Which kind of bidder are you?

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Posted By: Eric B

I have always been facinated by the different stratagies folks use when bidding for their favorite items and why they think they work. (sniper, blow them away up front, too paranoid to leave a ceiling and so on) I have used all three, although I have never retained the service of a sniping company.

I must also say that it never ceases to amaze me how often my ceiling bid will be matched but not topped leaving me the winner but not at a bargain. Does this happen to anyone else on a regular basis? I fully realize in the competative world of vintage card collecting some may not wish to divulge their "secrets", but for those who are willing, I thought it might be interesting.

Here goes mine. On ebay I have had success with waiting around till the last minute to snipe a bid myself. As for the auction houses, I used to leave ceilings but it does seem to be getting out of hand, at least for me. It seems my high bids get matched more and more. I am trying to be more diciplined in leaving my max bid on ebay early and if it is topped, no big deal. (easier said than done!!) Anyone wish to share bidding experiences? let er rip!

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Posted By: Eric B

the purpose of this thread is NOT auction house bashing. I just thought it might be a neat topic.

Thanks
Eric

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Posted By: Anonymous

I esnipe everything on eBay.

Basically every other night, I will sit down for an hour and copy down eBay id numbers of items that I'm interested in. I will then write down my max bid on a sheet of paper and go one by one on esnipe typing in numbers and max bids. The max bids depend on how badly I want it.

If it's a Bobby Wallace PSA5 with a typical back, I may type in an amount of $200. If I win it, good, if I don't, I'm sure Bobby will show up again in that grade soon enough.

If it's a Jake Stahl PSA5 with a Red Hindu back, I may go overboard.

A long time ago I went overboard on a T206 (I think it was a high grade Dolly Stark) and eBay kept telling me that I was outbid and this was angering me. I kept pounding numbers and finally I won the piece after five tries but paid way too much for it. An esnipe program would have saved me in this instance.

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Posted By: Dan

This may seem paranoid- but every time i left a high max bid on an auction house auction, it seemed that no matter what, i would win it for the max if i won it at all. It was never lower than the max.

I started to think maybe there way a way the house could see the max bids and pad out the auctions. I have no proof of this, but i have to say it has affected how i bid on non-ebay auctions

Has anyone ever thought of this?

Dan

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Posted By: Dave Williams

I like sniping.

I hate being sniped.

Why bid until you have to? Just hope you have the high snipe bid in with 5 seconds to go and hold on.

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Posted By: Julie

I only bid ONCE on each item I think I might be interested in. When it's time when all first time bidders on each item
must already have bid, if I am not high (which I usually am not), I bid on--probably only one--item, until I am high bidder. I NEVER place limit bids; it's like drawing a line in the sand--"Just DARE top step over this!" and sure enough, someone will. Then I play as much of a waiting game as possible. I try to wait until the last 5-7 minutes before someone else wins the item to raise him.

But--at this point, I am playing it by ear. If someone raises my winning bid at half the time till the bid is scheduled to run out, I may IMMEDIATELY raise his bid. The object is to make the opponent think I have all the money in the world, and never grow tired.

There is ONE EXCEPTION to my rule never to place a limit bid; if my funds are a more limited than I would like, when the bid is 2-3 steps below my highest POSSIBLE bid bnefore i runj out of money, I WILL fill that slot.

As soon as the aution starts, when I see something I really want (like the Old Judge Hoy in the Mastro just concluded), I get my FUNDS together--as much as I think I ought to bid and a little more (I find that an excellent rule: to win, you need to bid as much as you think you ought to, and a little more). If I think I might have enough, I'll go for it, even if I'm disappointed. If the thing is OBSCENELY expensive, I probably don't have th money to begin with, and would stop bidding before the obscene level is reached.

I try not to WANT stuff I can never afford. Why bother?

Everything I want on ebay (which is damned little) I snipe. Same rule applies--bid as high ass you think you should, and then a little higher.

