe Jackson Autograph |
#17
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Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk |
#18
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Collectors are definitely migrating over to vintage from modern. Almost all of us started in modern at one point in time or another. For me, it started as a kid when I would ride my bike to the local card shop to buy 80s junk wax packs. I would always gawk at the Mantle, Mays, and Hank Aaron cards behind the glass, vowing to one day own some of them. I saved up my money from mowing lawns and picked up a 1960 Topps All-Star Hank Aaron and a 1962 Topps Mickey Mantle as my foray into vintage.
Nowadays, kids like the shiny stuff just like many of us liked opening packs as kids too. But they're all tuning in to social media and listening to influencers these days, and all of those channels are singing the praises of the vintage market. As they watch their NFT digital "cards" and fake jersey patch sticker autos of Gavin Lux (numbered to /99 !!!) plummet in value, they hear about the Wagner, Mantles, Ruths, Cobbs, and Jackies all setting new records on a monthly basis. It piques their interest. I've seen quite a few modern collectors migrating over into vintage, dipping their toes. They're coming. Certainly not all of them, but even if it's just 1 or 2% of them, that's enough to continue to cause upward pressure on pricing. I don't see high-end vintage prices dropping any time soon.
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If it's not perfectly centered, I probably don't want it. |
#19
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I think almost every collector starts as a modern collector, looking for cards of their favorite players. Kids collecting modern today are no different than I was collecting "modern" cards in the mid 90s, or others on the board collecting modern cards in the 1970s, 1950... Almost nobody here started out collecting t206s, it was a migration as we discovered the depths of the hobby, and figured out what really appealed to each of us.
The natural progression for nearly everyone in the hobby is to start modern and shift to vintage; it has been happening for generations, and will continue for generations more. |
#20
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I actually don't think today's modern collecting was something anyone experienced before this generation. You might have collected contemporary cards, but you weren't chasing Bowman first autos, refractors, superfractors, products with costs in the 4 figures, or lottery tickets. It's a totally different experience now. |
#21
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#22
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I don't know about that. Today, you've got to pay $300 for a box of 2022 Topps Chrome. I remember buying any box I wanted of any product I wanted for about $80 to $100. And that was right up until the 2010s really.
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#23
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Obviously the 90s weren't as extreme as today. But it does seem like we were starting to move in this direction. Prices for packs were up, rare chase cards were up, values on those rare chase cards were high, and there was a lot of mania around the whole circus.
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#24
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Yes, but maybe people aren't aware of just how extreme the hobby is now. You can buy a box like Flawless for 10 grand and have the opportunity to pull a Lebron Logoman card that will sell for 2 million dollars.
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#25
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I blame inflation. Even in its transitory state!
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#26
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Another thing I think about in terms of modern collecting today is the thrill of opening the packs. Like I said, there is a lottery or dream home opportunity attached to almost every product that gets released now.
You just aren't going to find that kind of excitement in pre-war. Potentially if you're one of the lucky ones who stumbles upon something at a flea market. But for most of us the thrill is buying cards we love for as low a price as we can find, but often accepting that we'll really pay whatever we have to. There isn't the same kind of magic in pre-war vis a vis the unknown. When I was growing up and opening up packs I wasn't opening them in search of a lottery ticket. I just liked baseball and I liked the Yankees and I wanted Yankees cards. That led me down the path of vintage. I wanted cards of Yankees players my dad talked about. I wanted cards of Babe Ruth. I wanted cards of Lou Gehrig. But I never wanted them because they were valuable. And I think that is a major shift in today's modern collectors. There are probably still collectors who just like collecting sets. But I think there are far more modern collectors in the hobby that just want to chase. Last edited by packs; 11-11-2022 at 10:36 AM. |
#27
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Much of today’s Modern Market is not much collecting, it’s more gambling looking to pull that quick hit. Hurry grade and flip. That’s what it is. Mention Set Building of Modern Cards to anyone under 30...they will look at you like you have two heads. Most of the focus in modern is scoring.
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#28
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There's less difference than people think. Modern and vintage revolve around money for the vocal part, and then there's a bunch of people quietly just doing their thing and having some fun. Grade and flip describes vintage as much as it does modern. |
#29
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Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#30
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Well, we also have... uhm.... What's your favorite T206 color?
