Time to unload those vgex T206

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Posted By: Steve M.

Any clue as to what prompted this?

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=8815324320&rd=1&sspagename=STRK%3AMEBI%3AIT&rd=1

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Posted By: T206Collector

I saw that one too and was completely floored. I am wondering whether it makes sense to sell the whole collection now, keep the money in a fund, and buy it back in a few years when the whole lot is a bit cheaper.

There are those that will tell you that these prices will continue to rise, but that is very very hard for me to believe. Of course, if you had told me that an SGC 50 Old Mill Back of Bescher would go for over $150 -- let alone over $300 -- I would have called you crazy and sold you all of my SGC 50's for $200. Now it looks like I'd get that kind of cash, but it would be so hard to part with my collection.

Anybody got any predictions. I'd like to hear from both the sun is a lot higher than we think people as well as those that think there's still plenty of room for price growth.

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Posted By: Judge Dred (Fred)

I suppose if nothing but multi millionaires, that didn't care how much they spent on cards, were to enter the card buying fray then we might have an answer to why the prices seem to continue escalating. It could also be that people may not understand what is tough to find and what is plentiful.

I kind of believe what you're saying is correct about selling the stuff now and buying it back later at a cheaper price.

Bubble.... just how elastic is this one? When the bubble starts deflating will it be a big POP or a slow leak?

Hyper inflation might make these prices seem really cheap but I think I'd rather see a stable economy than a nightmare...

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Posted By: Bob

That's got to be a fluke, the Bescher portrait was always thought to be much tougher than the hands in air variation....

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Posted By: Rick

I only follow one card in the T-206 set.

Juan Violat....the prices are just getting wilder by the day.

This is not a rare card ..not even close to being hard to find.

It turns up at least a couple times a month on ebay.

Mid grade PSA 3-4-5 graded cards go for 150- 400 dollars.

I bought my PSA 3 for 25 bucks just a couple of years ago.

If i had a bunch of easy to replace commons i would think right now would be the time to sell...then again who knows the prices seems to go up every week.

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Posted By: Lee Behrens

I have been collecting since 1980, I don't know how many times I thought the cards couldn't go any higher, I feel there will always be a strong market for vintage cards because of the game I love so much "BASEBALL" it defies time, the history is second to none in sports.

Yes, individual cards some times sell for ridiculous amoounts, but over all you don't see those ridiculoous prices.

Lee

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Posted By: Rick

Its a catch 22

If you bought your cards a while ago ..you can probably make a nice profit ...but if they keep going up you might not be able to afford to buy them back.

That buyer seems to buying a lot of cards...a big chunck of pre war stuff. 5 figures in just the last 30 days.

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Posted By: Mark Holt

That price is not the norm - VG's are still available around $35. I doubt average prices will fall - every time I read a post about T206 pricing going up I take a glance at the PSA set Registry - there are now 94 active registered sets. The next time this topic is brought up there will be over 100. There are another 49 on SGC's Registry. I'm guessing there are several 100 raw set collectors. eBay provides anyone with internet access 100s of samples to buy almost all of the cards in the set every month. The supply is there today but clearly more people are collecting them. If you decide to sell yours I wouldn't expect to buy them back cheaper on average in a year or so.

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Posted By: jay behrens

There will never be a crash in prices vintage cards any time in the near future, especially in commons. I can testify to the fact that sell now hoping to buy cheaper at a later date or waiting to buy something, you better buy now. I sold my entire collection in 1991 and I could not afford to rebuild that same collection today.

Jay

Growing old is not optional, growing up is.

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Posted By: David Vargha

Also, sudden price increases don't indicate a "bubble". A sustained, sharp increase fueled by speculative pressures and an underlying belief that one must buy now or never again see these prices is the engine of a bubble. However, prices can both turn up sharply, never to return to their previous levels as well as turn up sharply and then correct somewhat without a speculative bubble being the fundamental cause in either case.

It's simply a matter of going back to Econ 101 and looking at the supply and demand curves. Demand has grown immensely as the Internet has served to create a previously unknown supply. This is great for everyone. What is somewhat puzzling is when more accessible sets such as T206 experience price increases like those mentioned. However, one simply has to go back to the P&Q curves of the Supply and Demand charts to see that rising demand drives rising prices.

Now, we must remember that we have been in a period of sustained economic growth for the last 15 years or so. An economic "shock" or catastrophe could easily have a devastating effect on the entire card market. As such, at that time I would rather be holding the cards not only in the greatest demand in the current market, but having the added element of scarcity as well should I ever need to sell. Nonetheless, this is an age-old phenomenon that is certainly brought up quite often on this board. Prices as a whole tend to go up over time. Sometimes we start to sound like our parents when we recite the "When I was a kid" mantra. Just know that sometimes people "discover" certain cards and that means that their days of being underpriced are over. Other times, new money comes in to chase certain cards and it creates undue price pressures that cannot be sustained over time. I wish I could always discern one from the other.