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Posted By: Richard Simon

"I must also say that it never ceases to amaze me how often my ceiling bid will be matched but not topped leaving me the winner but not at a bargain."
That was an earlier comment on this thread. I can state for a fact (I don't have documented evidence, so the guilty will remain unnamed) but a former employee of a second level auction house, who I was friendly with, told me that they shill like crazy. A close friend of mine was high bidder with this auction house on a game used item. The bid was around $500, which was about what the item was worth. He desperately wanted it, and did not want to be topped after he went to sleep, so he left a $1500 ceiling bid before going to bed.
GUESS WHAT - he woke up the next morning and owned the piece for $1500. WHAT A SHOCK. He asked me if I thought he was getting ripped off . I just shrugged.

-------

I refuse to engage in a battle of wits with an unarmed opponent.

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Posted By: Dan Bretta

I usually snipe on ebay because I know there are collectors of the same items I collect who follow my ebay bidding. Sometimes I will place an early bid on an high profile item in the hopes that it will discourage the seller from ending the auction early. On an auctionhouse auction I will place early bids, but never my ceiling bid until the auction is nearing the end. I got outbid on both items I was interested in in the Mastro auction last night in the extended bidding period and I lost both of them because one person was willing to go one step higher than me.

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Posted By: Julie

The first letter of the lphbet doesn't work on my keybord.

wht I would be bidding on in running uction. I replied. "I'm frid you nd I will be bidding on the sme two items. Sniffle." I don't suppose this truly gets me pity, but it's worth trying (I'm trying to use words with no--first letter of the lphbet in them)

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Posted By: Rob L

Auction Sniper!

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Posted By: RobertEdwardAuctions

In response to Dan's post:

"Paranoid auction house bidder? February 25 2005, 8:35 PM

This may seem paranoid- but every time i left a high max bid on an auction house auction, it seemed that no matter what, i would win it for the max if i won it at all. It was never lower than the max.

I started to think maybe there way a way the house could see the max bids and pad out the auctions. I have no proof of this, but i have to say it has affected how i bid on non-ebay auctions

Has anyone ever thought of this?

Dan"

With the exception of eBay auctions and Robert Edward Auctions (see Honest Auto Bid information at "http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/rea_bid.html" all auctions can and do see each and every max bid you place. The auction houses have never claimed otherwise. In the absence of utilizing the Honest Auto Bid style system there is no way for them to NOT have access to the Max bids when they are placed. So max bids are always placed "in confidence" with the auction houses, who in many cases own the material being auctioned and as an entity may actually allow themselves to bid in their own auctions, and whose employees and executives also may consign and bid in their own auctions, and who have many incentives for prices to be higher on items they do not own as well. If the auction house, auction house executives, and all of the employees (who include many very good friends of consignors) who have access to this information are all honest, then of course there is absolutely no issue and absolutely nothing to be concerned about whatsoever.

Last year Honest Auto Bid was profiled in Auctioneer Magazine, the official publication of the National Auctioneers Association, and in the article all auction houses were invited to inquire about the possibility of adopting Honest Auto Bid, just as we do on our site ("We invite any and all bidders, members of the media, as well as other auction houses potentially interested in adopting these systems, to contact us to verify and receive a demonstration of the 100% guaranteed security of this significant, and in our opinion, revolutionary bidding system feature.") No auction house has yet inquired (though many individuals have).

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Posted By: Dave

I almost alway snipe, by myself (ebay). I will often bid early in an auction because it is as easy as My ebay. But that will usually be at half expected price or lower.

To snipe on my own, I take the ebay page of the card I want, make it about 3" tall, and it Ctrl-N. Presto, a second copy. This one I lower below the first. I continually hit refresh on the lower window, while I've typed in my snipe bid in the top, up to the confirm page. So, I can track the price in the bottom window, and with 10 seconds left, hit confirm on the top.

Does it work? I don't go overboard on my bids, so I only win 1 in 5 - seems like 1 in 10 lately. I also synchronize my PC clock with NIST, which tracks ebay to the second. I usually double click on the clock at the lower right, which opens a floating clock with second hand, which I place top right corner, away from the two bid windows.

If there are two cards finishing within minutes of each other, I will go through the same process twice until I have 4 windows available. Since these won't all fit, I'll layer these left to right, with the two cards separated top to bottom. So, the bid window is on bottom, sticking out on the left, and the track window is on the right, with the refresh button available.

Anal? Of course, but it keeps the bidding interesting.

