Market flattening definitely

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

PSA 7 Ruth sold for $552,000 and 1907 Seamless Steel Tubes Ty Cobb with Cobb writing content for $84,000 as the last Heritage auction. Seamless Cobb in Good 2 went for $24,000 in the last REA auction. Autographed 1907 Dietsche Fielding Pose Cobb--$26,000. Non-autographed Fielding Pose just under $11,000 at auction in 2015 in PSA 5, up from the $4,000 I paid for one in the very same grade in 2011. I'd say rare and significant items (condition rarity for the Ruth) are doing quite well.

Regards,

Larry

I think Its easy to find arguments to make your point. Just last month Lou sold to Jim a Fielding Dietsche Cobb here in the BST for 1975.00 (unless Jim got him to even take less). The 25 Gehrig exhibit you mentioned, I agree could be had for 6500.00 3 years ago in G-VG condition. But using that same condition we look at the most recent sale of it in the Goodwin auction which went for a little over 18k and no where near the 40k.

Autographed cards are in an entirely differently collector arena. I would not even compare the same issue to each other. The Seamless Tubes Cobb is a great postcard. Like Barry said, if/when another one comes up, I'm pretty sure the winner of the last two (Heritage/REA) won't be going strong after a new example.

Most anything rare and good will always do well in a bear or bull market. Buy the nicest condition you can afford and buy stuff that has a known track record along with the right name (Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, Matty, Wajo, Wagner, etc..).

I agree that postcards and CJs are hot along with other issues like SL Cabinets and auto cards. But those don't represent the entire market. Do I agree the market is flattening? No way! If anything, it's exciting seeing the realized prices on many issues and hearing about private sales that take place.

[tiger8mush]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

I only got back in the market this past year after years of being inactive, and my jaw drops pretty regularly.

Welcome back, Barry!

[Gradedcardman]

The point I see is that most of us are collectors who hope to recoup some of money in the future. At this point, if I need it and I spend twice or three times what the card is worth based on the next sale then I don't care. If I was an investor who bought heavy a couple of years ago and was still holding inventory then yes I would take a deeper look.

[bbcard1]

I think the key is to play consistently. Things go up and down and that's just how it is, but if you're in the market regularly, you'll do ok. I very seldom "make" any money from my cards...I figure the pleasure I got from owning them was the dividend.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Welcome back, Barry!

Thanks Rob. Trying to have a little fun with it without breaking the bank.

[Leon]

I wouldn't base the market on Green W600s. Take the 2 top bidders out on those and you have 10-15k cards, imo.....

Originally Posted by RedsFan1941

Since this has become a game of picking and choosing random cards to make an absurd point, I will play.

W600 green mount Lajoie is a PSA 5 holder with an MK sold in REA last spring for 45000. A different example in an SGC 4.5 holder sold last Thursday for 60000 in Heritage.

Case closed. The baseball card market is up across the board 33 percent from a year ago.

[KMayUSA6060]

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by KMayUSA6060

I find this thread very interesting.

You're saying the market is flattening definitely, yet list individual cards to prove your point.

If the stock market is down, does that mean each individual stock is down?
Conversely, if the stock market is up, is each individual stock up?

The answer to both questions is no.


Saying the card market is down, then using a few individual cards that are down, isn't an accurate assessment of the entire market. I'm not sure there's an accurate way to assess the entire market yet, at least across multiple landscapes. If you break it down into value categories ($50k-100k cards, $100k-200k, etc.), you can get somewhat of a more accurate assessment. But even then, it doesn't factor in what others have previously mentioned: if a significant bidder wins the card, they and their money are taken out of the market.

Only my opinion. No, I have not done a study of every card out there. The Dow Jones average is a sample of 30 (?) stocks that is used as a proxy of the stock market as a whole. People say the market is going down and obviously many stocks aren't. Like I said, if I looked at the top 20 cards just sold at Heritage (not unique one of a kind items like the great Cobb autographed card), I'd wager most of them, a large percentage, are down off their VCP recent average. The top 5 cards all are. Sure some aren't but I suspect most are. They are not crashing to the ground but I believe most have fallen. But it's a huge market and like you said operates on a lot of different levels.

[glynparson]

The market seems typical some up some down.

