O/T -- but related to baseball card scarcity!

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2429888

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Posted By: Cobby33

Give it a few months (or less). It will be worth $5 (or less), much like the Ripken.

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Posted By: honus3415

One can only imagine the run on cigarettes at tobacco shops when that first smoker found the pulled Honus Wagner in his pack.

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Posted By: Paul

The funny thing is that the guy who pulled 5 of these cards out of packs at Walmart probably didn't make all that much money. According to the story, he bought 1000 packs of cards in search of additional Alex Gordons. I don't know what Topps charges for packs these days -- $3? So he probably spent around 3K, and sold the 5 Gordons for 5K. Two thousand is a nice profit, but I'm not sure it justifies the risk he undertook in spending 3K on 2006 Topps cards, particularly when he had no idea at the time how much the Gordons would sell for.

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Posted By: Paul

The buy-it-now price on ebay is now 39.99. These things crashed much more quickly than the Ripken obscenity card.

http://cgi.ebay.com/2006-Topps-Baseball-Box-Rare-Alex-Gordon-Rookie_W0QQitemZ8805624946QQcategoryZ98009QQrdZ1QQ cmdZViewItem

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Posted By: Hal Lewis

Paul:

That is for a box that "might" contain the card... not the card itself.

The card is on EBay at $1,400 currently with 5 days to go.

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Posted By: Paul Stratton

I think the 39.99 is for a 10 pack box with no Alex Gordon guaranteed.

...or what Hal said.

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Posted By: nbrazil

This is what the modern card market thrives on...forced scarcity and/or investor hype. This card happens to fit both....in three extreme ways. The card is scarce, is of a high draft pick and is featured in many local and national newspapers/websites. Every high priced modern card pretty much follows this trend. About 99% of them usually crash before you look the other way.

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Posted By: Rob Fouch

. . . OK, Tom Gordon. But hey, it was fun. After reading the ESPN article, figured I'd stop by the Wal-Mart near my house and see if they had any packs. There were about 10 left. 2 bucks each. Not terrible looking cards. Shiny, of course. But I hadn't bought modern cards in years. So it was kind of fun. One weird thing, there were insert cards of the signers of the Declaration of Independence. I pulled a William Whipple and a William Williams. I'm entertaining trade offers.

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Posted By: cmoking

Paul, don't forget about the fact he can get some dough back for the rest of the cards. So your numbers are a bit off.

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Posted By: nbrazil

rob...im probably a hypocrite, but ive busted some modern packs/boxes before. when i was a kid, that was the most exciting thing about the hobby....and it seemed like every single pack had some meaning to it. I'm fairly young..so, my memories are of pulling frank thomas and griffey jr cards and jumping up with joy. and they werent inserts...just the regular cards. nowadays...when i do bust open some modern, i would go through the box...and if there isnt that difficult to pull insert card...an auto card...a game used card....i would feel like this was a waste of money. the only joy i would get is the feeling of opening up card packs again....but, after the damage is done and i realized i spent 40 dollars on 10 minutes of pack busting fun and 100 pieces of shiny cardboard...i geel bad. sort of like an alcholic or any addict....ephemeral joy and then long, sustained guilt.

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Posted By: Rob Fouch

I'm not too old . . . yet. The cards that were thrilling to me to pull were Sandberg (huge Cubs fan), Mattingly, Ripken, and any and all Cubs. Loved Leon Durham and Ron Cey.
I didn't really get into cards until I was a teenager. Unfortunately, that coincided with the '80s/'90s glut, so I ended up with boxes and boxes of cards that were produced in the bazillions. But I understand what you mean about the addictive quality. Today I found myself scrounging around the display at Wal-Mart looking for stray 2006 Topps packs. Logically, I knew I had virtually no chance of getting the Gordon card (which I suppose I would have sold and used the proceeds for a Cobb or something), but still couldn't help myself. Guess it's sort of the same reason people spend hundreds of dollars on the lottery when they'd be much better off just putting the money in savings or investing it somehow.

I don't (or I try not to) judge anyone else's collecting tastes. I'm sure plenty of people out there would think we're nuts for spending the kind of money we do on cards of players, excluding the obvious biggies, who most people have never heard of. If someone wants to collect shiny cardboard, more power to them. As long as they enjoy it.

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Posted By: fkw

2 on eBay right now, this one (BGS-9.5) IMO will be the highest this card will get (because of the ESPN story conection, and dumb $$)

1st Alex Gordon BGS-9.5

2nd Alex Gordon

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Posted By: Glenn

I imagine all the hype will bring some new blood into the hobby, and that many of the new folks will jump pretty quickly into the pre-war party.

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Posted By: davidcycleback

The key with cards like this is to wait several months to purchase one. They will be the same cards but at a fraction of the price.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

I am not as skeptical as many out there; I don't think it will end up valueless because (1) there are enough Topps collectors out there to keep it somewhat afloat for a very long time and (2) it is not an error or an insert and is part of a mainstream set that will not be complete without it, so there will always be some collectors who are interested in paying some money to complete the set. That said, I think it will eventually settle in at the $15-$25 or so level provided he does not become the next A-Rod. The ones bidding through the roof on it today are going to be left holding the bag, IMHO. But WTF do I know; I still have a stack of Topps Desert Sheild baseball cards that I purchased from a Marine just after the war. That was the same show where the promoter was so chastened by bad attendance that he gave us dealers a free autograph with the guest, a young slugger named Rafael Palmiero.