2025 HOF -- Early Thoughts

[todeen]

I'm very excited for the 2025 HOF voting. First, Ichiro will be on the ballot. I live in WA, and I was here when he debuted. Sodo Mojo.

But the rest of the ballot will be very intriguing as well! Billy Wagner narrowly missed election this year, so there is a chance we could be talking about a class of 4! Wagner, Ichiro, Sabathia, and maybe Andruw Jones.

In addition, I am very interested to see how voters respond to Felix Hernandez. Here is a comment from Jayson Stark and the changing role of starting pitchers. "Speaking of prodigious peaks, King Félix has a fun, big-peak case himself. Check out his seven outrageously great seasons from 2009-15: 104-65, a Cy Young Award, two other top-two Cy Young finishes and a 136 ERA+. Sadly, he was never the same after that. But he has a certain Johan Santana-ish appeal, except with a longer career. He’s also a litmus test of how we’ll look at modern aces in the future. So it wouldn’t shock me if he got elected at some point." You can find the article here in THE ATHLETIC. It's worth a read to see the wandering thoughts of Stark, Gammons, and Rosenthal about the HOF.

And Rosenthal's comments: "Hernández is an interesting case. From 2006 through ‘15, he won a Cy Young Award and finished in the top eight five other times. His ERA-plus in that span was 27 percent above league average. But he also threw the most innings of any pitcher in the majors, and eventually he wore down, his career ending at 33. Should it be held against him that the Mariners rode him too hard?"

https://theathletic.com/5208807/2024...me-roundtable/

I think with the evolving use of starting pitchers, that Felix Hernandez might get in one day with a veterans committee. He played on some teams that were absolutely horrible and affected his counting stats. We've had this conversation about Hernandez before, but IMO with each decade that passes with fewer workhorse pitchers, Felix Hernandez's peak numbers will stand out even more.

[packs]

I actually think Johan was the litmus test for a pitcher like Felix and the result was a one and done appearance.

His body of work is more impressive than Felix on the surface: Two Cy Youngs and a Triple Crown. But even that wasn't enough to garner 5%.

[todeen]

Comparing them on Baseball Reference, Hernandez has nearly two more seasons of pitching than Johan. Looking only at the W-L records, I don't think we would look at Hernandez as less than Johan if the Mariners weren't so gawd awful horrible. His x2 CY runner-up finishes could have been greatly improved if his teammates could have picked him up.
Johan W-L = 139-78
Felix W-L = 169-136

2009 = 19 W, 5 L, 2.49 ERA, 34 GS, 238 IP (ERA leader and GS leader) 2nd place CY
2014 = 15 W, 6 L, 2.14 ERA, 34 GS, 236 IP (ERA leader and GS leader) 2nd place CY


About his career quality starts: Felix Hernandez has 118 career non-win quality starts – one more than Warren Spahn had in his career. He is 0-42 with a 2.19 ERA in those 118 games started.

Had Felix pitched for a team that wasn't a bottom dweller, we could be talking about him reaching 200 wins. Those Mariners teams were awful, and they affected Felix more negatively than they affected Ichiro.

[packs]

I don't disagree. I'm very interested to see how Felix does. I think Johan had a more HOF ready resume with his ERA titles, CYs and Triple Crown and was very surprised at how little consideration he got.

I'm also interested to see if CC is a first ballot HOFer or not. Those 3,000 K's should get him in, but first try? Not sure.

[G1911]

Wagner is almost a sure thing.

Jones and Beltran likely increase and move closer but miss.

Ichiro makes it, possibly at 100%

Sabathia makes it or makes it the next year.

No one else is a serious candidate.

[commishbob]

Originally Posted by G1911

Wagner is almost a sure thing.

Jones and Beltran likely increase and move closer but miss.

Ichiro makes it, possibly at 100%

Sabathia makes it or makes it the next year.

No one else is a serious candidate.

I agree with each of these.

[gunboat82]

I could see Hernandez (and Santana) getting in on Contemporary Committee votes if they look at advanced stats.

Each had a higher WAR total than Koufax, Lemon, Bender, Bill Foster, Wilhelm, Dean, Pennock, Joss, Chesbro, Goose Gossage, Jack Morris. We can look skeptically at imperfect stats like WAR. But if the point is to measure sustained greatness relative to contemporary peers, some of these pitchers don't have anything on Hernandez or Santana.

[Mike D.]

CC Sabathia will be interesting to see. I'm hearing a lot of people talking about him as a potential 1st ballot inductee.

Yet Andy Pettitte, who's pretty close to Sabathia in terms of career numbers, is lingering in the teens in terms of vote percentage.

I actually think they both belong, but will CC get 75% plus while Pettitte doesn't break 20%? There is the PED thing with Pettitte, but again...that's a big gap.

[packs]

Pettitte will be one of the few pitchers with 100 wins over losses that isn't in the HOF and I think only Clemens joins him in that club.

He would be one of the lowest tiered HOFers in but absent his PED scandal, Pettitte was a beast. Definitely one of those "you had to see him play" guys but nobody in New York ever worried about the game if Andy was pitching.

The guy pitched for 18 years and never had a sub 500 record in a season.