Relative Rarity of T205 Matty with Diff. Ad Brands

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Posted By: Scott Levy

While the value of this card can easily be disagreed upon, the relative scarcity should be somewhat simple to extrapolate if one key assumption holds true. Based on what I know and have seen, the error occurs only on Cycle backs and is almost certain to occur on ALL cycle backs. So if we can figure out the rarity of Cycle backs for T205 and if the T205 Matty roughly matches this scarcity, we have our answer. The KEY ASSUMPTION is that T205 Matty Cycle reflects overall T205 Cycle rarity (which I estimate at appx. 3%).

So with a tip of the cap to Ted Z ... I propose a survey in which Net 54 members look at their T205 Matty Cards which they currently own and report the ad brand on the back. I'd love to get around 100 responses to have a decent sample size, but I'll work with whatever we've got. I will exclude myself so that we can get a better estimate

I have pre-populated this sheet with current Ebay for sale examples:
Brand Total to Date
American Beauty 0
Blank 0
Cycle 0
Drum 0
Hassan 1
Hindu 0
Honest 2
Piedmont 4
Polar Bear 2
Sweet Cap 6
Sovereign 0

Grand Total 15

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Posted By: barrysloate

The one in my current auction is a Piedmont Factory 42.

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Posted By: Mike Brailey

1 Piedmont
1 Polar Bear

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Posted By: Anonymous

1 sweet cap
1 american beauty

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Posted By: Turner Engle

One Sweet Caporal.

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Posted By: DMcD

(1) Piedmont, Factory No. 25

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Posted By: Matt

Perhaps a statistician can weigh in, but I'd think you'd need a survey of hundreds if not thousands to move the margin of error here to be less then 1-2%.

Since the premise is to validate if the % of Cycle Mattys corresponds to the 3% of all Cycles, you would need a minuscule margin of error to come to a conclusion saying that Mattys are more or less scarce then other Cycle backs.

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Posted By: Mike Ernst

1 Hassan, 1 Piedmont Factory 25 here

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Posted By: Keyway

I have 1 Honest Long Cut.

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Posted By: Scott Levy

Update to survey:

American Beauty 1
Blank 0
Broadleaf 0
Cycle 0
Drum 0
Hassan 2
Hindu 0
Honest 3
Piedmont 8
Polar Bear 3
Sweet Cap 7
Sovereign 0

Grand Total 24


Matt,

You happen to be correct that the sample size should be many hundreds, but I doubt we'll get there and just wanted a quick and dirty 'gut check' to see if my assumption of 3% is WAY off. Obviously, the more data we have, the more accurate the results will be.

Regards,
S

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Posted By: Ray Piskadlo

Mine has a Hassan back.

What rarity/error are we talking about here?

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Posted By: Art M.

I just have one T205 Matty:
1 - Sweet Caporal factory 42

Art

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Posted By: leon

Piedmont fact 25

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Posted By: Jeff Schwarz

Add a Polar Bear to the total.

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Posted By: David R

I have one Piedmont Fac 25

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Posted By: J Levine

Scott,

How about a little help here...As many know the T205 set and specifically the back scarcity has been a project of mine for about 10 years. I have seen nearly 6,000 different T205 cards in my research and have kept data on front/back combos, variations, scarcity of ads, scarcity of cards, and sales figures.

Here is what I know. Scott was not far off on the 3% of backs for Cycle. In late 2006 a large grouping of Cycle backs was found and pushed that number to 3.9% of all ad backs I have tracked. Here is the breakdown that I have either personally seen a clear scan of or personally held. I do not include PSA or SGC pop. reports because I know for a fact that they are wrong on T205s (heck, I have broken out my share of cards over the years).

Here is the data I have for Matty (which is the very first T205 I ever bought!).

