Questions About "Modern" Cards

[Hankphenom]

1) Is anyone trying to collect sets of anything "modern," as in post-1980 or so?
2) If we say that cards at the National were 75% modern as opposed to vintage, to pick a number, what are they? Insert cards from the 90s onward, rookie cards of modern and current stars, etc.?
3) Pretty much by definition, it strikes me that anything scarce in the modern category is a result of artificial rarity created by the manufacturers. Is this what all these dealers and flippers are at the National and other shows selling and in search of? Are there any actual collectors of these cards to speak of?
Any other observations re the modern side of the hobby would be helpful for my understanding of it, and welcome. Thank you.

[53toppscollector]

I don't collect modern cards, but there are obviously player collectors out there who legit are trying to collect as many cards of a player as possible. The popular guys like Lebron, Curry, Mahomes, etc, there are people who genuinely want to collect their stuff, especially the rare/auto'ed stuff. Lots of people just treat modern cards as assets to flip short term to recognize a profit. And the hobby needs liquidity from people like that, so I never view it as a bad thing.

This is essentially the Junk Wax 2.0 era now, with regard to base cards

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by 53toppscollector

I don't collect modern cards, but there are obviously player collectors out there who legit are trying to collect as many cards of a player as possible. The popular guys like Lebron, Curry, Mahomes, etc, there are people who genuinely want to collect their stuff, especially the rare/auto'ed stuff. Lots of people just treat modern cards as assets to flip short term to recognize a profit. And the hobby needs liquidity from people like that, so I never view it as a bad thing. This is essentially the Junk Wax 2.0 era now, with regard to base cards

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

[53toppscollector]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

What I mean by liquidity is the consistent flow of cards in the hobby. Without people flipping and selling cards, you'd have a lot less supply on the market, making it tougher to find cards you are looking for.

Base cards are non-serial numbered cards. For example, cards 1-600 in a Topps set of cards. Those cards are not serial numbered, and each card has the same quantity printed, and Topps/Panini have been printing TONs of them, so they are not in any way rare.

Yes, the first junk wax era was the late 80s-early 90s. Topps/Donruss/Fleer/Upper Deck printed an insane amount of product as interest in the hobby ramped up. They printed so many of them that the cards basically lost all their value. A similar thing is happening now with Topps/Panini base sets, where they are printing insane quantities of the base cards, and then adding tons of different inserts/parallels into every set they release, which is diluting the market. Rookies no longer have 1 or 2 cards, they end up with 100+ cards in different colors/sets.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Thanks. I have never thought of anything, short of fraud, as good or bad in the hobby, just trying to understand it. Couple of questions from your answer: please explain how liquidity (meaning cash sloshing around, I assume) benefits the hobby outside of the modern sector--is it that some of that cash will move into other sectors?; what are base cards, and what happened during the first junk wax era, which I take to be the late 80s and 90s? Any other insights will be welcomed.

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

You are asking about scarcity: manufactured vs natural. If you wanted to collect natural scarcity in the modern market you would want to collect SP and SSP. These do not come in parallel form. They are very popular, but they don't seem to command the prices of manufactured scarcity. Even non-rookie SP and SSP are highly collectable for stars.

I'm pretty sure you understand the parallels that are numbered /99, /76, /50, and etc. Today, set collectors have been replaced by "Rainbow" collectors. These collectors want to get all the border combinations for a certain player. Rainbow collectors have two choices - paper vs chrome. Paper rainbows cost less. Chrome rainbows cost more.

I don't collect rainbows because I don't have that kind of money. I prefer to get cards in just a couple parallels. I like Xfractors, and I like the new Mega Box refractors sometimes called Silver Pack. If you are collecting the rainbow, anything /99 or less is desirable. Some collectors I know start at /50 or less for what they collect.

Let's look at 1993 Topps Derek Jeter. This existed before Topps Chrome. However, it's a nice introduction to parallels. You have the base paper RC, and then you have four parallels: Topps Gold, Inaugural Rockies Set, and Inaugural Marlins Set, and Topps Mini.

