Vintage / Modern

[LincolnVT]

I got an interesting mass email from a major auction house yesterday discussing the recent poor performance of modern cards and the steady reliability and value retention of vintage cards. I thought it was strange for an auction house to all but write off a segment of the hobby, but they did raise some quality points. Do pre-war and vintage collectors think that those who have been spending big bucks on modern pieces will throw in the towel and turn to vintage? If this becomes a trend will we see even more competition for the stuff that we like? I know that some people enjoy vintage and modern, but we may soon see some trying to cut modern losses and begin to target vintage which could drive the good stuff up even higher. 🤔

Ethan

[JustinD]

I would doubt it.

The modern market is always first to be affected by market changes as it is filled with newbie investors that are quick to bail. I would say most of the modern drop is due to post-pandemic expected declines as the get rich quick flipping crowd slowly fades. I don't care what anyone says, current prices on everything are likely to slow or drop to pre 20' prices throughout next year. The pricing on modern was a joke.

[raulus]

Not sure I've ever understood the modern collector, particularly if they're paying astronomical sums for something that doesn't seem all that valuable, like paying 6 figures for pieces from no-name prospects who haven't ever hit above .200 in the minors.

I would question whether modern collectors are really all that interested in vintage. Seems like it's a completely different market, and lacks the sort of action and pizzazz that they want out of their collecting experience.

[jsfriedm]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

I got an interesting mass email from a major auction house yesterday discussing the recent poor performance of modern cards and the steady reliability and value retention of vintage cards. I thought it was strange for an auction house to all but write off a segment of the hobby, but they did raise some quality points. Do pre-war and vintage collectors think that those who have been spending big bucks on modern pieces will throw in the towel and turn to vintage? If this becomes a trend will we see even more competition for the stuff that we like? I know that some people enjoy vintage and modern, but we may soon see some trying to cut modern losses and begin to target vintage which could drive the good stuff up even higher. 🤔

Ethan

What would be the reasoning? Is it 1)people wanted to invest their money in "alternative assets," decided that modern cards are not safe enough, but think that vintage cards are; 2)people who love collecting sports cards need to collect something, and decide to shift their collecting focus from modern to vintage; or 3)people who love watching sports and getting cards of the players they watch suddenly decide to learn about Wagner and Mathewson? I'm not sure I find any of those narratives terribly believable, but perhaps #1 and #2 are more believable than #3.

[packs]

I would doubt it. You have to be (no pun intended) invested in pre-war to ever collect it. So much time needs to be invested in learning sets, variations, player histories, and all the nitty gritty in between. I don’t think modern collectors are interested in anything but name and dollar amount. They wouldn’t have the discipline to delve into why something like a T207 of Mike Donlin, someone hardly anyone has ever heard of, is an expensive card. And I doubt they’d be interested in buying one.

[LincolnVT]

Originally Posted by packs

I would doubt it. You have to be (no pun intended) invested in pre-war to ever collect it. So much time needs to be invested in learning sets, variations, player histories, and all the nitty gritty in between. I don’t think modern collectors are interested in anything but name and dollar amount. They wouldn’t have the discipline to delve into why something like a T207 of Mike Donlin, someone hardly anyone has ever heard of, is an expensive card. And I doubt they’d be interested in buying one.

Yeah, but some of these folks just look at auction results to gauge there investments. Now days this is an option w/o the need to be knowledgeable or invested.

[packs]

True for mainstream I think. It doesn’t take a lot of knowledge to spot a good buy like a Cobb T206. But unless you’re one of us it will be very difficult to buy low and sell high which is the motivation for investments. There are many cards of guys like Ten Million that a casual observer will probably overlook if they saw it somewhere.

Then again I could be wrong too. Modern is all about the variations but they’re usually numbered and that makes it easier to know what’s rare.

[oldjudge]

I think modern collectors who become disenchanted with their cards will just abandon card collecting.I doubt that many/any will transition to vintage.

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by LincolnVT

I got an interesting mass email from a major auction house yesterday discussing the recent poor performance of modern cards and the steady reliability and value retention of vintage cards. I thought it was strange for an auction house to all but write off a segment of the hobby, but they did raise some quality points. Do pre-war and vintage collectors think that those who have been spending big bucks on modern pieces will throw in the towel and turn to vintage? If this becomes a trend will we see even more competition for the stuff that we like? I know that some people enjoy vintage and modern, but we may soon see some trying to cut modern losses and begin to target vintage which could drive the good stuff up even higher. 🤔

Ethan

Ethan can you share the email with us?