Advertiser / Color/ Fact. Code/ # of cards seen/ %Total
Piedmont / Blue/ 25/ 30 / 16.9
Polar Bear /Blue/44/24.9
Sweet Cap. /Red/32/18.1
Sweet Cap. /Black/25/0/0.0
Sweet Cap. /Black/42/0/0.0
Hassan / Green/649/0/0.0
Honest L C / Black/23/13.0
Sovereign /Green/19/10.7
Cycle /Black/11/6.2
Hassan / Green/30/12/6.8
Am. Beauty / Black/0/0.0
Am. Beauty / Green/2/1.1
Piedmont /Blue/42/3/1.7
Broadleaf /Black/1/.01
Broadleaf /Khaki/0/0.0
Hindu /Brown/0/0.0
Drum /Brown/0/0.0

Total Mathewsons seen: 177

This data shows a few things. First Matty with the Cycle shows up about double what Scott expected but he is assumed (I think) that Matty was available with all advertising backs. This is not the case. I have yet to see a Matty with a black Sweet Cap. back from either factory or a Hassan 649. I suspect that Matty was not included in these print runs as they are common and popular one would have turned up in the last few years. I do believe that there will be a black American Beauty and a Khaki Broadleaf at some point. I also believe that there might be a Hindu. There is too small a sampling of Drum to extrapolate. Out of all available Matty's, he is found about 6% of the time with a Cycle back.

Just for comparison, Chance has an almost identical profile to Matty. Missing certain backs and found at just under 7% for Cycle. I think that certain other cards will show a similar profile (I knew Chance was similar to Matty already so it was easy to check).

I hope this helps Scott and all other T205 collectors.

Joshua

PS Yes, I own a Cycle as well.

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Posted By: Mike Taylor

My Matty is a Piedmont Factory #25.

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Posted By: Martin Neal

Red Sweet Cap 42 here.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Josh,





Hi Josh,

I been conducting my own study on T205's, T206's and T207's for quite sometime, as I am an avid "rare back" collector. I have also steered clear of the Pop reports, as they are sometimes misleading. My study includes around 8000 cards that I have seen in person, auctions, or scans from collectors. I am in the process of breaking out all of my Cycle data, but I do have the Mathewson data available: I have pasted Josh's study on the left, so that we may discuss the differences.



Brian's Data

Advertiser / Color/ Fact. Code/ # of cards seen/ %Total

Piedmont/Blue/25/112/ 34.5

Polar Bear / Blue/46/ 14.1

Sweet Cap. / Red/ 73/ 22.5

Sweet Cap. / Black/ 25/ 0/ 0.0

Sweet Cap. / Black/ 42/ 0/ 0.0

Hassan / Green/ 649/ 0/ 0.0

Honest L C / Black/ 26/8.0

Sovereign / Green/ 21/6.48

Cycle / Black/ 14/ 4.3

Hassan / Green/ 30/19/ 5.8

Am. Beauty / Black / 0/ 0.0

Am. Beauty / Green/5/1.54

Piedmont / Blue/ 42/8/2.46

Broadleaf / Black/ 0/ 0

Broadleaf / Khaki/ 0/ 0.0

Hindu / Brown/ 0/ 0.0

Drum / Brown/ 0/ 0.0

Total Mathewsons seen: 324


Josh's Data:

Advertiser / Color/ Fact. Code/ # of cards seen/ %Total

Piedmont / Blue/ 25/ 30 / 16.9

Polar Bear / Blue/ 44/ 24.9

Sweet Cap. / Red/ 32/ 18.1

Sweet Cap. / Black/ 25/ 0/ 0.0

Sweet Cap. / Black/ 42/ 0/ 0.0

Hassan / Green/ 649/ 0/ 0.0

Honest L C / Black/ 23/ 13.0

Sovereign / Green/ 19/ 10.7

Cycle / Black/ 11/ 6.2

Hassan / Green/ 30/ 12/ 6.8

Am. Beauty / Black / 0/ 0.0

Am. Beauty / Green/ 2/ 1.1

Piedmont / Blue/ 42/ 3/ 1.7

Broadleaf / Black/ 1/ .01

Broadleaf / Khaki/ 0/ 0.0

Hindu / Brown/ 0/ 0.0

Drum / Brown/ 0/ 0.0



Total Mathewsons seen: 177



I should be able to post the Cycle data shortly.