In 1996, Derek Jeter's rookie year coincided with the release of 1996 Topps Chrome. However, Topps did not release Topps Gold parallels that year. So in 1996 you have his base paper card, his base chrome card, and a Chrome refractor.

By the late 1990s, Topps Chrome began to expand their refractor parallels into Gold and Black. And in 2001, Topps brought back the paper Topps Gold parallel. This coincided with the rookie season of Ichiro and Pujols, and those parallels are expensive. By 2002, Topps had introduced the Xfractor. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Xfractor of Joey Votto is the big ticket item from that year. I wish I had one! And the Bowman Chrome gold signature parallel is another card that brings big bucks. I'm not sure gold signature is still around - I don't collect Bowman prospects.

Bowman is the real set where collectors flip and make money. When people complain about flippers, they make their most money with Bowman First prospect cards. This is where people spend $100k for an unproven prospect.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by todeen

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

Wow, Tim, what a fabulous tutorial, and directly to the heart of my questions. I have to wonder how many of those cards the "Becketteer" kids of the 90s left on the floor as they tore through packs looking to extract the special cards might be worth something today or some day, as it seems as though those sets, deemed worthless at the time due to the assumption that an unlimited number of them would be put in protective holders without so much as being touched by human hands, are and will be increasingly collected up by fans of those generations. Scarcity is scarcity, no matter the reason, and as long as there is demand for those, they will get collected up and become more and more scarce and valuable. I find it so cool to find out that succeeding generations to mine aren't just in it for the money, but are instead true fans of the players, teams, sports, etc., they love, and those with the collecting gene are continuing the traditions of the hobby pretty much unabated and unchanged. What us old farts used to refer to derisively as "shiny stuff" just turns out to be the cards of heroes of the newer generations, not a bit different from the cards of our heroes. Not sure why I'm so surprised by this, but it's great to see. And the assumption seems to be that a substantial percentage of these collectors will at some point move into vintage as well, although I'm not sure why that even has to be part of the equation for the hobby to continue on in great health. That might just be showing a bias on the part of us older guys with vintage collections, and one that turns out to have little basis in fact. I don't know why a kid who grew up in the 90s should care about Mickey Mantle, Carl Hubbell, or Walter Johnson cards. And when they start having the disposable income to dip into the older markets, maybe they will, maybe they won't, time will tell. Anyway, thanks again, Tim, you've really opened my eyes to the intricacies of the modern hobby, and I appreciate it.

[Touch'EmAll]

This morning over coffee I was checking ebay.

My first search - Walter Johnson both PSA & SGC
2nd search - Mathewson PSA & SGC
3rd search - Andrew Abbott "Newly listed" (this kid has game, brought up in June with the Reds, so much fun to follow a rookie pitcher, I am impressed!)
4th search - Derrick Henry

I contacted a seller, we made a deal on a sweet looking Derrick Henry card with a great looking action shot, very nice PSA 10 card.

Collect what you like, pre war, vintage, modern, ultra modern. It's all good. With the modern, there is so much out there, refractors, parallels, serial #, inserts, etc. Honestly, I find it fun to check out the new stuff just as much as the oldies. Plus it's a lot cheaper, haha. Keeps me in the collecting game.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