I started out as a "modern" collector in 1965. When my son started collecting in 1995 he collected "modern" cards and I started collecting again with him. Throughout the late 90's and early 2000's I was collecting the shiny stuff, before I decided to go back and work on filling out some of my old sets from the 60's.

I think a lot of vintage collectors - maybe most of them - started out as "modern" collectors. And because of that I don't think it is a good sign at all that modern cards are down, because that means we are losing new collectors.

[Rhotchkiss]

Its from Lelands. It is really an add for consignments. Interesting method and I am not sure what it says about the AH - are THEY abandoning seeking modern consignments and/or shifting their business? Anyway, here is the body of the email:

Volatility in Modern Cards Market



Modern cards have had an impressive run over the last few years. Today, there is increased concern about volatility and devaluation in this sector of the market. Risk assets - like growth stocks, meme stocks, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies - are experiencing similar fluctuations and loss of value in the current environment.



Since the start of this amazing run up in value of modern cards, we have hypothesized that investments in this category will be subject to the same investment risk as the other assets noted above, and we are seeing the beginning of that playing out right now.



We still believe that modern cards are an excellent long-term investment, but we think it may be awhile before "flipping" cards will be a good financial strategy again.



Memorabilia and Vintage Holding Firm



As you probably know, Lelands has been a major participant in modern card auctions, with many lots fetching world record prices. But throughout this run up in modern cards, we have not taken our eye off our favorite two categories - sports memorabilia and vintage cards.



These sectors of the market are holding their own in this environment. We believe that this decoupling of value from modern cards is due to the type of buyer in these markets. Sports memorabilia and vintage card buyers tend to be collectors who "love the stuff" rather than see their purchases as a "flipping" opportunity.



Our data from decades of auctions reveal that these two collector-focused areas of the hobby are also excellent long-term investments, characterized by steady returns with much less volatility. Our experts believe that the double bottom line of 1) the enjoyment that comes from collecting, and 2) the steady increases in memorabilia and vintage value, are a combination that should be highly attractive to the sports collector.



The Leaders in Memorabilia and Vintage



While auction houses may come and go, or expand and contract, Lelands has been a constant in the hobby. Our business is built upon the solid foundation of a passion for owning history in the sports we follow.



We collect because we respect the stuff, we buy and sell because we are fascinated by the historical impact of the pieces, and we have become the hobby's foremost experts because we are immersed in the joy of collecting, not the transactional nature of the sale.



We invite you to call upon us to evaluate your sports memorabilia and cards. Similarly, our next Classic Auction is coming very soon, with plenty of memorabilia, vintage, and modern cards for you to bid on!



Our relationships with our clients is the most rewarding part of our job, and if you choose to work with us, we trust you will see that we value personal relationships, will provide you with expert insights, and share our deep understanding of what is happening in the hobby marketplace.





Sincerely,



The Originals



Image removed - click Show Images to View
Image removed - click Show Images to View
Generous Cash Advances and Competitive Rates Available!

Consignments & Purchases
Generous Cash Advances
Highly Competitive Rates


National Media Coverage
Powerful Online Marketing
Hobby-Best Ads & Catalog

[Gorditadogg]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Its from Lelands. It is really an add for consignments. Interesting method and I am not sure what it says about the AH - are THEY abandoning seeking modern consignments and/or shifting their business? Anyway, here is the body of the email:



Volatility in Modern Cards Market







Modern cards have had an impressive run over the last few years. Today, there is increased concern about volatility and devaluation in this sector of the market. Risk assets - like growth stocks, meme stocks, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies - are experiencing similar fluctuations and loss of value in the current environment.







Since the start of this amazing run up in value of modern cards, we have hypothesized that investments in this category will be subject to the same investment risk as the other assets noted above, and we are seeing the beginning of that playing out right now.







We still believe that modern cards are an excellent long-term investment, but we think it may be awhile before "flipping" cards will be a good financial strategy again.







Memorabilia and Vintage Holding Firm







As you probably know, Lelands has been a major participant in modern card auctions, with many lots fetching world record prices. But throughout this run up in modern cards, we have not taken our eye off our favorite two categories - sports memorabilia and vintage cards.







