Where Cards are and are going - Link to Josh Luper's "statement"

[Misunderestimated]

I just thought that someone should link to this....
As I understand it the author, Josh Luper, is the key person, the "Chief Vision Officer," for Fanatics cards as the company enters -- takes over -- the production end new card market from Topps, Panini etc for baseball, basketball, football etc. in the next few years.

Go to :

www.tradingcardsarecoolagain.com



Obviously this does not directly address "vintage" (whatever that is now) but I thought there was enough interest to warrant linking to it...

[Exhibitman]

That was a very interesting read. Thanks for posting it. Relevant to vintage in the sense that modern collecting is a gateway to vintage, as it was for all of us kids 20-50 years ago, so a surge in modern collectors is likely to evolve into a surge of vintage collectors after a while. MJ is a gateway to Wilt The Stilt.

[ASF123]

I wonder how generalizable his analysis is to sports cards other than basketball, though (he talks about cards generally, but almost all of his examples are basketball). Does the analogy to sneakers work? Sneakers and basketball (and probably also football) are linked to hip-hop and youth culture in a way that baseball is…not.

[mrreality68]

interesting read but not sure of the impact on vintage but interesting for more modern stuff

[BobC]

Definitely an interesting read, though not necessarily as applicable to the vintage, especially pre-war, baseball card market. I always thought baseball cards were the top component, by far, of sales and activity of the U.S. sports card market. Yet on that CL50 Index referenced in the essay, there were only 15 baseball cards (30.0%) on it, with only one of them being a pre-war card ('33 Goudey - Ruth). Also noticed how 49 of those 50 cards referenced were PSA graded versions (only 1 by BGS), seeming to further push the reliance almost solely on PSA grading for applicable market confidence and measurement. And though he also discussed issues with card grading backlogs and the cessation of acceptance of new submissions by some TPGs, not a single word about the suspected, and still unresolved, card alteration issue still hanging over select sellers, TPGs, and the hobby as a whole.

But if this guy's arguments and predictions are even close to true, we are definitely not a hobby anymore, but an emerging new investing commodity market and industry, with all these slick young, new, business and investment types entering into it. But I fear not so much as to promote, take part, and enjoy card collecting themselves, but more so to figure out how to jump in and take more money from collectors like us. He even got our hobby into a comparison with Bitcoin, of all things.

So if this is truly where things are headed, I think I finally have it figured out. I just need to get Kanye, Megan Thee Stallion, or maybe the Biebs, to pose with a few S74s and upload and post pictures of it on Twitter or Instagram. Maybe then my silk collection will actually be worth something. LOL.

[Rich Klein]

As a person who lives in both the new card world and the vintage (pre-1980) world, I can assure you we as a vintage group are going to be fine.

Now the biggest changes will occur in the brand new (beginning about 2024 or so) and the really expensive cards (the high dollar cards which a large majority of us can't afford to own).

So rest assured, our T206 monster quests or our baseball history quests will not be affected.

Rich

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Thanks for posting...great read and analysis. I'm hopeful we're at the beginning of a huge expansion in the hobby. Fearful Topps will try and burn it all down by over producing on their way out the door.

[tulsaboy]

I think an interesting question that is raised both by the article and by some of the responses above is this: what percentage of sports card collectors see themselves primarily as investors, and their collections as an "asset," versus what percentage see themselves as collectors, without primarily valuing their collections as investments?

I know that most everyone who collects cards is cognizant of their value, and I think it would be absurd to think that most aren't. That said, I think there are certainly a significant number of collectors who collect for the sake of collecting. Their cards are not perceived as investments. Their cards are not something they consider when they evaluate their "assets" in terms of retirement, income, liquidity etc. For instance, me. My collection is probably worth an equivalent of 25% of the value of my retirement funds. But I don't particularly care. I don't ever sell, I just buy. Much of what I have, I bought years ago when it was much cheaper. Unlike many folks here, I still buy each year's base Topps product and hand-build sets with my kids simply because it's fun and not because it's efficient or really worth the money I spend. When I die, or when I get tired of the cards, they will be sold. But I'm not banking on them to fund my retirement in any way, nor am I counting on them to fund a vacation home or new sports car. They are just fun for me, regardless of value. I suspect there are a ton of collectors who feel the same way. I would just be interested in knowing what the percentages of both groups are right now.

kevin

[obcbobd]

Originally Posted by tulsaboy

I think an interesting question that is raised both by the article and by some of the responses above is this: what percentage of sports card collectors see themselves primarily as investors, and their collections as an "asset," versus what percentage see themselves as collectors, without primarily valuing their collections as investments?

I would guess the majority of this forum might be a bit of both. For me, I am like you, 100% collector.

One thing I've noticed, especially with newer cards is a lot of folks are neither investors or collectors but "gamblers", looking for a quick return, much in the way people do when buying lottery tickets.

[Rich Klein]

There is one other elephant in the room so to speak and depending on the result, And that is as of today, IMHO there is about a 99 percent chance we have a lockout by the baseball owners on 12.1

Option 1

Lockout is over no later than 2.10. In that case we'll have a truncated hot stove league but spring training will begin on or nearly on time and no real impact to the 2022 season

Option 2

Lockout runs a bit longer and impacts slightly the regular season. If it does only that there will be a minimal impact and we'll go on with a hiccup

Option 3

Lockout runs a long time and basically ruins the 2022 season. As a hobby we gave 2020 a COVID-19 Pass and everyone understood how the season was worked out in real time and other sports could draw upon what Baseball did to make the season go easier for them.

If this occurs, and this is based on the 1994-5 Baseball Strike combined with Hockey Lockout issue, then our hobby will have a hurt and we may lose a lot of the "new" people who have come in.

End Result: This board, and what is primarily covered, will be just fine for about 98 percent of us and the other 2 percent will adjust or leave.

Regards
Rich

[BobC]

Originally Posted by obcbobd

I would guess the majority of this forum might be a bit of both. For me, I am like you, 100% collector.

One thing I've noticed, especially with newer cards is a lot of folks are neither investors or collectors but "gamblers", looking for a quick return, much in the way people do when buying lottery tickets.

Not so sure I'd write them off entirely as non-investors. IMO these "gamblers" as you call them are like the "day traders" from back in the day. More of a short term investor (and generally not very succesful), but still an investor of sorts.