Paul Skenes Superfractor Ends in Goldin

[YankeeCollector]

Paul Skenes 1 of 1 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto ended tonight in Goldin Auctions at a touch over $80,000. I think it was a good price for the buyer. Investing in Pitchers is risky nowadays but Skenes looks like the real deal.
A Trout Superfractor sold for 3.9 Million a few years back.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by YankeeCollector

Paul Skenes 1 of 1 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto ended tonight in Goldin Auctions at a touch over $80,000. I think it was a good price for the buyer. Investing in Pitchers is risky nowadays but Skenes looks like the real deal.
A Trout Superfractor sold for 3.9 Million a few years back.

He's pitched 4 games. Think it might be a bit early?

[4815162342]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's pitched 4 games. Think it might be a bit early?

LOL just a smidge.

[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's pitched 4 games. Think it might be a bit early?

Obviously, a 4 game sample is nothing. But there are other very good reasons to believe that Paul Skenes is in fact the real deal. His strikeout numbers at every level are extraordinary. And he's hitting 102 on the gun as a starter. The gun is virtually unhittable. He very well might be the best pitcher on the planet right now.

[Topnotchsy]

Skenes is the highest profile rookie pitcher since Stephen Strasburg and before him probably Mark Prior. Both are great illustrations of the risk. Both were elite pitchers and likely could have made the HOF if injuries had not interfered. The concern is the same with Skenes. I hope for his sake and for baseball that he does not get injured, but I am certainly not confident he will avoid injury.

[BioCRN]

If Skenes has a ROY season the buyer can probably double the investment. If Skenes can win a CY in the next few years the buyer can probably count on the same outcome, if not more.

Tim Lincecum was great once. He was a top-10 overall minor league prospect when he broke into the bigs. He won CY a couple years in a row at ages 24 and 25. He had a couple more good years and the rest of his short career was about as remarkable as a middle-rotation starter.

Considering these 2 scenarios, if the buyer is in it to flip it, it's not a bad gamble even if it is a gamble. If he's in it to get a future HOF'r or a player with an otherwise notable career then that's a hell of a gamble the buyer is playing.

Hell, in this era you gotta cross your fingers and hope they're not into roids, inappropriate sex, or beating women as well as any talent that might fail.

[rjackson44]

Who lol

[Rich Klein]

Originally Posted by Topnotchsy

Skenes is the highest profile rookie pitcher since Stephen Strasburg and before him probably Mark Prior. Both are great illustrations of the risk. Both were elite pitchers and likely could have made the HOF if injuries had not interfered. The concern is the same with Skenes. I hope for his sake and for baseball that he does not get injured, but I am certainly not confident he will avoid injury.

Curt Schilling, whose baseball intelligence I respect greatly, posted on FB recently that he thought Skenes would need Tommy John within 400 innings of his major league debut. Just a note from a pitcher who should be in the HOF

Rich

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Curt Schilling, whose baseball intelligence I respect greatly, posted on FB recently that he thought Skenes would need Tommy John within 400 innings of his major league debut. Just a note from a pitcher who should be in HOF



Rich

That's a provocative thing for Schilling to say, and for you.

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[Snowman]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Curt Schilling, whose baseball intelligence I respect greatly, posted on FB recently that he thought Skenes would need Tommy John within 400 innings of his major league debut. Just a note from a pitcher who should be in HOF

Rich

That's pretty funny because I was thinking the exact same thing when I was watching him lol. He whips that elbow pretty ferociously.

[Snapolit1]

Wasn’t Steven Strasberg hitting 102 also?
Shit happens. A lot of it for pitchers.

Originally Posted by Snowman

Obviously, a 4 game sample is nothing. But there are other very good reasons to believe that Paul Skenes is in fact the real deal. His strikeout numbers at every level are extraordinary. And he's hitting 102 on the gun as a starter. The gun is virtually unhittable. He very well might be the best pitcher on the planet right now.

[butchie_t]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's pitched 4 games. Think it might be a bit early?

Two words come to mind for me……Kerry Wood

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by butchie_t

Two words come to mind for me……Kerry Wood

Ben McDonald. Todd Van Poppel. Rick Ankiel.