DavidVargha@hotmail.com

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Posted By: barrysloate

What might be interesting here, although probably would be unsuccessful, is to contact the few top bidders and ask them what their thinking was. A scarce card always has the potential to overperform if several collectors need it for a set. But this is a card that appears frequently and should generally sell in the $50-60 range. What were they thinking as they were bidding? As far as the state of the card market all markets that rise quickly have the potential to fall a bit. The vintage card market is pretty darn strong but the economy in general is starting to show a few cracks. Time will tell whether vintage cards will fall, but in the case of this Bescher, it doesn't seem like a very intelligent purchase and it is possible that the top two or three bidders weren't that experienced or were simply very impulsive. I don't advise collectors who are taking inventory of their collections to value their Vg-EX commons at $340. This was an anomaly.

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Posted By: Noel

Jay, agreed. I dont think there will ever be a crash in vintage cards. Some price flucuations yes. Just wondering why you say "especially not commons". I know for myself i cant stand paying large sums for commons but do occasionally to complete the set.

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Posted By: Pete Z.

Just because the guy won it for that amount doesn't mean he's going to pay. I've had a number of anomalously high sales of graded t-cards end in buyers not following through with sales. For instance, this Heine Wagner sold for $218 a few weeks ago to a buyer who suddenly was no longer a registered user. My second chance offers to first loser were not acted upon as well.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=8816961478&rd=1&sspagename=STRK%3AMESE%3AIT&rd=1

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Posted By: Pete Z.

A PSA 3(MK) T206 Street portrait selling for $14.50? Could be that for every card selling unusually high, there's one selling for too little. We just notice the ones selling for too high.

http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-T-206-1909-11-Gabby-Street-Portrait-PSA-3-VG-MK_W0QQitemZ8812470884QQcategoryZ31718QQssPageName ZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

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Posted By: joe brennan

I just looked back at my records of my purchases of T206's. I've keep a complete record of all purchases, price and dates. I wanted to see how much I was spending to put the set together. I started in June a Bought the Bescher in July. Here's what I paid, granted it a common back. Price includes shipping.

40 BESCHER CINCINNATI PORTRAIT PIEDMONT 350 FAC 25 PSA 4 $ 26

I still am tracking portraits in SGC 50-PSA 4 range and I am seeing that the prices have been effected by the rise in PSA 5's and 6's. I'm noticing more and more PSA 4's ending in the $60-65 range instead of the $40-50 range just 2 months ago. Granted, I only tracking portraits as that's what I'm focusing on to add to my set at this time. Joe


A scared man can't gamble and a jealous man can't work.

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Posted By: Todd

One of my best friends (and fellow VBC lurker) was actually one of the top bidders on that card. His reasoning was that the card looked exceptional for the grade and that he specifically wanted this pose with the Old Mill back. He is a Cincinnati-only collector and frequently eschews the market price to get a card that he wants (don't we all at times). Beyond that, I have no earthly idea why the two top bidders went over $100 beyond his extremely generous bid.

Apparently the runner-up on the card in question was simply after any T206 Bescher (Hands Up) that was available and he did indeed get his man a mere 24 hours later when he purchased this overgraded example:

http://cgi.ebay.com/1909-1911-T206-Bob-Bescher-Hands-in-Air-PSA-4_W0QQitemZ8815752037QQcategoryZ31718QQssPageNameZ WDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

After seeing this particular card, does anyone now think that the extra $290 would have been money well spent on the Old Mill (or are we all just scratching our heads over PSA's grading standards)?

It's all an endless source of facination to me and speculation is the spice of life.

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Posted By: barry arnold

when Jay says he sold his entire collection in '91 and cannot afford to
buy back that same collection today,you can almost see the tears.
and that's from ole straight shooter Jay Behrens.
that says it all as far as i'm concerned.
selling what you love costs far too much.
in too many ways.


holding on to my 4's and 50's and everything else

barry

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Posted By: jay behrens

There are only a few cards from that collection that I really regret selling. The collection was sold for the right reasons at the time, but with hindsight, I should have at least hung on to a few of the cards. If I am every in a situation again where selling my cards is the right decision, there a few cards that will not be sold. Foremost among those are my Thorpe card and red border Cologan Speaker.

Jay

Growing old is not optional, growing up is.

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Posted By: Paul Stratton

I don't know if this is a factor or not but the latest SMR raised vg/ex prices on EVERY 20th century pre-war set. They are stil way behind but some people don't get on board until they see the little +++ symbols.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

meaning that they seldom drop, because the typical part-time seller says to heck with it and keeps the card if he can't get his price rather than slashing prices and taking a loss or no profit. Case in point: I wanted a certain sum for a Mello Mint I had, I held out through several offers, I finally got my price. Had I not gotten my price, I'd have just kept the card. IMHO, card prices on good prewar stuff tend to escalate because folks simply won't put them out there unless it is for their price, leading to bidding wars over cards folks want when they do come to market.