[Touch'EmAll]

You have to take into account not just the numerical grade, but characteristics within the grade, i.e. centering, tilt cuts, print dots, color, focus, gloss, other tricky tack flaws. Absolute NO WAY all cards of the same grade are created equal. There can be big price differences within the same grade due to eye appeal characteristics.

[ullmandds]

can this thread be moved to the horseshit section please?

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

can this thread be moved to the horseshit section please?

there was a thread on this months ago that was callled something like 'card market is faaalllling' something like that...

always a thread like that with lots of people giving their opinions....will be another one in 6 months..

that older thread i believe i gave my theory of the waterfront properties or shortly thereafter..i dont judge the market on the Wagner or high grade Cobbs/ruths etc...those are in a subset of their own... Just like when the housing market crashed, the houses on the water in certain sections did not feel the same impact. Need to do apples to apples etc..

[barrysloate]

Of course some cards are up and some are down.

But overall the market is very healthy. No matter what data you use, it would be hard to say the market is soft right now. I know I haven't been able to find any bargains.

[Beastmode]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

can this thread be moved to the horseshit section please?

I agree with Steve, but I use more feel than data. It just feels like it's correcting to me based on my searches. Could be wrong, but this comment above if hilarious.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Beastmode

I agree with Steve, but I use more feel than data. It just feels like it's correcting to me based on my searches. Could be wrong, but this comment above if hilarious.

i agree in that the cards that "should" be correcting are...and thats only because they were artificially inflated and are common in most cases.

but if I look at my current collection...all I see is dow 50K!!!!!!

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Yes, putting aside the fact that Heritage sold the exact same Ruth card last Fall for $717,000 . . .nah, forget it. . . .everything is going up . . . I agree. Purple Kool Aid line to the right . . . .

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

[ullmandds]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by calvindog

Steve, no one is claiming that the market is going up in order to convince themselves their collections are worth more than they are. They're saying so based on how much more they have to pay for the same cards they were buying a year ago. Yes, this is an anecdotal endeavor. But the anecdotes that are coming out suggest that your claim that the market is 'definitely' flattening out is just wrong. Cracker Jacks are up by a lot from last year. T206s are up by a lot. Rare postcards are up huge. This is covers a wide swath of the hobby. Some issues are down, no question, that's always the case. But if you speak to anyone who has a major collection and spends 6-7 figures a year on cards I'm fairly certain that they'll tell you that card prices on average are going up.

+1! Well said Jeff!

[frankbmd]

Putting the word "definitely" in a thread title is sure fire way to stir up controversy.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

this is also totally true...im seeing more of a premium for well centered cards than ever!

Absolutely Peter. Especially holy grail type cards such as the Ruth rookie; 51 Bowman & 52 Topps Mantles; T206 Cobbs, Johnsons, Youngs; Ruth/Gehrig Goudeys; iconic 50's/60,s rookie cards; etc. Extremely well centered cards are realizing up to 50% premiums in some intances, substantiati why VCP pricing points are rendered virtually useless when analyzing a well centered card's market value.

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

The Ruth rookie that sold for $717K was nearly dead centered. The 7 that just sold for $552K was way off-centered with 2 glaring print lines. So much for that analogy. People are leaning more towards buying the "card", not the grade.

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

[Dpeck100]

There might be pockets of weakness but the trading card market as a whole is in an uptrend.

From the CLCT press release on May 3rd.


That increase was driven by a $0.8 million, or 7%, increase in coin
service revenues and a $0.4 million, or 11%, increase in cards and autograph
service revenues.



Robert Deuster, Chief Executive Officer, stated, “We are very pleased with
the performance of our Company this last quarter and the growth in revenue and
profit achieved so far this year. The year-to-date growth in our international
and modern coin businesses are indicative of our focus on organic growth in
segments where brand preference, innovation and presence are important. The
momentum in our sports card business reflects the confidence collectors have
in graded cards and the rate of card submissions remains very high. Our US
businesses during the quarter provided strength to our overall global grading
activity, where Asian demand was lower due to seasonal holidays, resulting in
another record quarterly performance. Our outlook for 2017 remains very
positive.”

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by rats60

The 717k Ruth was badly off centered, about 75/25.

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

[Aaron Seefeldt]

I tried, I really did, to buy a t206 green Cobb in REA but I couldn't pull the trigger on those phat prices. And then they went for even more $ in Heritage. I don't understand it. Will somebody please take a needle and puncture that balloon so I can buy one at a semi-reasonable price, please?