Wow, Tim, what a fabulous tutorial, and directly to the heart of my questions. I have to wonder how many of those cards the "Becketteer" kids of the 90s left on the floor as they tore through packs looking to extract the special cards might be worth something today or some day, as it seems as though those sets, deemed worthless at the time due to the assumption that an unlimited number of them would be put in protective holders without so much as being touched by human hands, are and will be increasingly collected up by fans of those generations. Scarcity is scarcity, no matter the reason, and as long as there is demand for those, they will get collected up and become more and more scarce and valuable. I find it so cool to find out that succeeding generations to mine aren't just in it for the money, but are instead true fans of the players, teams, sports, etc., they love, and those with the collecting gene are continuing the traditions of the hobby pretty much unabated and unchanged. What us old farts used to refer to derisively as "shiny stuff" just turns out to be the cards of heroes of the newer generations, not a bit different from the cards of our heroes. Not sure why I'm so surprised by this, but it's great to see. And the assumption seems to be that a substantial percentage of these collectors will at some point move into vintage as well, although I'm not sure why that even has to be part of the equation for the hobby to continue on in great health. That might just be showing a bias on the part of us older guys with vintage collections, and one that turns out to have little basis in fact. I don't know why a kid who grew up in the 90s should care about Mickey Mantle, Carl Hubbell, or Walter Johnson cards. And when they start having the disposable income to dip into the older markets, maybe they will, maybe they won't, time will tell. Anyway, thanks again, Tim, you've really opened my eyes to the intricacies of the modern hobby, and I appreciate it.

Hank...

Great topic. I think about the part highlighted in bold all the time. But then I set myself at ease by realizing that our generation never saw Cobb, Lajoie, Ruth, Gehrig, Foxx, Ott, Greenberg or even Joe DiMaggio play. Not to mention the really early guys like Ewing, Ward, Anson, Cy Young, etc. But we still respect and value their cards to the utmost extent. We may have grown up idolizing Mantle, Mays, Aaron, Clemente and Bench, but you naturally branch out as your hobby knowledge evolves.

I think that same thing will occur with future generations of collectors. Perhaps in a different way, but there will always be people out there who value and revere baseball's rich history just like we do (even if the player's image appears on dull paper vs, chrome!)

[BobbyStrawberry]

Originally Posted by todeen

Hi Hank. I don't collect modern sets, but I collect modern singles. In modern, Topps flagship is called "paper" versus Chrome. You have base cards, short prints, super short prints, parallels, inserts, and insert parallels.

You are asking about scarcity: manufactured vs natural. If you wanted to collect natural scarcity in the modern market you would want to collect SP and SSP. These do not come in parallel form. They are very popular, but they don't seem to command the prices of manufactured scarcity. Even non-rookie SP and SSP are highly collectable for stars.

I'm pretty sure you understand the parallels that are numbered /99, /76, /50, and etc. Today, set collectors have been replaced by "Rainbow" collectors. These collectors want to get all the border combinations for a certain player. Rainbow collectors have two choices - paper vs chrome. Paper rainbows cost less. Chrome rainbows cost more.

I don't collect rainbows because I don't have that kind of money. I prefer to get cards in just a couple parallels. I like Xfractors, and I like the new Mega Box refractors sometimes called Silver Pack. If you are collecting the rainbow, anything /99 or less is desirable. Some collectors I know start at /50 or less for what they collect.

Let's look at 1993 Topps Derek Jeter. This existed before Topps Chrome. However, it's a nice introduction to parallels. You have the base paper RC, and then you have four parallels: Topps Gold, Inaugural Rockies Set, and Inaugural Marlins Set, and Topps Mini.

In 1996, Derek Jeter's rookie year coincided with the release of 1996 Topps Chrome. However, Topps did not release Topps Gold parallels that year. So in 1996 you have his base paper card, his base chrome card, and a Chrome refractor.

By the late 1990s, Topps Chrome began to expand their refractor parallels into Gold and Black. And in 2001, Topps brought back the paper Topps Gold parallel. This coincided with the rookie season of Ichiro and Pujols, and those parallels are expensive. By 2002, Topps had introduced the Xfractor. The 2002 Bowman Chrome Xfractor of Joey Votto is the big ticket item from that year. I wish I had one! And the Bowman Chrome gold signature parallel is another card that brings big bucks. I'm not sure gold signature is still around - I don't collect Bowman prospects.

Bowman is the real set where collectors flip and make money. When people complain about flippers, they make their most money with Bowman First prospect cards. This is where people spend $100k for an unproven prospect.