[doug.goodman]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

Ben McDonald. Todd Van Poppel. Rick Ankiel.

Imagine if he has the rookie season of Mark Fidrych...

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by doug.goodman

Imagine if he has the rookie season of Mark Fidrych...

Or Doc Gooden.

[toledo_mudhen]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

He's pitched 4 games. Think it might be a bit early?

Absolutely Ridiculous - IT'S A PIECE OF CARDBOARD with a picture of a guy that has a total of 4 games under his belt?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by YankeeCollector

I think it was a good price for the buyer. Investing in Pitchers is risky nowadays but Skenes looks like the real deal.
A Trout Superfractor sold for 3.9 Million a few years back.

I got a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. Modern pitchers never hold much value, even great ones. Even if he goes on to the HOF, it will lose value. He has to be one of the absolute greatest pitchers of all time (and probably on a different team) for that card to have a shot at being worth $80K in 10-15 years. Buying at the peak of a hype train for a rookie is rarely a good buy.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by G1911

I got a bridge in Brooklyn for sale. Modern pitchers never hold much value, even great ones. Even if he goes on to the HOF, it will lose value. He has to be one of the absolute greatest pitchers of all time (and probably on a different team) for that card to have a shot at being worth $80K in 10-15 years. Buying at the peak of a hype train for a rookie is rarely a good buy.

Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer are probably all in the discussion as all-time greats, what are their most valuable rookies? I bet it's less than $80k.

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer are probably all in the discussion as all-time greats, what are their most valuable rookies? I bet it's less than $80k.

To make it a fair assesment, they must have 1 of 1 signed rookie cards

[swarmee]

Originally Posted by Jay Wolt

To make it a fair assesment, they must have 1 of 1 signed rookie cards

They all do. Verlander's 2005 Topps Chrome has an auto superfractor. Kershaw had one in 2006. I think that Scherzer's Red 1/1 parallel of 2008 Bowman Draft would have been autographed, but I haven't seen it.

[YankeeCollector]

I wouldnt spend this money on a pitcher but he will have an opportunity to sell this for a quick profit (A 20k game, a no hitter) etc.
Skenes is fun to watch and the hype is huge. MLB network carried his debut.
The kid seems like a good kid- wish him well.

[Topnotchsy]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Kershaw, Verlander and Scherzer are probably all in the discussion as all-time greats, what are their most valuable rookies? I bet it's less than $80k.

Not that it matters but I am quite confident that Kershaw and Verlander's Bowman Chrome Auto 1/1's are worth well north of $80K. Possibly north of $500K.

Not that it makes the Skenes purchase more likely to look like a good deal in 5 years from now.

[Lucas00]

I'd be exhilarated if that was my consignment. And I would be hoping it gets paid for.

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

This card will turn over like a hot potato until someone gets burned

[Casey2296]

Sold for 10k less than the recent sale of an Sgc 4 1914 Cracker Jack Joe Jackson.

Just sayin'...

[Peter_Spaeth]

A mere 2.9 million for a Jordan.

https://goldin.co/item/2003-04-upper...JkSW5kZXgiOjF9

[GasHouseGang]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

A mere 2.9 million for a Jordan.

https://goldin.co/item/2003-04-upper...JkSW5kZXgiOjF9

I can’t imagine paying that much for any card, but certainly not a card that is only graded “authentic”. Only the autograph is graded a 10.

[maniac_73]

Originally Posted by ajjohnsonsoxfan

This card will turn over like a hot potato until someone gets burned

Nowhere is the greater fool theory proven more than modern sports cards

[kcohen]

These manufactured rarities constitute for me the sports card industry's version of gambling with their inserts of "pull-cards". Buy a case and hope to pull a winning lottery ticket. This evokes for me the recent NFT craze, the intrinsic allure of which, other than making a score, I don't fully understand.

I have nothing against this. I myself buy an occasional lottery ticket. Each to his own.

[LEHR]

I can think of a lot of cool things I could buy with $80k, and Paul Skenes isn't even on the radar for 1/20th of that.

[3-2-count]

Nothing to add to this thread other than, "congratulations Ryan"! Pure gold....