On a different note, hey Barry how are you? I hope you're well.

[BeanTown]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

Not even close. I just measured both based on super-sized scans. $717K Ruth approximately 60/40. $552 Ruth approx. 30/70 (give or take of course). That equates to a 10% difference on each border or an overall 20% disparity to the visual appeal. Bottom line is the difference between a 60/40 card and 30/70 card is immense. Now add in two glaring print lines and that strongly justifies the pricing variance between the two cards.

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

One thing to note are both are currently available for purchase.

Interesting. Thx for posting the 2 scans. The centering disparity between the two cards is quite obvious. 👍

[sterlingfox]

Maybe it's just me, but the one on the right is more off center top to bottom, has a print line of its own (albeit more faint), and is darker and not as focused as the one on the left (this could be from the scan, however). The corners are sharper on the left too.

In my book, they are nearly equal in overall appeal.

[barrysloate]

Originally Posted by Aaron Seefeldt

I tried, I really did, to buy a t206 green Cobb in REA but I couldn't pull the trigger on those phat prices. And then they went for even more $ in Heritage. I don't understand it. Will somebody please take a needle and puncture that balloon so I can buy one at a semi-reasonable price, please?

On a different note, hey Barry how are you? I hope you're well.

Doing fine Aaron. Looks like we both dropped out of the hobby for a while and then came back around the same time. Trust you are well too.

And I agree about those crazy Green Cobbs. I'd like to buy one too but when I see those prices I just can't pull the trigger. I remember selling VG's for around $250-300 a pop. I guess those days are over.

[2dueces]

Originally Posted by tiger8mush

Welcome back, Barry!

I second that!

[rats60]

Originally Posted by Vintageclout

Interesting. Thx for posting the 2 scans. The centering disparity between the two cards is quite obvious. 👍

It is also obvious that they are both badly off centered. I measured them both too and they are both more than 2:1. I don't know how you come up with 60/40. It is 70/30 to 75/25.

[wondo]

I still maintain the market is in a "Catch its Breath Mode". Lots of auctions and lots of quality have been absorbed in the past few months. Again, this is a great time to hunt bargains or pick up auction pieces against reduced competition from empty-pocket buyers. Are there gonna be spikes and en fuego pockets? Sure, but you can find some reasonable deals on main stream and unpopular issues as they take a further back seat.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by wondo

I still maintain the market is in a "Catch its Breath Mode". Lots of auctions and lots of quality have been absorbed in the past few months. Again, this is a great time to hunt bargains or pick up auction pieces against reduced competition from empty-pocket buyers. Are there gonna be spikes and en fuego pockets? Sure, but you can find some reasonable deals on main stream and unpopular issues as they take a further back seat.

+1 as to the opportunities available. Just as in coins, not all areas of the market will be in focus, i.e., "hot," at the same time. When a certain area is quiet, that is the time to buy. Demand inevitably comes around to rare and significant items.

Highest regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by mechanicalman

To be clear, you made the bold assertion that the market is "flattening definitely." You were presented evidence refuting that claim. I didn't see one person boldly claiming the converse, that all prices were rising. So your drink the koolaid comments are misdirected. Why is it so hard to admit that there are winners and losers right now, and a blanket statement, either way, is a weak argument?

Precisely. Just as in the coin market, certain sections of the market will be in focus and therefore "hot," while others are quiet. An interesting analysis of the coin market's history and the ups and downs of various portions of it can be found in several of Q. David Bowers' books, one of the foremost experts in that collectibles field. My own study of the card and car markets is in accord. Things that are available in reasonably significant quantity will be cyclical, especially in ultra high grade. Those which are decidedly outright rare and significant (or "popular," if you wish to use Bowers' preferred term) appreciate in value in a much more linear fashion. The time to buy is when the latter segment is in a quiet phase, but determining what will be deemed rare and significant and significantly more valuable in the future is up to the individual collector. That comes through research into both baseball history and knowledge about what's out there in cards. Some of your choices will be right on, and some will not. Condition, the last factor in the value equation, is the easiest to determine.

May your collecting be joyful in any event,

Larry

[Vintageclout]

Originally Posted by rats60

It is also obvious that they are both badly off centered. I measured them both too and they are both more than 2:1. I don't know how you come up with 60/40. It is 70/30 to 75/25.