I learned a lot from this post, Tim - thanks

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

I'm on the hunt for various junk wax commons all the time, but for autograph purposes. I don't deal in unsigned anything, but do have a lot of unsigned cards from this era (80's). I trade them to many people I've met online who still hand collate Junk Era sets. I will swap them their needs for my own.

It's really refreshing to see people eagerly collecting this material simply for the fun and memories. You know, growing up in the 80's and collecting modern in that era may not have made most of these then-kids rich, but it means that anybody of that age on any kind of budget can jump back into their youth for next to nothing! It's not completely a bad thing!

As a huge plus, the folks I've met who are into this sort of thing have been by and large very positive, kind and fair traders. Who doesn't need more of that in their lives? It also brings a bit of a chuckle to deal with people who will take the time to describe the slightest of dings in a one cent common and offer to send a photo to ensure I'm OK with the card! Bottom line, junk wax has really become an unexpected positive on this end. Who'da thunk it?
I get to help people complete sets that most of the world has consigned to the dustbins of their lives and I end up with some cards which will later get autographed.

(Hank--probably not what you were after at all, but thought I'd chip in with this, seeing as it does partially incorporate the "modern era" to which you were asking.)

[brass_rat]

Several nights this week I watched the modern folks have trade night at Loews in their big lobby and outside the conference rooms. There were hundreds of people each night, and they were there starting around dinner time until past midnight.

I can't say that I understood exactly what they were doing or looking for, but a few observations:

• It was nice to see the during camaraderie across the group -- no matter what their card motives (collecting vs flipping) -- people of all ages and backgrounds were interacting in a respectful way. Many of them were just sitting around talking and hanging out which was great.
  
• I saw a few vintage cards in the mix... Red Cobb, Aaron, Robinson... Even a couple 52 Mantles just on the table or carpet floor where the younger folks were hanging out.
  
• If only three to five percent of modern folks filter down into vintage in the coming years, I wouldn't be surprised if that's enough to sustain the vintage market.

Also, while modern has manufactured scarcity, the players are relatable and accessible for the kids. I realized how the cards line up with pre-war:
In T206, Piedmont and Sweet Cap are the "base set". American Beauty, Polar Bear, Cycle, etc are the Refractors, and Broad Leaf and Drum are the 1/1 Superfractors.

Steve

[Huck]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

2) If we say that cards at the National were 75% modern as opposed to vintage, to pick a number, what are they? Insert cards from the 90s onward, rookie cards of modern and current stars, etc.?

This morning, I was wondering the same show split modern vs vintage (75/25, 80/20, 50/50)?

[G1911]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

1) Is anyone trying to collect sets of anything "modern," as in post-1980 or so?
2) If we say that cards at the National were 75% modern as opposed to vintage, to pick a number, what are they? Insert cards from the 90s onward, rookie cards of modern and current stars, etc.?
3) Pretty much by definition, it strikes me that anything scarce in the modern category is a result of artificial rarity created by the manufacturers. Is this what all these dealers and flippers are at the National and other shows selling and in search of? Are there any actual collectors of these cards to speak of?
Any other observations re the modern side of the hobby would be helpful for my understanding of it, and welcome. Thank you.

1) Yes, lots of people build sets. There's just also tons of base and so it isn't expensive or a challenge.

3) I mean, this is almost always the case in all of hobby history. Scarcity is a reflection of print run; they didn't make many Drum backs for some reason, they don't make many gold superfractor's. Now they short print the inserts to produce a chase factor, but that's been the case since the early 90's in most sets, and dates back much further (many vintage sets have particular cards within it shorted). People actually collect inserts.

[todeen]

Here's another modern slang term I forgot: color match.

Color match is when the parallel color matches the team jersey colors. It has aesthetic value, and brings additional $$$. It can be any serial number. Here is an example of a color match RC Joey Votto. This is an extreme example, since it is #/25. This is a niche collector, but they exist, usually for team collectors or individual player collectors. Kind of like collectors that go for numbered parallels that are #1, jersey number, or the last serial number exp 99/99.

