How will the impending lockout effect The Hobby?

[Seven]

With Jeff Passan, reporting that neither side of the table is even close to having meaningful conversations, let alone an agreement, one has to think that should we lockout, the Hobby might be effected in a negative way.

The last time a lockout occurred, the Hobby suffered deeply. Assuming one happens again I do not think the dropoff will be as significant, as COVID more or less caused all collecting to take on a life of its own. I think modern takes most of the brunt, but I do think Vintage sees a small pullback should any sort of delay takes place. Which I think is possible. If spring training is delayed than that will be the real indicator.

[Carter08]

Gut feeling is I’m not seeing how it would help in any way but also don’t think it will affect much. Interest in Cy, Ty, Ruth, Aaron, etc seems almost completely untethered to today’s game.

[Wanaselja]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Gut feeling is I’m not seeing how it would help in any way but also don’t think it will affect much. Interest in Cy, Ty, Ruth, Aaron, etc seems almost completely untethered to today’s game.

Yeah, I don’t see the blue chip stuff pulling back. As much as I’d love to see I’d be pretty surprised if it did.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Carter08

Gut feeling is I’m not seeing how it would help in any way but also don’t think it will affect much. Interest in Cy, Ty, Ruth, Aaron, etc seems almost completely untethered to today’s game.

I think the Ruth's, Gehrigs, Cobbs, and Mantles of the world stay the way they are for the most part. I think modern would most likely get hit the hardest. I could see the lower tier of Hall of Famers, who did see some moderate increases fall back to earth.

[egri]

My first thought was that modern would be impacted if we lose part of the season, but we lost over 100 games in 2020, and prices still went crazy. I realize we're not as locked down now as back then, but with this new variant, who knows?

[mrreality68]

Unless we lose the entire season I do not believe the collection industry will be hurt
1. Fanatics buying Topps means they believe on the industry and they are investing pretty heavy to get into it
2. So much new money coming into the hobby that it is no longer a true hobby and becoming more of a commodity like stocks and also less impacted
3. Vintage minimal to no impact while modern has more to lose but enough cards and enough activity to cover for an extended period
4. So much no interest, new stories and news about the industry and with each auction when a top level card goes for top dollar more people see it and more get the “investment” bug

[Peter_Spaeth]

I think it will affect people who spend a lot of money gambling on young players with the hope of flipping them if they get hot. I doubt that's a huge portion of the hobby and in any case the impact will be temporary.

I guess too if it looks like a long work stoppage, it could affect Trout's values, as his career prospects have already started to dim a bit missing so many games.

Is there anyone on a milestone quest that would seriously be impacted by loss of a big part of a season, not sure.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by egri

My first thought was that modern would be impacted if we lose part of the season, but we lost over 100 games in 2020, and prices still went crazy. I realize we're not as locked down now as back then, but with this new variant, who knows?

I think most people are willing to combat the latest variant. I can't speak for other states, but here in NY cases of Omicron are through the roof, yet Restaurants, Schools, Businesses really aren't slowing down for the most part.

Peter I would agree, the prospect flippers, would probably be effected most by this. With our transition from a Hobby to an Asset Class, I think modern has the most to lose.

[jburl]

If Pujols can convince someone to give him another year, he can continue his quest for 700 HR. Striking distance of Babe on the RBI list. Missing the season would hurt his chances of another season.

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[todeen]

I wanted to add, I said it in another thread, I hope the lockout lasts into the season or wipes out the season. I am a fan of the modern game, and it has some real underlying problems that need to be addressed. Cough*tanking*cough

Since I collect players of my youth, I'm not very concerned about the latest new products and when or how they are released. However, I could see prices for lower tier HOF increasing in price due to flipping, similar to Rickey Henderson RC.

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[jchcollins]

I'd love for it to mean that vintage takes a nosedive, and certain cards I want / need become wildly affordable again. But we all know that ain't happening.

[jsfriedm]

On its own I'm not sure it would impact high-end vintage too much, but combined with a significant Fed pullback causing a fall in asset prices, I think the impact could be significant.

[Rich Klein]

If History of 1994-95 is any guide AND this lasts a long-time expect vintage (to loosely mean 2005 or back to have a nice bump in interest and people collect the cards of earlier eras.

I know that's not everyone's definition of vintage but I'm going with the historical precedent here

Rich

[Snapolit1]

If those overpriced cry babies go on strike again that will be the last straw. Prices on cards will plunge. Baseball is dying already and no one cares. Another labor action will probably be the end of the national pastime as we know it. Kids today don't care about the game already. Most fans never came back after the last strike. One more strike like that and you wont be able to give away tickets to games.



(None of the above is true. Not one word of it. But I thought maybe I will save some other person from having to write it.)