These sectors of the market are holding their own in this environment. We believe that this decoupling of value from modern cards is due to the type of buyer in these markets. Sports memorabilia and vintage card buyers tend to be collectors who "love the stuff" rather than see their purchases as a "flipping" opportunity.







Our data from decades of auctions reveal that these two collector-focused areas of the hobby are also excellent long-term investments, characterized by steady returns with much less volatility. Our experts believe that the double bottom line of 1) the enjoyment that comes from collecting, and 2) the steady increases in memorabilia and vintage value, are a combination that should be highly attractive to the sports collector.







The Leaders in Memorabilia and Vintage







While auction houses may come and go, or expand and contract, Lelands has been a constant in the hobby. Our business is built upon the solid foundation of a passion for owning history in the sports we follow.







We collect because we respect the stuff, we buy and sell because we are fascinated by the historical impact of the pieces, and we have become the hobby's foremost experts because we are immersed in the joy of collecting, not the transactional nature of the sale.







We invite you to call upon us to evaluate your sports memorabilia and cards. Similarly, our next Classic Auction is coming very soon, with plenty of memorabilia, vintage, and modern cards for you to bid on!







Our relationships with our clients is the most rewarding part of our job, and if you choose to work with us, we trust you will see that we value personal relationships, will provide you with expert insights, and share our deep understanding of what is happening in the hobby marketplace.











Sincerely,







The Originals







Image removed - click Show Images to View

Image removed - click Show Images to View

Generous Cash Advances and Competitive Rates Available!



Consignments & Purchases

Generous Cash Advances

Highly Competitive Rates





National Media Coverage

Powerful Online Marketing

Hobby-Best Ads & Catalog

Thanks


Sent from my SM-S906U using Tapatalk

[Snowman]

Collectors are definitely migrating over to vintage from modern. Almost all of us started in modern at one point in time or another. For me, it started as a kid when I would ride my bike to the local card shop to buy 80s junk wax packs. I would always gawk at the Mantle, Mays, and Hank Aaron cards behind the glass, vowing to one day own some of them. I saved up my money from mowing lawns and picked up a 1960 Topps All-Star Hank Aaron and a 1962 Topps Mickey Mantle as my foray into vintage.

Nowadays, kids like the shiny stuff just like many of us liked opening packs as kids too. But they're all tuning in to social media and listening to influencers these days, and all of those channels are singing the praises of the vintage market. As they watch their NFT digital "cards" and fake jersey patch sticker autos of Gavin Lux (numbered to /99 !!!) plummet in value, they hear about the Wagner, Mantles, Ruths, Cobbs, and Jackies all setting new records on a monthly basis. It piques their interest. I've seen quite a few modern collectors migrating over into vintage, dipping their toes. They're coming. Certainly not all of them, but even if it's just 1 or 2% of them, that's enough to continue to cause upward pressure on pricing.

I don't see high-end vintage prices dropping any time soon.

[skelly423]

I think almost every collector starts as a modern collector, looking for cards of their favorite players. Kids collecting modern today are no different than I was collecting "modern" cards in the mid 90s, or others on the board collecting modern cards in the 1970s, 1950... Almost nobody here started out collecting t206s, it was a migration as we discovered the depths of the hobby, and figured out what really appealed to each of us.

The natural progression for nearly everyone in the hobby is to start modern and shift to vintage; it has been happening for generations, and will continue for generations more.

[Exhibitman]

Originally Posted by Rhotchkiss

Its from Lelands. It is really an add for consignments. Interesting method and I am not sure what it says about the AH - are THEY abandoning seeking modern consignments and/or shifting their business? Anyway, here is the body of the email:

Volatility in Modern Cards Market



Modern cards have had an impressive run over the last few years. Today, there is increased concern about volatility and devaluation in this sector of the market. Risk assets - like growth stocks, meme stocks, NFTs, and cryptocurrencies - are experiencing similar fluctuations and loss of value in the current environment.



Since the start of this amazing run up in value of modern cards, we have hypothesized that investments in this category will be subject to the same investment risk as the other assets noted above, and we are seeing the beginning of that playing out right now.



We still believe that modern cards are an excellent long-term investment, but we think it may be awhile before "flipping" cards will be a good financial strategy again.