Sniping makes the auction like a closed bid, may the top bid win.

Dave

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Posted By: Chuck R

I always snipe as most collectors in my area know me and I'd rather not let them see me coming...I have found some tough stuff in odd categories and there doesn't seem to be any reason to do someone else's work for them. I normally use ensipe, but if it's something I really want I will usually snipe manually and use esnipe as a backup. Another reason I don't ever bid early is that it allows people to chip away at your bid and even if you win it may cost you a lot of money. If someone puts something rare up, I usually email the seller right away and let them know that I'll be coming in with a big bid at the end....in doing this I try to deter those a@#!holes who try to rip off sellers by trying to talk them into pulling the auction. I've brought this up on the board before, but I still don't understand what a seller has to benefit by not letting the free market do its thing. The only reason these people have to get the seller to pull their auction is that they're afraid someone will outbid them.

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Posted By: Scottopotamus

I mainly go for low grade T206 and use a sniper program. I also collect two modern common players from this area and have seen auctions cancelled because there were no bids placed with a couple of hours remaining. That is always a risk when using a sniping program.

I am somewhat afraid that since Ebay bought Paypal, they may also go after the top “snipe” website. This would allow them to possibly add a “snipe proof” feature (and fee) to their listings and allow bidding to continue after the auction was scheduled to close.

My apologies in advance if this scenario has been discussed before.


Scottoptamus
My T206 Web Site

http://www.freewebs.com/scottopotamus

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Posted By: Anonymous

The World's Worst T206 Collection? No way!

Your collection and site is neat Scott. Keep going!

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Posted By: davidcycleback

When I would sell on eBay, I would sometimes put up items and if there weren't bids after a couple days, I'd pull them ... Occasionally, I'd write such a convincing auction description that it would convince me to keep the item-- sometimes before the item was posted on eBay, sometimes before there was a bid.

I never pulled or stopped an auction if there was a bid,even at $1, but I always considered it my right to change my mind if there was no bidding. So, I can tell you waiting until the last second to drop a bid isn't always effective.

For the record, I have won items in major auctions (MastroNet for one), where my winning bid was below my maximum.

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Posted By: T206Collector

To me it's simple and plain -- if you bid on ebay earlier than 30 seconds before the close of an auction then you were (1) never really that interested in winning the auction but (2) wanted to make sure the seller got as much money as possible. In a perfect world, everyone would snipe their auctions in the final seconds so that no one would be permitted to bid a second time. That way, people are forced to make decisions about what an item is worth to them, without being swayed by the competitiveness that drives people to bid higher than their initial bid when they are not the highest bidder.

Think about it -- The reason ebay doesn't just allow one bid per customer is that it is in their best interest to create bidding frenzies to drive up final values. It's a good policy for ebay sellers, too. But fellow bidders, bidding early and often, are a bidder's worst enemy.

We need a bidder's union.

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Posted By: John

It depends on the rarity of the card. If it is an item that is common, I will usually enter a bid for I what I would like to pay days before the auction ends. This startegy has worked well over the last five years. Nine times out of ten I get outbid, but patience usually pays off in the long run (by not having to overpay for a common).

On tougher cards I am a ruthless sniper, often placing my final high bid two seconds before the auction closes. I have a small digital clock next to the computer that I synchronize with the auction. I too have become increasingly less successful at winning auctions this way.

Another "startegy" that I employ is looking for items that have strange endtimes, especially early morning. I have landed a few gems this way, including a VG-EX T206 Walter Johnson portrait for around $150 last year (midweek end time, about 6:00am Eastern). The seller in this case did not normally deal in cards, which is another reason some may have resisted bidding.

I agree with the sentiments of most in this thread: bidding has become much more competitive recently, but I believe that is for investment type cards rather than collectible types. I will stick to the lower grades, money ruins things for collectors. It would be a fabrication to say that I am not aware of the value of vintage material, but the $$$ is why the hobby has changed so much in the last 15 years (especially the last five) and that is why we are all discussing bidding strategies.

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Posted By: Hi There :)

I like to sign the guest book.

I like being a bird dog to others.

The item might just fall through the cracks.

I like competition, and love macho bidding wars.