[Rhotchkiss]

Thanks all. No doubt it’s a super expensive card. But the Skenes is also super expensive at $80k, and I don’t understand the rationale of how a player who has literally accomplished nothing and has a micro-chance of being good enough to be mentioned with Cy Young, can sell for this price in comparison.

[Rich Klein]

Who would not want a card of his girlfriend! She is a 1/1

[kcohen]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Thanks all. No doubt it’s a super expensive card. But the Skenes is also super expensive at $80k, and I don’t understand the rationale of how a player who has literally accomplished nothing and has a micro-chance of being good enough to be mentioned with Cy Young, can sell for this price in comparison.

Rationale? The lure of the unknown is no doubt very powerful. Visions of sugar plum fairies and all that. The book on the aforementioned players has already been written.

BTW, I attended the first MLB games of both McDonald and Stasburg. Well, we know what happened. The moral of the story - as a previous poster opined, sell’em while they’re hot!

[Gorditadogg]

Skenes played in the field between starts at Air Force in 2022, and won the John Olerud award as college's best two-way player.

He was the 17th pitcher to be selected #1 in the MLB draft. Here are the first sixteen:

Clyde, Bannister, Moore, Belcher, Benes, Mcdonald, Taylor, Wilson, Benson, Anderson, Burlington, Hochevar, Strassburg, Cole, Appel, Mize.

How many of them will make the Hall of Fame? How many do you even know their first names?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...ll_draft_picks

I think he will last more than 400 innings, but I agree it's a long shot for him to be an all-time great.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

That list seems incomplete. Ben McDonald was first overall in 1989.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

That list seems incomplete. Ben McDonald was first overall in 1989.

Oops, fixed.

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[Yoda]

One scenario is he wins 30 games in his first full season with an era of 2.2. The card goes bananas, changing hands multiple times and reaches 1M$. The next season he blows out his arm (no Tommy John here) and his card price plummets faster than stocks in the Crash of 1929.

[D. Bergin]

If you can go back far enough into the archives of Net54, I remember an identical thread to this one, relating to Stephen Strasburg and his first major manufactured rarity that sold for some incredible amount back then...but would likely be considered peanuts today for a similar prospect.

Crazy how fast time goes by.

This is a game, just like NFT's, Most types of Crypto, Gambling and Penny Stocks to the people who are willing to shell out money like this.

Of course it's all short term, because long term makes no sense.

He'd have to be "Generational" in all caps, for it to make sense. Not just a multiple Cy Young Award winner, but GENERATIONAL.

Just picking two names off the top of my head...Johan Santana won 2 Cy Youngs by the age of 27...and Bret Saberhagen won 2 Cy Youngs by the age of 25...somebody already mentioned Lincecum.

Not my business though. Somebody's going to make money on this card, somebody's going to lose money on this card, and the wealth will just be redistributed among the economy, and the auction house will get their vig, whether the card loses money or makes money for somebody else.

Does make me wonder...if Clemens (without the PEDs), or Randy Johnson, or Pedro Martinez had ones of ones in their rookie era days...what might they be worth?

[JollyElm]

In the absence of a quick and profitable flip, a single injury will quickly turn a jewel buyer into a fool buyer. And that scenario is exponentially more likely to happen when the player is a pitcher.

[Steve D]

Originally Posted by YankeeCollector

Paul Skenes 1 of 1 Bowman Chrome Superfractor Auto ended tonight in Goldin Auctions at a touch over $80,000. I think it was a good price for the buyer. Investing in Pitchers is risky nowadays but Skenes looks like the real deal.

See the following:

Kerry Wood

Walker Buehler

Steven Strasburg


Steve

[Exhibitman]

With respect players' wartime service, I know a lot of them say that the extra time would not have had a major impact on their careers, but I don't buy that. Any career in any field that is interrupted by years of doing something else entirely causes a lag in training and skill acquisition that has to be made up later.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

With respect players' wartime service, I know a lot of them say that the extra time would not have had a major impact on their careers, but I don't buy that. Any career in any field that is interrupted by years of doing something else entirely causes a lag in training and skill acquisition that has to be made up later.

Maybe I'm wrong but my impression was that guys like DiMaggio and Williams picked right up where they had left off?