What explains this?

[joshleon]

Last night a well known ebay consignor and seller of set breaks had a 72 topps set ending. The Bench card was self described as "NR MT OR BETTER" by the seller (and to this seller's credit, he is usually conservative in self-grades). The card sold for 490.

Now, you can find slabbed PSA 8s of this card for over 100$ less. What explains this phenomenon? I personally believe, just as people buy clearly fake cards on the off chance 1/100 is legit, they are buying these in hopes that it grades a 10? I don't know how you see a "10" from an ebay scan.

That's all I can think of but would love to hear thoughts.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by joshleon

Last night a well known ebay consignor and seller of set breaks had a 72 topps set ending. The Bench card was self described as "NR MT OR BETTER" by the seller (and to this seller's credit, he is usually conservative in self-grades). The card sold for 490.

Now, you can find slabbed PSA 8s of this card for over 100$ less. What explains this phenomenon? I personally believe, just as people buy clearly fake cards on the off chance 1/100 is legit, they are buying these in hopes that it grades a 10? I don't know how you see a "10" from an ebay scan.

That's all I can think of but would love to hear thoughts.

On any given day the exact same card can grade anywhere from a 8 to a 10.
There are several reasons why one seller will get more than others would selling the exact same card.

[nolemmings]

Originally Posted by joshleon

Last night a well known ebay consignor and seller of set breaks had a 72 topps set ending. The Bench card was self described as "NR MT OR BETTER" by the seller (and to this seller's credit, he is usually conservative in self-grades). The card sold for 490.

Now, you can find slabbed PSA 8s of this card for over 100$ less. What explains this phenomenon? I personally believe, just as people buy clearly fake cards on the off chance 1/100 is legit, they are buying these in hopes that it grades a 10? I don't know how you see a "10" from an ebay scan.

That's all I can think of but would love to hear thoughts.

Been going on awhile now--note my reference to a '66 common that sold raw for $115, about twice the price of a PSA 9 Mint at the time.

https://www.net54baseball.com/showth...ighlight=frank

[Kutcher55]

I think the OP’s rationale is correct. It’s like a lottery ticket or a calculated gamble and in the case of the 72 Bench a bad one. It’s a beautiful card but has a slight Diamond tilt and a small ink mark near his name. Unlikely to grade better than an 8.

[BobC]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I think the OP’s rationale is correct. It’s like a lottery ticket or a calculated gamble and in the case of the 72 Bench a bad one. It’s a beautiful card but has a slight Diamond tilt and a small ink mark near his name. Unlikely to grade better than an 8.

Actually makes a lot of sense when you compare this to the kind of odds people that buy Breaks face that are looking for those high dollar hits. In this case, the buyer knows exactly what card/player they're getting, and they can at least see a scan of the card's condition so they know pretty well up front if there is a decent chance the card can get the grade they're hoping for. Breaks are simply PDBL (Pure Dumb Blind Luck).

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by BobC

Actually makes a lot of sense when you compare this to the kind of odds people that buy Breaks face that are looking for those high dollar hits. In this case, the buyer knows exactly what card/player they're getting, and they can at least see a scan of the card's condition so they know pretty well up front if there is a decent chance the card can get the grade they're hoping for. Breaks are simply PDBL (Pure Dumb Blind Luck).

Good point. I think people buying a break can at least get a solid # on their expected value. If you buy ten spots in a break you can add the value of the entire set and what your EV is (hint: it's always negative if the seller knows what they're doing).

I would argue the EV on hoping for a PSA10 is somewhat less quantifiable. There are qualities about the cards you can't identify. Also, you cannot get inside the black box of grading (difference between 8/9/10) that is PSA/SGC.


And this partly explains the explosion in prices if you ask me. What do people do when they try to decide how much to bid? They look at comps. Comps of people basically "irrationally betting" pushes them up even higher. Exact definition of a bubble.

TLDR: It just seems nuts.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by Kutcher55

I think the OP’s rationale is correct. It’s like a lottery ticket or a calculated gamble and in the case of the 72 Bench a bad one. It’s a beautiful card but has a slight Diamond tilt and a small ink mark near his name. Unlikely to grade better than an 8.

I noticed the same defects! The ink mark for sure makes this 8 at best. SMH

[GasHouseGang]

Here are snips of the card in question that sold for $490 raw. If you took this card and then paid the $100 grading fee and got a PSA 9, I guess you're still ahead. But we all know that's a gamble.

[chalupacollects]

Originally Posted by GasHouseGang

Here are snips of the card in question that sold for $490 raw. If you took this card and then paid the $100 grading fee and got a PSA 9, I guess you're still ahead. But we all know that's a gamble.

is it me or is the card blurry? If blurry no shot at a ten...

[nolemmings]

I agree with most of what has been said, but I still fail to understand how this seller's ungraded cards from the 1960s, beautiful as they may appear, go for more than 8s on a regular basis and sometimes 9s. That is, unless the buyers expect the value of those 8's and 9s to increase generally, so that even if they submit and it comes back lower the cards still will appreciate.

For me, I was trying to assemble some nice raw sets from the 60's in the solid nm or better range. A slabbed set would take up far too much space and is cumbersome to store and/or enjoy, plus I hate the registry mentality. That being said, I often found it better to just pay for a nice 7 or 8 slabbed and crack it open than to engage in this insanity. Less worry about a hard to see wrinkle or surface flaw, although GM's scans are high quality.

[joshleon]

Originally Posted by nolemmings

I agree with most of what has been said, but I still fail to understand how this seller's ungraded cards from the 1960s, beautiful as they may appear, go for more than 8s on a regular basis and sometimes 9s. That is, unless the buyers expect the value of those 8's and 9s to increase generally, so that even if they submit and it comes back lower the cards still will appreciate.

That makes zero sense though...why not just buy a slabbed card? Or are you saying that if they pay more than the slabbed 8, they have a shot at a ten and don't worry about paying too much because at least they got a "shot" at a ten?

And yes, his scans are A+