It's good for eBay, and the recovery of our economy.

The item deserves recognition, and I want to be part of it.

Better yet, I want the recognition, the hell with the item.

Who cares if someone outbids me.

I didn't want the damn item anyway.

I signed the Guest Book!

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Posted By: rod48

Had to quit ebay bidding because I was frequently winning items at a high maximum bid and maybe only one or two other bidders. And the selling price is exactly at my ceiling. A little too much of a coincidence. Maybe a paranoid hunch but I believe if there is a way to cheat there will be cheating. Seems like others had the same experience.

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Posted By: anonymousdave

mostly an under-bidder these days..

....occasionally an over-bidder

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Posted By: warshawlaw

on ebay I snipe anything I really want but will bid the minimm or a suitably lowball price on something I would not mind owning at a lowball price. I always walk away, however, and rarely ever bid again. I also like to snipe to prevent fishing for my max--if I am not known to be a bidder until the last minute, no one can shill me.

I do not win lots from mastro, so no point in discussing that I have won lots well below my max from 19th Century Only, Lew Lipset and Clean Sweep so I would commend those auctioneers as running honest auctions. I was in fact pleasantly surprised to come away from the recent CS auction with an Exhibit Salutations Williams #9 showing for $41 (I'd gone nearly twice that as a max bid). I do not believe that much of the max bid winning is due to shilling on the auctioneers' part; rather, it is due to the winning bidder's analysis of the cards' values matching those of most other astute buyers. I think that has a lot to do with why many wins are at the max for many of us; the perfect market theory in action (i.e., the better the information available, the better the analysis of every rational economic actor, and the more prices will tend to an equilibrium point reflecting true value). In general when it comes to auction houses, I am not willing to bid until the last day because I don't need the stress of riding out my bid.

Since I have spent so much time looking at prices for my boxing card guides, I think there are also some innate tendencies people have when it comes to analyzing numbers (and there some psychological research to back up human tendencies towards pattern making, which would support this theory), such as rounding to the next increment of $0.25 on ebay, and not breaking whole digit ceilings readily (e.g., bidding $99.99 rather than $100.01, $29.99 rather than $30, etc.), and that these tendencies lead bidders to converge at certain set points, generating duplicate maximum bid analysis from various bidders. Auctioneers tend to artificially supplant this with minimum increment rules but even then I have noticed a tendency to add 15% to the total and gravitate towards the bids that are readily divisible into the lot (e.g., bidding the increment closest to an even number per card, bidding to an increment closest to a per card average I would like to pay, etc.). Since I started analyzing pricing so intensely, I have noticed that the occasions where I have hit with my snipes at one increment more than the underbidder's max has greatly increased. Some of you probably know just what I mean; you can almost feel where the item is going to land.

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Posted By: Julie

like when it's been sitting at 279.00 for 5 days, and then suddenly sells for 1,100.00...

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Posted By: Charles Prawdzik

1. SCAN ebay for items with wrong spelling, incorrect category listing, closing during "off" hours, postings by uninformed sellers, photos that include items not described, etc. Ask Seller questions. I do this for low priced, novelty and unusual items only, not graded cards from reputable dealers. The only bargains I have ever found are from this approach. Must be very careful to avoid fakes and scam artists.

2. RESEARCH for my primary vintage purchases. This consists of price comparison (T206 website, SCBC, SMR, Aucton catalogs, and eBay completed sales), Population (graded higher and total graded from the slab service websites) to identify low pop cards, and historical (National BB HOF, BB-Ref and BB-Library .coms to provide an education on players, games and teams.

3. SNIPE once a week I identify 6-8 cards, usually from one or two dealers, that I would like to own, after looking at 50-75 cards. Must be very careful to avoid fakes and scam artists. I take one sheet of plain white paper and complete a manual spreadsheet for these 6-8 cards, summarizing my research, and arriving at the maximum price I am willing to pay to own that card. I will enter those bids manually, 5 seconds before auction closes. Each week I will bid on 4-6 and usually win 1 or 2 auctions.

This works for me, and for me the hunt is as exciting as winning.

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Posted By: warshawlaw

So much easier than what you described, esp. no need to babysit an auction.