What is the (predicted) future of card grading services?

[Belfast1933]

I don’t mean to recycle tired old topics like how much we all have issues with the major grading companies around their questionable fee models, terrible customer service, and seemingly changing standards over the last several years.

I have a different question - imagine us are now all +10 years from now looking back at the last decade of how the hobby grades its cards… what are the possible outcomes and game changer scenarios that could happen?

- DIY authentication and grading services using AI?
- Well organized “crowd sourcing” models where collectors police themselves over hundreds of opinions on cards authenticity and/or “score?”
- A well funded, new entrant in the grading business who simply takes significant share away from PSA, finding a way to solve collector frustrations with the current options?
- vintage collectors migrate back in larger numbers to ungraded card collections
- or very little change at all…

I know we have lots of business savvy collectors here and I’d love to hear your thoughts - I’m just continually disappointed and/or confused by my own experiences but I know I am still feeding into the problem but simply repeating the process and hoping for a better result.

So, when we all look back in 10 years, what do we think will have changed in the card grading business for all of us?

[MVSNYC]

[darwinbulldog]

3D printing of new "vintage" cards that the collectors and 3rd party graders cannot distinguish from the originals. End of the hobby.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by darwinbulldog

3D printing of new "vintage" cards that the collectors and 3rd party graders cannot distinguish from the originals. End of the hobby.

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

[Leon]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

I think we are a long ways off from true AI grading on vintage cards. But it would be nice to take some of the idiocy, we see every day, out of it.

[jingram058]

There are algorithms for everything now. When I was in the Navy, one of my jobs was writing them to be used on static and moving satellite imagery in order to determine and forecast critical meteorological info for places that don't send out that info to us. I retired in 2007. I can only imagine the improvements and advancements since. Yes, in the next 10 years you very easily could see self-service card authentication and grading. Sure, there will be bugs to refine initially, as with every other new development. But imagine how it would affect the hobby. Even a graded card nay-sayer such as myself might change my tune.

[bmattioli]

Originally Posted by Leon

I think we are a long ways off from true AI grading on vintage cards. But it would be nice to take some of the idiocy, we see every day, out of it.

Oh yea?? I called tonight to renegotiate my Sirius subscription and it was ALL AI driven. " Mary" Gave me a great deal and renewed for another year. It's coming everywhere and no stopping it..

[Kco]

Originally Posted by bnorth

Why 3D printing? Since the originals are really not that old and the same technology still exists we are just lucky more are not making perfect "copies" that get by the graders.

I am going with AI grading being the norm as it would truly be fair. I see a lot of resistance from those making a ton off PSA or have a ton of cash into PSA cards but the time will come when the dumpster fire that is PSA will be gone or reinvented to an all AI grading company.

We had nearly a dozen "AI" model and small type grading operations startup and fail within 2 years during peak hobby boom of the early 2020s. Unfortunately the cost and reality to get into that side of the business is massively expensive and grabbing market share from established giants would be incredibly difficult.

People are entrenched with PSA/SGC. Hell, look at the CGC/JSA combo, while its incrementally gaining some market share, it will be very, very difficult to take a meaningful chunk of PSA business. The reality of the pure capital outlay, THEN winning hobbyist trust, THEN taking away business while somehow turning a profit is a monumental mountain to climb for any new company.

Also, AI, like most things, will evolve and may be used as a tool vs a replacement. If it heads that route I'd expect PSA/CGC to implement a sort of AI Pre-grading phase, then validate initial scores with actual humans. It would in theory speed up the process and make it a bit more standardized.

I think the up-charge portion of the business is where there may be a chance if any meaningful contraction in submissions happen.

[ullmandds]

At this time...PSA is the 800lb gorilla sitting slumped over in the corner. There is no beating PSA at this time.

[conor912]

I predict Fanatics buys Collectors and slabs every card it makes BEFORE packaging. And then, of course, they will also offer a service to send in your already graded cards to be “Verified”, then slabbed in a second slab. Of course, some of these already slabbed cards will be rejected for a second slab because, you know, “graders are human and make mistakes too”….but in the name of customer service, will of course take a third look for another meager grading fee.

[theshowandme]

Originally Posted by Belfast1933

- Well organized “crowd sourcing” models where collectors police themselves over hundreds of opinions on cards authenticity and/or “score?”

I believe it’s about to become a real tool soon. The premise is that registered users of the site/app can vote on “eye appeal” and cards would be ranked by the eye appeal for that grade.

So you could say “I have the 5th highest rated T206 Green Portrait Ty Cobb in a PSA 2.5”

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eye_appeal...tmZ3djb2lmag==

Website: https://www.eyeappealinc.com/

[parkplace33]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I believe it’s about to become a real tool soon. The premise is that registered users of the site/app can vote on “eye appeal” and cards would be ranked by the eye appeal for that grade.

So you could say “I have the 5th highest rated T206 Green Portrait Ty Cobb in a PSA 2.5”

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eye_appeal...tmZ3djb2lmag==

Website: https://www.eyeappealinc.com/

Bingo. I think future grading would be more than just one grade. Maybe a series of grades? Similar to Beckett but more enhanced.

[Hankphenom]

How about a machine that has AI fix any imperfections, undetectable by human eyes?

[conor912]

What if PSA started offering a card cleaning service? Wouldn’t that just be insane?!

[jingram058]

AI and the algorithms behind it is everywhere. It's not going to stop. It's only going to progress. It's scary, but that's how it is. It doesn't seem to me at all unreasonable to see it in card authentication and grading, sooner rather than later. I imagine the oil companies are trying desperately to sabotage EVs, and trying desperately to come up with some way of remaining relevant failing at that. I imagine the PSA monopoly in the same light.

[gomaz]

Originally Posted by theshowandme

I believe it’s about to become a real tool soon. The premise is that registered users of the site/app can vote on “eye appeal” and cards would be ranked by the eye appeal for that grade.

So you could say “I have the 5th highest rated T206 Green Portrait Ty Cobb in a PSA 2.5”

Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/eye_appeal...tmZ3djb2lmag==

Website: https://www.eyeappealinc.com/

I just had a walk through of Eye Appeal Inc. today with its founder MattyC. We did a Zoom and screenshare. It is launching in beta on July 7 and should launch publicly a month later.

It looks very awesome. Sort of everything the non-PSA kool-aid drinkers would want in democratizing card assessments. Notice I did not say grading as it is not a grading company but rather gives the community the ability to share their opinions on how a nice a card is overall.

I am very excited to start using it as a tool once launched and if anyone here is interested in learning more about Eye Appeal Inc. or its founder MattyC, he will be joining my July 19 episode of Sports Cards Live which also happens to be a part of Hobbypalooza (a 3-day YouTube content event hosted by the 4collectors Youtube channel).

I would encourage people to tune into this episode and then after, formulating your opinions on what this tool is and may become.