Then here is an example of a Joey Votto rainbow: Chrome Refractor, Xfractor, Blue Refractor, Copper Refractor, Red Refractor.

Cards not mine.




Sent from my SM-G9900 using Tapatalk

[Hankphenom]

Those are pretty cards! Not as nice as T206s, 33Goudeys, or 55Ts, but what is?

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by todeen

Then here is an example of a Joey Votto rainbow: Chrome Refractor, Xfractor, Blue Refractor, Copper Refractor, Red Refractor.

Tim been collecting vintage "Rainbow" for years
Have a few sets of '55 Armour coin variations
& a few collectors do that w/ exhibits & '41 Goudeys

[notfast]

Don’t forget the PSA 1-10 rainbow.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by notfast

Don’t forget the PSA 1-10 rainbow.

Here is an incomplete example of what you're describing. I think the KGJ run with the half grades is pretty interesting. I'm shocked how much some people are willing to pay for the elusive half grades.

[todeen]

Originally Posted by Jay Wolt

Tim been collecting vintage "Rainbow" for years
Have a few sets of '55 Armour coin variations
& a few collectors do that w/ exhibits & '41 Goudeys

I've seen the Armour coin rainbows before and I think they are really cool! I've also seen the Exhibits come up occasionally with the standard, blue tint, purple tint, and green tint. Is there another color? And I know some of the cards come with different signature lines. As for the 41 Goudey, I'm not sure I've seen a rainbow for them before.

[Jay Wolt]

Originally Posted by todeen

As for the 41 Goudey, I'm not sure I've seen a rainbow for them before.

Tim, Here's the 4 colors via reprints that I saw online
This will give you an idea of them

[Bestdj777]

I have a near complete run of Mickey Mantle cards but recently got into more modern cards. I now have a run of Aaron Judge rookie/pre rookie cards and working on a run of Anthony Volpe rookie/prerookie cards. I generally avoid signed, relic, or other artificially scare cards of them, so mostly just have the junk base cards. And I’ve purposely limited myself to just buying from their rookie year and prior, given the vast number of cards produced each year. Will I ever see a return on my purchases? It’s highly unlikely. But, purchasing modern cards has led to a renewed interest in baseball and allowed me to purchase some cards when I’m pretty much priced out of Mantle. To each his own.

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by Jay Wolt

Tim, Here's the 4 colors via reprints that I saw online
This will give you an idea of them.

Those are cool, not sure I'm seen them before. Seems strange that such an obscure issue would get reprinted, but I guess the originals are crazy rare.

[YazFenway08]

that was a great summary tim

as a hopeless set collector…i love the parallel chase for completeness in any given year. not THAT expensive, but not THAT easy, either. i do it with flagship and chrome…and try to add the SPs. i binder them up and i think all the parallels look awesome all together. for the 93s i have the base, the two inaugural, the gold and the micro…the ‘84s have the base, tiffany and nestle…with the o-pee-chee in the back since it wasn’t a one for one.

i love all eras of the game and of the cards…some months i do more modern, some more vintage. keeps it all fresh and fun

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by YazFenway08

that was a great summary tim. as a hopeless set collector…i love the parallel chase for completeness in any given year. not THAT expensive, but not THAT easy, either. i do it with flagship and chrome…and try to add the SPs. i binder them up and i think all the parallels look awesome all together. for the 93s i have the base, the two inaugural, the gold and the micro…the ‘84s have the base, tiffany and nestle…with the o-pee-chee in the back since it wasn’t a one for one. i love all eras of the game and of the cards…some months i do more modern, some more vintage. keeps it all fresh and fun

I love this post!

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

I have a huge soft spot for the Nestles. It has to be residual carryover from the 80s craze for them!

[Leon]

Originally Posted by Hankphenom

I love this post!

+1. a collector.

From my personal experiences, which are somewhat limited, it seems the younger generation is all about gambling on the next prospect. There just aren't that many young, true collectors, it seems. There's nothing wrong with it, it's just diffferent.

and a card...

[BillyCoxDodgers3B]

Originally Posted by Leon

+1. a collector.