Memorabilia and Vintage Holding Firm



As you probably know, Lelands has been a major participant in modern card auctions, with many lots fetching world record prices. But throughout this run up in modern cards, we have not taken our eye off our favorite two categories - sports memorabilia and vintage cards.



These sectors of the market are holding their own in this environment. We believe that this decoupling of value from modern cards is due to the type of buyer in these markets. Sports memorabilia and vintage card buyers tend to be collectors who "love the stuff" rather than see their purchases as a "flipping" opportunity.



Our data from decades of auctions reveal that these two collector-focused areas of the hobby are also excellent long-term investments, characterized by steady returns with much less volatility. Our experts believe that the double bottom line of 1) the enjoyment that comes from collecting, and 2) the steady increases in memorabilia and vintage value, are a combination that should be highly attractive to the sports collector.



The Leaders in Memorabilia and Vintage



While auction houses may come and go, or expand and contract, Lelands has been a constant in the hobby. Our business is built upon the solid foundation of a passion for owning history in the sports we follow.



We collect because we respect the stuff, we buy and sell because we are fascinated by the historical impact of the pieces, and we have become the hobby's foremost experts because we are immersed in the joy of collecting, not the transactional nature of the sale.



We invite you to call upon us to evaluate your sports memorabilia and cards. Similarly, our next Classic Auction is coming very soon, with plenty of memorabilia, vintage, and modern cards for you to bid on!



Our relationships with our clients is the most rewarding part of our job, and if you choose to work with us, we trust you will see that we value personal relationships, will provide you with expert insights, and share our deep understanding of what is happening in the hobby marketplace.





Sincerely,



The Originals



Image removed - click Show Images to View
Image removed - click Show Images to View
Generous Cash Advances and Competitive Rates Available!

Consignments & Purchases
Generous Cash Advances
Highly Competitive Rates


National Media Coverage
Powerful Online Marketing
Hobby-Best Ads & Catalog

Cutting thru the manure, it says this:

Modern is a bunch of jagoffs who are just in it to flip it and while we've done just great playing along, we were just fooling. Really, we love memorabilia and vintage cards, really, we do. So, now that it is shitting the bed bigtime, we will be dropping modern like a used sorority girl and going back to vintage cards and memorabilia, where we are still relevant. Really, we are, we're not kidding. We are really good at this stuff. We know all sorts of investy words like risk and strategy and volatile and returns and sectors and we can use them in sentences. Just like extant and verso, which we promise to use in every listing for your cards and memorabilia. Please be our friends again....

[perezfan]

Adam, that was one of the finest posts extant. Excellent summation.

Lelands has really taken a dive in the last couple of years. I suppose it's good that they are re-focusing on vintage cards and memorabilia. Hopefully they can get back to the status they enjoyed when Josh (RIP) was still around.

[LincolnVT]

I’ll try to find the email…I think it was from Leland’s…someone else here must have it as well.

I collected modern in the late 80s and evolved to vintage and then to pre-war which took a pile of time to become knowledgeable of…I would expect that some of the modern folks will soon take the same path. I remember thinking that the only cards out there were listed in the Beckett price guide.

[JollyElm]

701. Contemporary Insanity
The disbelief over seeing the stunning king’s ransoms being paid for some modern day cards.

[Johnny630]

Are they Concerned ? I would say yes.

[Johnny630]

Are they Concerned? I would say yes. Big Money Investors may want safety to say 4%-%5 percent. They can now unlike in the past 15 years get this in US Treasuries or Bonds. The card market let's face it, it's inflated. I'm just saying other avenues look more attractive to me than investing in Cards, Modern or Vintage.

[mrreality68]

I do it for the pleasure and the long term investment of it.
It is just a more enjoyable part of my overall portfolio ring diversified.
Some people invest in stocks, mutual funds, 401k, perhaps real estate, cards whatever,
I have a percentage of my budget and portfolio dedicated to cards.

[theshowandme]

I’m almost 30 and grew up collecting cards from 1998-2007ish.

When I left for the army in 2011 all my cards were sold.

I was brought back in during 2019/2020 and an incredible amount had changed in the modern landscape. I bought up a lot of Soto and other stars. I have also been buying an incredible amount of vintage and have found myself dipping into the pre-war cards. I think I have found my niche here and laugh at what I was doing in 2019/2020.

I find myself more of a collector of vintage/pre-war and an opportunist with modern to help fuel my collecting. Nothing wrong with that.