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Posted By: Steve M.

Has the world gone nuts?
http://cgi.ebay.com/T206-Ossee-Schreck-Southern-Lg-Low-Pop-PSA-VG-EX-4_W0QQitemZ8817508770QQcategoryZ31718QQrdZ1QQcmdZV iewItem

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Posted By: Rick

That last one is a classic bidding war.

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Posted By: Todd

Lo and behold! The winning bidder on that Schreck card is the selfsame runner-up on the overbid Bescher. There may be larger forces at work here.

As for me, I have not parted ways with even one of my T206's despite my enormous temptation to do so in this market.

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Posted By: Mike Brailey

Todd,

I take great offense to your last posting on Network 54 regarding any insinuation that the T206 Bescher auction was in any way illegetimate. I take great pride in my honesty and integrity and feel slandered by your comments as I believe you have absolutely no right to make this type of comment without any real evidence.

I posted a card on Ebay, the card sold for much more than I valued it and the item was paid for in full by a person I do not know living some 2,000 miles away from me in a state I have never visited. I've posted 19 other cards on ebay over the past 2 weeks and many of the cards have sold for much less than I thought they would. How would you explain these? Do you think someone would be so ignorant as to make one sale stand out so much if they were really trying to defraud?

I've been an ebay member for many years and as of yet have not received a negative or neutral comment out of over 1,000 transactions. I've bought cards from many prominent dealers and top auction houses over the past 20+ years and keep excellent credit with each and every one. I've interacted with many Network 54 members and have always negotiated and traded in good faith.

What basis do you have for making your allegation other than a person who was an underbidder on one auction soon after bid on a similar graded item that went for a high price in a different seller's auction?

I find this entire public commentary distasteful especially when it jeopardized the initial sale to what turned out to be a genuine buyer and now has questioned my integrity. I do not believe your comment is in the true spirit for which Network 54 was started.

Regards,
Mike Brailey (Ebay ID: brails)

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Posted By: leon

I have bought from Mike "Brails" many times and never had an issue. I think our other valued board member might have jumped to a conclusion on this one. I have seen some really whacky prices lately and none of these were the "most" whacky. Guard those T206's with your lives guys....best regards.....moderator dude

edited for spelling and spelling again...

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Posted By: Josh K.

Maybe Im missing something, but I dont see where Todd has questioned Mike's trustworthiness as a seller at all.

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Posted By: robert a

Josh,

"There may be larger forces at work here."

If I was Mike, I'd be disapointed as well.
He listed many cards on ebay and got "lucky" with one card that did pretty well. Immediately, it's on the board...probably before the payment even made it to him.

Good job Board Police!! You really sniffed this one out!

Rob

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Posted By: Josh K.

Robert, the "board police" werent trying to sniff out a scam. This thread was about the high price paid for that card and whether we are about to see a run up on t206s - nothing more. I just dont think the comment about "larger forces being at work" was intended to be a knock on Mike.

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Posted By: Todd

Dear Mike,

My unfortunately cryptic comment was in no way, shape or form intended to be slap against you or your honesty and I am deeply sorry if you or others understood it to be such. You should be congratulated for getting a nice price on your auction and I, for one, am happy for you.

This thread was started to question why the Bescher card would bring such a large auction price. I think some folks honestly wondered if they had missed some aspect of why that card may have been more valuable than they would have thought and wanted the board's learned opinion on it. I defied my traditional status of lurker to initially weigh in and mildly defend my friend's rather large bid on that card which some deemed lacking in intelligence.

Another member then posted the Schreck (with a different seller) whose final price also seemingly defied traditional reasoning. I merely made mention of the fact that the buyer was (strangely) also the individual who had fallen just short on the Bescher card and that it was perhaps more than a coincidence. This was meant to playfully call into question the actions of that particular bidder but was not intended to impugn either of the sellers in the least.

My choice of words obviously could have been better (or at least better elaborated). My "larger forces" remark was meant to invoke an inside joke shared by a couple of us. We often speculate that certain eBayers who are throwing down serious coin on relatively "common" T206's (like the aforementioned "hecte-ionia") are actually shell ID's for nefarious individuals hell-bent on driving the prices into the stratosphere so that they can then rule the universe. "Come out from behind that two-way mirror, Olbermann -- We know it's you! Anyway, a bad joke with unfortunate and unintended consequences.

Again, all apologies on my sleep-deprived statements and actions. A slow holiday weekend at home is the Devil's playground.