From my personal experiences, which are somewhat limited, it seems the younger generation is all about gambling on the next prospect. There just aren't that many young, true collectors, it seems. There's nothing wrong with it, it's just diffferent.

and a card...

...and those of us who've already dealt with people trying to get us to buy 100 Monty Fariss RCs in 1989 to put our future kids through college have been through this rigmarole a time or three. Old news to us.

[packs]

Is there a huge difference between gambling on prospects and all the threads about which pre-war cards to invest in that get posted all the time?

[todeen]

Originally Posted by YazFenway08

that was a great summary tim

as a hopeless set collector…i love the parallel chase for completeness in any given year. not THAT expensive, but not THAT easy, either. i do it with flagship and chrome…and try to add the SPs. i binder them up and i think all the parallels look awesome all together. for the 93s i have the base, the two inaugural, the gold and the micro…the ‘84s have the base, tiffany and nestle…with the o-pee-chee in the back since it wasn’t a one for one.

i love all eras of the game and of the cards…some months i do more modern, some more vintage. keeps it all fresh and fun

The modern collectors would use the fire emoji for this. I love your 1993 Topps binder! This was the first set I ever tried completing. I had no clue about the inaugural sets until decades later.

[jchcollins]

I can’t keep up with modern on the whole these days, but I very much appreciate the fact that healthy new collectors means a thriving hobby - and more shops, more shows, more cash flow. With all those things of course, more vintage comes out as available too.

I will occasionally buy a box of something new like Topps flagship or Heritage, but I’m not spending the $ to do all the parallels, numbered cards, SP’s, SSP’s, and autos and relics. In an age when many new to the hobby actually throw base cards in the trash - I like them. Base cards were mostly all we knew when I started in the height of the junk wax days. One of my favorite modern cards is the ‘21 Heritage Shohei Ohtani (‘72 Topps design). It’s not worth much, but I just like the design and the picture. Base cards can be a cheap way to still have fun with the hobby and keep up with current MLB.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Hankphenom]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I can’t keep up with modern on the whole these days, but I very much appreciate the fact that healthy new collectors means a thriving hobby - and more shops, more shows, more cash flow. With all those things of course, more vintage comes out as available too. I will occasionally buy a box of something new like Topps flagship or Heritage, but I’m not spending the $ to do all the parallels, numbered cards, SP’s, SSP’s, and autos and relics. In an age when many new to the hobby actually throw base cards in the trash - I like them. Base cards were mostly all we knew when I started in the height of the junk wax days. One of my favorite modern cards is the ‘21 Heritage Shohei Ohtani (‘72 Topps design). It’s not worth much, but I just like the design and the picture. Base cards can be a cheap way to still have fun with the hobby and keep up with current MLB. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

There might turn out to be an interesting parallel between the "base cards" of my youth (50s and 60s Topps, etc.) and the base cards of the "junk wax" era
whereby the former were rendered scarce by bike spokes, flipping, basement floods, moms looking to clean out old bedrooms, etc., and the latter being left on the floor or discarded into the trash after the packs were opened and the search for chase cards completed. And maybe that is still going on in different forms of disparagement of more modern base cards that would lead people to toss them when going to college or into the Army, getting married and moving into small starter apartments, and the like. The perception of lack of future value, after all, is what has created scarcity for every one of the cards and other memorabilia that was issued in the millions a hundred or more years ago and now go for millions each in some cases. Not saying there is any kind of comparability between them, but it's interesting to contemplate the potential similarities.

[Seven]

Just chiming in here.

Every so often I'll buy something small from one of the modern sets. I feel absolutely overwhelmed with all the products though. So many different subsets, parallels, refactors, hell there's apparently something called a "tacofractor" with pictures of tacos on the card (I wish I was joking)

It's gotten too complicated, the market seems too over saturated, I'd argue it's worse than the junk wax era. One thing that I love about vintage, is that there were a couple of "main" sets and then a few regional sets sprinkled in.