Super high end Mantle cards

[Snapolit1]

It's hard for me to understand how Mantles 60s cards keep steadily appreciating in value. As well documented on the board, even in high grades they are not exactly scarce. And Mantle is not Babe Roth or Michael Jordan, his name is not a source of general cultural conversations these days. (Sure, baseball fans and Yankee fans of a certain age will wax poetic about Mantle, but it's not like he's coming up regularly at cocktail parties or at the beach bar.) I'm sure lots of men grew up like Billy Crystal and he was their idol of idols, but if you were a teen when he retired you are now pushing 70 if not above it. Can't believe a lot of people have been holding out with $400,000 to buy a Mantle card and today's the day they are going to pull the trigger.

Are these buyers just rich dudes trading up to a better Mantle, or are these now just basically investment assets (to parrot PWCC) like a house on the ocean? Just trying to understand. I get the Ruth mystique and even the Ty Cobb and Shoeless Joe endless fascination. And of course the importance of Jackie. Mantle mania has always been a mystery to me.

Why Mantle elevated far over Mays is an entirely different discussion.

[D. Bergin]

#1. New York Yankees lineage

#2. 1952 Topps #311

I think this card casts a shadow on all other Mantle cards, the same way the T206 Honus Wagner, kind of casts a shadow on all of Honus's other cards.

In a perfect world I think Mickey, Mays and Aaron would all exist on a very similar plane in collectors minds. It kind of blows my mind how much Aaron lags behind both Mantle and Mays.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by D. Bergin

#1. New York Yankees lineage

#2. 1952 Topps #311

I think this card casts a shadow on all other Mantle cards, the same way the T206 Honus Wagner, kind of casts a shadow on all of Honus's other cards.

In a perfect world I think Mickey, Mays and Aaron would all exist on a very similar plane in collectors minds. It kind of blows my mind how much Aaron lags behind both Mantle and Mays.

I think part of it was that Aaron was a very low key personality. Mays played with flair and joy -- the Say Hey Kid. The basket catches, the hat flying. Aaron was just lethal and steady.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I think part of it was that Aaron was a very low key personality. Mays played with flair and joy -- the Say Hey Kid. The basket catches, the hat flying. Aaron was just lethal and steady.

Mays also played in the New York / San Francisco markets.

Aaron Milwaukee / Atlanta


One of the things that surprised me just now was looking at their post-season stats. In the few chances Hank Aaron had in the postseason, he absolutely tore it up.

Mays, not so much at all. He actually performed pretty poorly at the plate.

But.......he's got "The Catch", and Aaron doesn't.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Yankees. All the World Series. Switch hitter with unprecedented power. Physique. Overcoming injuries and pain. Folk hero demeanor. And if you look at the metrics and count the insane number of walks, arguably a top ten player. Put it all together and you have a legendary figure.

[jsfriedm]

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

I disagree. Most people buying Mantle now never saw him. Nobody saw Cobb, or Ruth, or Gehrig. I think he's embedded in the consciousness of collectors for good.

[Snapolit1]

Maybe it's just the vagaries of how markets play out and how a hobby develops.

I'm guessing in the world of car collecting there are probably similar things, where the 1967 Camaro is worth like 15 times the 1969 Camaro and other cool cars but it's always been that way in the hobby and hard to explain rationally why it developed that way. Just always been that way.

And, no, I know nothing about cars.....

[Pat R]

Popularity, in just over 30 minutes the thread is closing in on 200 views on a pre-war forum.

[Harliduck]

Originally Posted by Snapolit1

Maybe it's just the vagaries of how markets play out and how a hobby develops.

I'm guessing in the world of car collecting there are probably similar things, where the 1967 Camaro is worth like 15 times the 1969 Camaro and other cool cars but it's always been that way in the hobby and hard to explain rationally why it developed that way. Just always been that way.

And, no, I know nothing about cars.....

I do collect cars (1955-1974) and the car world is changing rapidly. When I was a kid growing up...6 cylinders and 4 doors were junk, even if it was a 55-57 Chevy. The youth coming up was not raised the way I was, and now the availability of the previous "junk" is rapidly growing in value and popularity. A total example of youth coming up questioning why things were they way they were.

I don't know if that translates to cards, probably doesn't...but I was born after Mantle retired and am still obsessed with him and his legacy...

[Harliduck]

Dual post?

[Grigsby]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I disagree. Most people buying Mantle now never saw him. Nobody saw Cobb, or Ruth, or Gehrig. I think he's embedded in the consciousness of collectors for good.

This.

Same concept applies to art collecting, classic cars, comic books etc.

It is what it is.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

I disagree. Most people buying Mantle now never saw him. Nobody saw Cobb, or Ruth, or Gehrig. I think he's embedded in the consciousness of collectors for good.