Be well Brian



PS Hi Josh, do you own the Broadleaf???

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Posted By: J Levine

Brian,
Wow, I thought I was obsessed! I actually have hard data on 6,123 different T205s...I do have data on 3,000 additional cards but that was before I seriously tracked the cards as individual cards. My database is probably comprised of 95% or higher unique T205 cards. I actually use a grade sheet with notes (grade, apperance, grading company, distinguishing marks, etc.) to make sure I try not to repeat the same card (except in the sales data). I started keeping scans but it was just to memory and time consuming and gave up rather quickly. I am super anal about this set. Not sure how you break your cards down.

I think the data is interesting. I was surprised when I looked and saw less Piedmont for me.

Looking at the two tables I think that with a statistical variation it is not horrible. I do believe that there are more Polar Bears out there than Piedmonts but not by much.

Maybe you and I can compare notes on front back combos. I am missing a few that I believe exist but just have not seen a scan of.

I do not own the Broadleaf Matty. Wish I did. I do own several Broadleaf cards, two Hindu, and three blank back. Still looking for a beat up Drum to add to the collection.

Joshua

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Josh,
I think we all have some level of sickness when it comes to cards....


" I actually use a grade sheet with notes (grade, apperance, grading company, distinguishing marks, etc.) to make sure I try not to repeat the same card (except in the sales data). I started keeping scans but it was just to memory and time consuming and gave up rather quickly. I am super anal about this set. Not sure how you break your cards down."

I'm not quite as sick as you are, but I do keep track of Cert numbers, grading companies and condition. I do have a huge library of scans, and I will probably need to add another hard drive soon.

As far as the Piedmont/Polar Bear data, I have handled 3 significant finds of Piedmonts in the last 2 years that totaled over 2300 cards. So my sample does tilt in that direction.

I'll be back after dinner... talk to you soon Brian

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Josh,
Here is my T205 Cycle data:
1. 248 cards out of 8000 or 3.1%.
2. 14 Mathewson's out of 248 0r 5.64%

I look forward to chatting with you in the future about the internal numbers. Be well Brian

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Posted By: Scott M.

Your numbers make perfect sense to me.

Matty was such a popular player that one would expect there to be a higher percentage of Cycle Mattys than of any particular common player with a Cycle back.

My feeling is that the Cycle Matty is a legitimate variation but no where near as scarce as the Hobby no stats and probably more along the lines of a short print like the Wilhelm.

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Posted By: Brian Weisner

Hi Scott,
Thanks for the vote of confidence, but I'm afraid my data doesn't really show that Matty shows up with a Cycle back more than any other player. In fact it may show that he is an "average Cycle" at best. I think there are several reasons why his numbers are slightly higher than common Cycles, but that's because I've been looking so long. First of all... Most Mathewson's in decent shape are graded, while the commons tend to go unnoticed in lots or sets. Second, I think if we started a thread of known Matty/Cycles on the board, we would get less than 16, but that's just a guess.

Dinner.... Pizza smells good... Be well Brian

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Posted By: Scott Levy

Brian,

As I agree with your assessment. I believe that the Matty Cycle is just about as common/rare as any other Cycle. I would be extremely surprised to see a total surviving pop of these cards over 100 and my best guess is that it's probably around 50 or so - even when accounting for all ungraded/unknown examples. I know other than myself of two people who have Cycle examples but would also be surprised if a large number of board members possessed one.

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Posted By: Scott M.

Hi Brian,

Thanks for correcting me. Thats what I get for glancing too quickly at the numbers that you had posted.

That being said, I would still venture a guess that there are more examples out there of Matty with a Cycle back than just the "average" common player with a Cycle back.

I think with Mattys popularity that it would just make sense that more of his cards were kept and preserved over the years.

Scott L,

Thanks again for sharing this information if no one else has thanked you yet. As a T205 master set collector I hate the fact that I am compelled to obtain another card but I do appreciate knowing that it is out there!