Whatever makes you sleep at night....

[mark evans]

I share the philosophy of buying what I like.

Those who buy for investment value, all or in part, are fine too. [Makes for some interesting threads.] But, that would create stress for me and thus not worth it.

[Snapolit1]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

Precisely. Just as in the coin market, certain sections of the market will be in focus and therefore "hot," while others are quiet. An interesting analysis of the coin market's history and the ups and downs of various portions of it can be found in several of Q. David Bowers' books, one of the foremost experts in that collectibles field. My own study of the card and car markets is in accord. Things that are available in reasonably significant quantity will be cyclical, especially in ultra high grade. Those which are decidedly outright rare and significant (or "popular," if you wish to use Bowers' preferred term) appreciate in value in a much more linear fashion. The time to buy is when the latter segment is in a quiet phase, but determining what will be deemed rare and significant and significantly more valuable in the future is up to the individual collector. That comes through research into both baseball history and knowledge about what's out there in cards. Some of your choices will be right on, and some will not. Condition, the last factor in the value equation, is the easiest to determine.

May your collecting be joyful in any event,

Larry

Appreciate the joyful comment very much. I get great joy from collecting and, believe it or not, from posting stuff on this board and sometimes getting my balls busted. It beats talking politics these days. I agree than its always some are up and some are down. I don't dabble in the deepest end of the pool by a long shot, but I do collect some nice 6s and 7s of Ruth and Gehrig and a few others. Goudeys, Caramels, nice Exhibits, rare strip cards. And I watch a lot of the other cards pretty carefully at least 1920-50. To my eye there has been a softening in demand for most of these cards. Not dramatic but noticeable. Looks at the Goudey 7s. Look at the rarer Gehrig cards (which I collect). Look at the CJs. I see at least a breather and more probably a genuine dip. I find the economics of the market to be pretty fascinating stuff, but I know to many of you it is anathema.

[ValKehl]

Originally Posted by sterlingfox

Maybe it's just me, but the one on the right is more off center top to bottom, has a print line of its own (albeit more faint), and is darker and not as focused as the one on the left (this could be from the scan, however). The corners are sharper on the left too.

In my book, they are nearly equal in overall appeal.

You gotta be kidding - right?

[Bradyhill]

Maybe I bought them both...

[Dpeck100]

Originally Posted by Bradyhill

Maybe I bought them both...

This posts reminds me of one of those Thug Life videos. Haha


What a response!


Someone with photoshop needs to post both cards next to each other with the hat, the shades and the joint and these words.

[calvindog]

This thread makes me miss Peter Chao.

[Orioles1954]

Whenever I buy a card: purchase at a record price
Whenever I sell a card: market is flat

[Snapolit1]

I know the feeling. I am equally good at buying stocks at all time highs.

[1952boyntoncollector]

Originally Posted by Bradyhill

Maybe I bought them both...

They would go well with your T206 Cobb/Cobb lucky find cards.

[Mountaineer1999]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I know the feeling. I am equally good at buying stocks at all time highs.

+1

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by Orioles1954

Whenever I buy a card: purchase at a record price
Whenever I sell a card: market is flat

Has to make you wonder!

[Orioles1954]

Originally Posted by Republicaninmass

Has to make you wonder!

Hence why I no long collect cards

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

I know the feeling. I am equally good at buying stocks at all time highs.

It's just human nature to buy into a rising market, rather than one that is quiet for the time being. I think Steve has selected some very good value Gehrigs for the longer term, as depicted in another current thread.

Best regards,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by BeanTown

I think Its easy to find arguments to make your point. Just last month Lou sold to Jim a Fielding Dietsche Cobb here in the BST for 1975.00 (unless Jim got him to even take less).

With all due respect to Lou, that one would have been at its very best a Good 2 (Mk), as it was certainly nowhere near a PSA 5 condition-wise, and was postally used, with a great deal of writing (and not Cobb's) on the back. Hardly a good comparison to the "5" which sold for $10,800+ in 2015, but I would call it a good, astute buy for the long term nonetheless (recently saw that a V351 Williams rookie in 1.5 Fair went for just $500 in a small auction--I would have snapped that one up to go with my Ex+ and considered it a steal for a long term hold had I seen it).

Regards,

Larry

[calvindog]

This is the one which didn't go for $10,875.70.