Which Rookie Cards Would You Short-Sell?

[D. Bergin]

OK, this is obviously a hypothetical. Both vintage and modern are going nuts lately, as we all know. As per usual, the vintage will probably prove to be the most stable, while the modern will be the most volatile. Biggest short term gains, but also biggest losses.

Promising "Rookies" have been hyped in this hobby since the very early 80's and the SCD and Card Show speculators. Dating back to Joe Charboneau, Fernando Valenzuela, Bob Horner, Pedro Guerrero and scores of others. Both successful and not so much.

We seem to be on a much different level now.

With the Gamestop saga fresh in our minds, along with the concept of "Short Selling". What cards are going nuts right now, that you would "short-sell", if that concept existed for cards? Could be modern or vintage, but I imagine modern would dominate this conversation. Pick any sport or athlete or even particular card you like.

Hopefully I don't put any bad ideas into the wrong rich hedge fund traders head.

As an example, not really relevant now, but back a couple years ago, I would have shorted the hell out of Aaron Judge. I'm a Yankee fan, and I really like Judge, but he is big.........and brittle..........and not very young. Hard for me to see any long term upside, in the type of card market I am familiar with.

Go!

[cesarcap]

This is slightly off topic...but I've been selling off my highly graded PSAs and immediately getting lower graded or raw cards. I know my aging eyes are getting worse but I sold a Jordan 8 (2nd year/ Fleer 88) and immediately got for the same price a 7, a 6 and a raw sticker. OK, the 7 is more oc than the 8 but I can hardly see the difference. Now, I have another Jordan to complete my 7th Fleer 87 set

But yeah, name any major sport and the HoF vintage guys > highly touted RC's or stars who have upside still as their careers are still in the 1-3rd inning, 1st qtr or period, but a lot of downside from a card pricing standpoint.

I'd take a 50's Mays card over a Judge auto refactor die-cut prism 1/200 (for this year) any day.

[Peter_Spaeth]

I could see the hero of Blowout, Acuna, as the next Yasiel Puig.

[Pjere]

Vlad


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Pjere

Vlad


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Not surprising, but interesting choice. He's still very young and it will be interesting to see how he evolves as he gets older.

He hasn't blown away with his stats yet, but he makes contact and doesn't strike out a ton. Good sign if he starts to become more selective with his pitches.

Jury is still out on his defense, and he's much stockier then his dad. I'd like to see him slim down a bit, so he stays mobile as he gets older.

Top end, he could profile offensively as an Albert Belle type. He could also be another Pablo Sandoval. Nice player for a few years, but not somebody you want to sink a lot of dollars into as a collector/investor.

[packs]

Jo Adell. Don't think he has it.

[joshuanip]

Unpopular, but Mike Trout. He’s starting to wear down and even if healthy, he’s not on pace to break records / expectations we have for him unless he takes on a Barry Bonds rebirth...

[packs]

I guess your stance on Trout depends on what you mean by expectations. I think he'll be a 600 homer / 3,000 hit guy. There's only four others. One is a definite cheat in A-rod and then there's Pujols.

Pretty exclusive club with Hank and Willie.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by packs

I guess your stance on Trout depends on what you mean by expectations. I think he'll be a 600 homer / 3,000 hit guy. There's only four others. One is a definite cheat in A-rod and then there's Pujols.

Pretty exclusive club with Hank and Willie.

I'm not sure Trout will get to 3000 hits, or even close to it. Don't think it's important either. Other players he profiles similar to didn't get there either. Williams, Mantle, Ruth, Gehrig, Bonds. He's an on base and slugging machine....but not a hit machine.

I understand why he would be included in this thread, simply because he is modern, and his stuff is sooooo high already. You could argue, the only direction is down,.....even though he's forever going to have iconic status at this point.

I think there's a good chance he starts to get ravaged by injuries (he hasn't played more then 140 games since 2016), similar to Griffey Jr.. He starts a slow but steady slide, while still putting up respectable numbers, collectors start to lose interest in him, and his cards start to wane a bit.

Like Griffey, I also expect for him to gain in his reputation after he retires and his stuff will start to take off again, while the next Mike Trout is tearing up the league sometime in the not so distant future.

Not sure a "short-sell" is appropriate however, unless the modern era hobby starts to collapse under economic pressure from the outside world, and the present prices just become considered unjustifiable, completely separate from his on-field performance.