Let's see how far THIS one has fallen! 1958 Topps Jim Brown! Ends tonight!

[bobbyw8469]

REA has a 1958 Topps Jim Brown rookie SGC 8.5. It sold for $20k with PWCC on 4/23/20. Then a year later with the pandemic in full swing it sold for $108k with REA a year later. Now it is back at REA 2 years later and "only" $36k. Exact same card, exact same serial number, all 3 transactions. I'm also watching the 1955 Koufax PSA 9 like someone earlier suggested.

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=138646

[mrreality68]

Wow that is a hell of a spike and a potential hell of a drop.

[Republicaninmass]

Certainly makes the mind wander....

[Rhotchkiss]

Several thoughts here.

First, I think that $108k sale was a fluke/aberration. A very comparable SGC 8.5 sold in Goldin in October of 2021 for $47,970. The current REA card is at $43,200 w/ BP and we still have extended bidding tonight. My gut is this is not a "market" thing, but rather someone just totally overpaid in 2021 and they will take a bath here.

Meanwhile (second), PSA 8.5's sold for $360k and $288k in 2022 -- shattering the paltry $108k realized on the SGC 8.5 in REA in 2021. I take these PSA 2022 comps to mean (i) the card was still going up in 2022 vs 2021, and thus, the SGC 8.5 Goldin sale in late 2021 should have beat or been close to the REA sale, if the REA sale was not a fluke, and (ii) PSA prices for a commodity card like this destroy SGC prices (PSA 8's have sold between mid $20k's and $45k since mid 2021).

Third, if we throw out the $108k sale as a fluke, and we look at the Goldin sale and the $19.6k sale by PWCC in 2020, this card has done very well over the last 3 years -- its more than doubled in value, with time to go.

This is a "commodity" card, which to me means its highly and widely desirable, fairly common, and generally liquid. I do believe that commodity cards are down off their highs of a year ago (or whenever they peaked). Some commodity cards more than other (see MJ rookies). Those who bought at the heights are sitting on loses for sure, some large and some less so. But anyone who bought these cards before 2021 are sitting on large gains. I expect most of those who bought the good stuff at the height of things will do just fine if they can hold the cards for a while. As an aside, to me, commodity cards can be from 1910 --a T206 red cobb and 33 Goudey Ruth are 1000% commodity cards that are off their highs at the peak. So I am, not just speaking in regards to "modern stuff".

Last thought -- I think the Koufax rookie is different because it sits in a PSA 9 flip, making it less of a commodity and more of a major item. But we all expect those to be down compared to last sales. However, lets talk about the 1925 Gehrig PSA 4.5 (MAJOR card) that sold in Lelands last night for just under $400k. An apparently great price until you compare it to the PSA 5 that sold in Memory Lane for over $1mm a year ago. Is this the signs of a weakened market, is Memory Lane a much better AH for that card than Lelands, is .5 grade in an older flip really worth 2.5x?

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

REA has a 1958 Topps Jim Brown rookie SGC 8.5. It sold for $20k with PWCC on 4/23/20. Then a year later with the pandemic in full swing it sold for $108k with REA a year later. Now it is back at REA 2 years later and "only" $36k. Exact same card, exact same serial number, all 3 transactions. I'm also watching the 1955 Koufax PSA 9 like someone earlier suggested.

https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=138646

Who bought it at $180k last year? Was it an investor group that had already purchased a bunch of lower-graded examples with the goal of the 8.5 sales being used as a proxy for a lifting tide raises all ships theory? Makes one wonder... did collectors ever buy these bigger cards at record prices? Or where they are being pushed for the greater good, greater good for the groups since already purchased up a large swap of lower-graded examples. A fool and his money are often soon parted.

[Snapolit1]

The Brown card is clearly the hot shit, broadly coveted vintage (I guess) era football card. It is a stunning image. Ran up stupid like a lot of other things.

[mrreality68]

Definitely a great commodity card and for football collectors very iconic. Still amazed by the prices but again there were many cards that rode that wave to some degree or another.
Look at the Rookie Jordan 10 from a 20k card up to $700k plus to 150k in a relatively short time as these others

[raulus]

Might be a little early to declare that someone is taking a bath here. A lot of auctions for pieces like this seem to see prices double (or more) during extended bidding.

Naturally, now that I’ve proffered such a prognostication, no one will bid on it again between now and closing.

[Rhotchkiss]

I think the card will get some more bids, but in relation to the $108k…. I am calling Splish Splash (but it def may beat the Goldin comp from October 2021)

[jethrod3]

Originally Posted by bobbyw8469

REA has a 1958 Topps Jim Brown rookie SGC 8.5. It sold for $20k with PWCC on 4/23/20. Then a year later with the pandemic in full swing it sold for $108k with REA a year later. Now it is back at REA 2 years later and "only" $36k.
https://bid.robertedwardauctions.com...?itemid=138646

Now if only the 1958 Topps Brown cards in VG-EX or EX conditions would drop a little more, I might have a good chance at purchasing one!!