So do you think Kershaw retires?

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Left the game in the 2nd inning after a recurrence of the "forearm discomfort" which is usually a euphemism for "Tommy John surgery is in your immediate future" they tried the rest cure and in 4 games since coming back he had two strong outings and two dumpster fires.

At 33 now he'd miss all of next season. As much as I love him does it really make sense to try a comeback at 35?

If he does retire where does he rank on your list of all time greats? How much does the injury bug of the last 5 or 6 seasons hurt your ranking of him? Even though he did rack up Cy Young votes in most of those seasons!

[G1911]

I'd rank him lower than most; but mostly because he has pitched so few innings. Less than 2,500 if he retires today. I'm fine with pitchers pitching less innings per game than they used too, but this mentality is not seeming to extend careers very much, if at all. Pitchers are pitching far less total innings before they are done; it's hard to put a guy with 2,451 innings alongside the greats who clocked far, far more. I'd put him just a notch below Pedro, way ahead of Koufax, but significantly below the greats who produced for many, many more total innings.

On the other hand, he has no real decline to knock him for. He has a 137 ERA+ in his last four seasons, which are his "decline" years. That's absurd, he's still very, very good and producing major value, he's just not the ERA leader every single year now. So far he has aged very well, from a rate stat point of view even as the injuries cut his work load further.

[Seven]

Originally Posted by Aquarian Sports Cards

Left the game in the 2nd inning after a recurrence of the "forearm discomfort" which is usually a euphemism for "Tommy John surgery is in your immediate future" they tried the rest cure and in 4 games since coming back he had two strong outings and two dumpster fires.

At 33 now he'd miss all of next season. As much as I love him does it really make sense to try a comeback at 35?

If he does retire where does he rank on your list of all time greats? How much does the injury bug of the last 5 or 6 seasons hurt your ranking of him? Even though he did rack up Cy Young votes in most of those seasons!

I think he gets the surgery (assuming it's Tommy John) and see's how his recovery goes before making a decision on the future of his career. In terms of how'd I rank him? Probably somewhere in the Schilling/Glavine/Mussina range. I think at his peak he was a force to be reckoned with, much like Pedro Martinez, but he's clearly on the decline and he won't pitch to see the back end of his thirties.

[Aquarian Sports Cards]

Originally Posted by Seven

I think he gets the surgery (assuming it's Tommy John) and see's how his recovery goes before making a decision on the future of his career. In terms of how'd I rank him? Probably somewhere in the Schilling/Glavine/Mussina range. I think at his peak he was a force to be reckoned with, much like Pedro Martinez, but he's clearly on the decline and he won't pitch to see the back end of his thirties.

I dunno I like the Pedro comparison more, Nothing against the other three you mentioned, but none of them were the consensus greatest pitcher in the game for several years. I guess I'm not as hung up on longevity. You can't be a one year wonder or even a couple year fluke, but he's only had one season since 2011 that he didn't finish top 10 in Cy Young voting. That's pretty damn sustained excellence in my book. you can't find many pitchers who got Cy young votes in 9 different seasons, let alone over a 10 year span!

Schilling received Cy Young votes 4x
Glavine 6x
Mussina 9x over 17 years and only once higher than 4th

Even Pedro only received votes 7x, though like Kershaw he won 3x (though Kershaw was robbed the year they gave it to Dickey.)

Even this year he had three disaster starts and his FIP is under 3.00 for the first time in several years, so his 3.55 ERA is a little unlucky. His K rate was back up over 10 even though his velocity was topping out at 91-92 and he wasn't walking anyone as usual. Hey I'm a Dodger homer, I get it, but I just don't think you are giving his body of work the credit it deserves.

I have Pedro in my top 5 all time and to me he and Kershaw are a very apt comparison with incredibly similar career numbers.

Oh and Kershaw is the Live Ball era Career leader in ERA among starters. WAY ahead of Whitey Ford in 2nd. In an era of rampant scoring he's the greatest at not allowing runs to score. Isn't that a pitcher's job? Or if he's just supposed to keep guys off the bases? He's the greatest live ball era starter in WHIP also.

[Peter_Spaeth]

To me he will always be the man who got shelled in the post season, inexplicably, time after time after time.

On his regular season record, you have to rank him pretty high, 15-20 ish I would think, not top 10.

[Mike D.]

If he retired today, Kershaw would be #31 all time in WAR for a starting pitcher.

Of those ahead of him, only Clemens (for obvious reasons), 19th Century pitcher Jim McCormick, and likely future inductees Curt Schilling and Zack Greinke are not in the Hall.

If he needs to go under the knife, though, I think he does it...with a new elbow he could pitch 2-3 more seasons and move himself into some really interesting comp conversations.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by Peter_Spaeth

To me he will always be the man who got shelled in the post season, inexplicably, time after time after time.

On his regular season record, you have to rank him pretty high, 15-20 ish I would think, not top 10.

A timely injury and the Dodgers are probably happy with an improved chance of winning the World Series.

[egri]

I think he'll get the surgery and come back as a reliever. He's not the force he used to be, but he still has enough left in the tank.