I don't know what percentage of people buying Mantle today saw him play, but I'll bet it is significantly higher than the percentage of Cobb buyers who saw him play. Let's say, for argument's sake, that it's 30% (as opposed to 0% or 1% for Cobb). As those 30% go, it will likely shift the demand/supply balance for his cards. It doesn't mean they will go to zero or even on par with Mays, but they will at least grow at a slower rate.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I don't know what percentage of people buying Mantle today saw him play, but I'll bet it is significantly higher than the percentage of Cobb buyers who saw him play. Let's say, for argument's sake, that it's 30% (as opposed to 0% or 1% for Cobb). As those 30% go, it will likely shift the demand/supply balance for his cards. It doesn't mean they will go to zero or even on par with Mays, but they will at least grow at a slower rate.

You are assuming your conclusion, that those 30 percent of people are buying Mantle because they saw him play and from that assumption concluding that demand will go down when that percentage drops. I think it won't. The demand for Mantle has steadily increased even though more and more buyers never saw him play. I see no reason that would change as we get farther and farther away from his career. He already has achieved Cobb like status.

[raulus]

Sometimes these things are driven by fundamentals, and sometimes they take on a life of their own, like the Kardashians who are largely famous for being famous. And I suppose sometimes it’s a combo, where it might start with fundamentals, and then takes off due to popularity and resonance in the popular imagination.

Much as it pains me to admit it as a proud Italian, the Mona Lisa is really only popular today because she was the Kardashian of last century. Stolen, widely publicized in an attempt to recover the piece, talked about all over the world, eventually recovered. Without that notoriety, she would have remained an obscure small piece by a master. Still a great work of art, yet nowhere close to the level of value it has today, because today she’s known all over the world by just about everyone.

I would draw parallels to Mantle cards. Definitely a great player and generational talent, but the price of his pieces is so high simply because everyone knows and wants them. The strong premium for his stuff relative to his contemporaries who were just as good (or better) on the field defies logic. But that’s because it’s simply a question of better marketing and popularity. And that all starts with the 311, and further burnished by all of the popularity enhancers mentioned above by others.

There’s certainly room to debate how enduring that popularity will be over the next 50-100 years. But it’s proven remarkably durable so far, and shows no signs of abating anytime soon.

[Kco]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

Except that Ruth, the T206 lineage as a whole and literally 20 other players who no one today saw play have all continued to appreciate. For 95+% of players you're correct, Mantle falls in the other 5% (Mays, Jackie, etc also in that crew)

[Kco]

Originally Posted by jsfriedm

I think the Mantle premium will diminish with time because he, more than others, owes his card values to the nostalgia of those who actually saw him play, but it's a long slow process, and his childhood fans haven't left the scene yet. But pre-pandemic, key early Mantle cards traded at 4x-5x of Mays cards in the same set/grade, and now they are often more like 2x (52 Topps very much excepted). I don't buy cards as investments, but if I did, I wouldn't see Mantles as the best place to put my money for this reason.

Except that Ruth, the T206 lineage as a whole and literally 20 other players who no one today saw play have all continued to appreciate. For 95+% of players you're correct, Mantle falls in the other 5% (Mays, Jackie, etc also in that crew)

[Seven]

I don't see how Mantle prices, go down. Maybe they stagnate, but they pretty much are what they are. He is the main draw of post-war collectors, he will continue to be for as long as the Hobby is around. He's Mickey Mantle, as American as apple pie. He's a transcendent figure in the hobby.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by Seven

I don't see how Mantle prices, go down. Maybe they stagnate, but they pretty much are what they are. He is the main draw of post-war collectors, he will continue to be for as long as the Hobby is around. He's Mickey Mantle, as American as apple pie. He's a transcendent figure in the hobby.

It's been a year, but this one comes to mind:

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=112451

Just to poke the bear a little, what's your best guess on what it would fetch today? Has it just stagnated or gone down?

I realize this is probably the high water mark, but I suspect it also proves the point that it's possible for even the mighty Mantle, including the mythical 311 to lose value. Particularly if you get into a major bidding war when you buy.

Now, if this owner holds for long enough, he'll probably come out ahead, or hopefully at least break even. Probably.

[brunswickreeves]

The gentlemen whom sold his 52 Topps Mick SGC 9.5 for $12.6M via HA last year, which he purchased from Al Rosen, said the tipping point to let go of his card was when his grandkid's friends asked him, 'Who was Mickey Mantle?' He apparently believed the current youth generation wouldn't have the same nostalgic connection as those who grew up idolizing Mick's career and post career redemption, or those who caught the baseball collecting bug in the 80s and 90s, now able to purchase this hobby icon. Will this card stand the test of time and continue to float all boats (Mick's other cards)?

[GeoPoto]

Rachael Robinson died last year.

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[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

Rachael Robinson died last year.

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Not according to WIkipedia.

Rachel Annetta Robinson[1] (née Isum; born July 19, 1922)[1] is an American former professor and registered nurse. She is the widow of professional baseball player Jackie Robinson. After her husband's death, she founded the Jackie Robinson Foundation.

[raulus]

Originally Posted by GeoPoto

Rachael Robinson died last year.

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“The rumors of my demise have been greatly exaggerated.”

[GeoPoto]

I stand corrected. And apologize.

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