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#31
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Modern is a bunch of jagoffs who are just in it to flip it and while we've done just great playing along, we were just fooling. Really, we love memorabilia and vintage cards, really, we do. So, now that it is shitting the bed bigtime, we will be dropping modern like a used sorority girl and going back to vintage cards and memorabilia, where we are still relevant. Really, we are, we're not kidding. We are really good at this stuff. We know all sorts of investy words like risk and strategy and volatile and returns and sectors and we can use them in sentences. Just like extant and verso, which we promise to use in every listing for your cards and memorabilia. Please be our friends again....
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#32
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Adam, that was one of the finest posts extant. Excellent summation.
Lelands has really taken a dive in the last couple of years. I suppose it's good that they are re-focusing on vintage cards and memorabilia. Hopefully they can get back to the status they enjoyed when Josh (RIP) was still around. Last edited by perezfan; 11-12-2022 at 02:06 PM. |
#33
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__________________
James Ingram Successful net54 purchases from/trades with: Tere1071, Bocabirdman, 8thEastVB, GoldenAge50s, IronHorse2130, Kris19, G1911, dacubfan, sflayank, Smanzari, bocca001, eliminator, ejstel, lampertb, rjackson44, Jason19th, Cmvorce, CobbSpikedMe, Harliduck, donmuth, HercDriver, Huck, theshleps Completed 1962 Topps Completed 1969 Topps deckle edge Completed 1953 Bowman color & b/w *** Raw cards only, daddyo! *** |
#34
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“That’s like walking into a whorehouse and asking, ‘aren’t there any nice girls in here?’!”
__________________
Trying to wrap up my master mays set, with just a few left: 1968 American Oil left side 1971 Bazooka numbered complete panel |
#35
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But I will say, from being on Twitter, I find a lot of modern collectors in their 30s who aren't gambling. They probably have similar backstories like me. And they all say the same thing, "I should get into vintage." I'm not sure it's a tidal wave, but some will jump over. For me, I have always loved history. Ken Burns documentary came out when I was 9 yo. I loved the b&w photos and stories. And my grandma told me how I was distantly related to Tris Speaker thru my grandpa. To be a vintage collector, I think you gotta have a care for history. Otherwise, these modern investors will just be vintage investors collecting "blue chip" cards. Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk
__________________
Barry Larkin, Joey Votto, Tris Speaker, 1930-45 Cincinnati Reds, T206 Cincinnati Successful deals with: Banksfan14, Brianp-beme, Bumpus Jones, Dacubfan (x5), Dstrawberryfan39, Ed_Hutchinson, Fballguy, fusorcruiser (x2), GoCalBears, Gorditadog, Luke, MikeKam, Moosedog, Nineunder71, Powdered H20, PSU, Ronniehatesjazz, Roarfrom34, Sebie43, Seven, and Wondo |
#36
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I’m almost 30 and grew up collecting cards from 1998-2007ish.
When I left for the army in 2011 all my cards were sold. I was brought back in during 2019/2020 and an incredible amount had changed in the modern landscape. I bought up a lot of Soto and other stars. I have also been buying an incredible amount of vintage and have found myself dipping into the pre-war cards. I think I have found my niche here and laugh at what I was doing in 2019/2020. I find myself more of a collector of vintage/pre-war and an opportunist with modern to help fuel my collecting. Nothing wrong with that. |
#37
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+1
Ben "I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards." |
#38
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Why talk the talk, when you can scan the scan.
Brian (orange you red with envy? And it's best you don't get me started with green T206 cards) |
#39
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Ben "I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards." |
#40
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I am envious, for unlike myself, it appears that your T206’s are complete and not missing any pieces!
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#41
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Why ATC, why did you do this????
__________________
Read my blog; it will make all your dreams come true. https://adamstevenwarshaw.substack.com/ Or not... |
#42
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Brian |
#43
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You would think, if any of them were going to be red, it would be "the Crab" Evers!
This is why I'm not a comedian. |
#44
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Now these look like my T206's, maimed, dismembered, and still fun.
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#45
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Focus
Not sure how this became a “show your beat up T206” thread, but so be it.
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#46
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Brian (these die cut E121 American Caramels pasted on thick cardboard are not for sale, so back off you modern day drifters) Last edited by brianp-beme; 11-15-2022 at 12:44 AM. |
#47
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I wanted to do that with my Southworth but I couldn't cut through the dern plastic. Dang-it anyhow! Guess I'll just have to lure in the vintage immigrants as is. (lol, for those who don't git it) Ben "I love baseball history backstory; especially when it involves cards." |
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