A question about the current market

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Is now a good time to buy something like a green Cobb, or would I be better served in waiting until the current market calms down a bit? The modern card market is nuts right now, but I can't tell about the vintage market. The green Cobb appears to have been on the upswing for the last year anyway, so I am not clear on my course of action. I would be looking for good eye appeal in the 2-3 range. Thanks.

[trambo]

I keep thinking the tobacco card market will calm down at some point but have been thinking that for a year. It doesn't look like it'll slow down anytime soon if Covid-19 can't slow it! I'd also say it helps to be patient. I'm trying to upgrade my t206 set and actually need a better Green Cobb. Just can't find one that I like in a fair price range. I'll keep looking, though!

Good luck!!

[conor912]

While I don’t have a crystal ball, I do know two things. 1) blue chips cards are selling at all time highs and 2) my dad, who is a non collector and does not follow the hobby in any way, has been forwarding me articles about the hobby from major news sources and has suggested he might want to invest in cards. Those two things together indicate bubble to me. Just my thoughts. I’m sure there are many here willing to argue the opposite.

[Stampsfan]

FWIW, for the last week or so on eBay I have been getting offers on some vintage cards for amounts well under SMR. Prices surprised me and I’ve now wondered if some dealers are looking for cash.

[packs]

Buy what you can when you can buy it. There was a time when the green Cobb cost $200 and somebody figured it would come down from there too.

[hcv123]

You'd need one to properly address your question. So many factors in play. The thing that has been shocking the heck out of me is the prices some of the vintage material (particularly T206's) have been bringing at auction - really strong. Will it continue? That is the million dollar question. I can't tell you how many times I thought prices in our hobby market couldn't be sustained. I remember when PSA was getting started and I had a friend was buying any PSA 9 Clemente's he could find and spending like 5-10 times the amount raw ones were going for - I told him he was NUTS! Years later he laughed all the way to the bank Just never know.

[perezfan]

Originally Posted by conor912

While I don’t have a crystal ball, I do know two things. 1) blue chips cards are selling at all time highs and 2) my dad, who is a non collector and does not follow the hobby in any way, has been forwarding me articles about the hobby from major news sources and has suggested he might want to invest in cards. Those two things together indicate bubble to me. Just my thoughts. I’m sure there are many here willing to argue the opposite.

I would tend to agree with this. Anytime people outside of the hobby (any hobby- not just cards) are hearing about it and giving advice, the opportunity has likely already come and gone. I think we are in a bubble that's going to burst sooner rather than later.

Maybe if they actually start playing baseball in July, it will sustain interest and card prices for a while longer. But as actual jobs are lost and federal/state government benefits subside, the euphoria is likely to come back down to earth.

[pitchernut]

If the rumors are correct and every adult US citizen gets $2000.00 a month for the next six months, even I might go over my budget on cards on my wish list But then again so will the prices rise jmho

[Santo10Fan]

People who never had time for their hobbies in the past finally have time to focus on them. We've all found some therapeutic value in this hobby and now others are too. The Jordan rookie card frenzy seems directly related to ESPN's work so it's no small wonder they would look to amplify that with hobby related stories. PSA 10s have moved from $20K to $50K within the span of a year. If I had one I'd be selling quick and look to buy it back on the way down with that leftover cash in my pocket.

BTW, the next big ESPN hobby-relevant is “Long Gone Summer,” about McGwire and Sosa’s quest to topple Roger Maris’s single-season home run record in the summer of 1998.

[Johnny630]

Originally Posted by pitchernut

If the rumors are correct and every adult US citizen gets $2000.00 a month for the next six months, even I might go over my budget on cards on my wish list But then again so will the prices rise jmho

That rumor will never come true. At least I hope not.

[cardsagain74]

Originally Posted by perezfan

I would tend to agree with this. Anytime people outside of the hobby (any hobby- not just cards) are hearing about it and giving advice, the opportunity has likely already come and gone. I think we are in a bubble that's going to burst sooner rather than later.

Maybe if they actually start playing baseball in July, it will sustain interest and card prices for a while longer. But as actual jobs are lost and federal/state government benefits subside, the euphoria is likely to come back down to earth.

This is pretty much the opposite of what I've experienced. Whenever I mention lately how I've gotten involved in the hobby again, everyone I know (from various walks of life) looks at me like they haven't thought of baseball cards since they were little kids.

And while there's been a decent move in a lot of prices since the shutdown began, I don't think much besides '80s basketball has been even close to bubble-like yet. Other than some exceptions like the ridiculously high-end Trout and Brady rookies, and I'm not sure how much of that is the rarity of those cards. I actually found an old SCD from April '92 the other day and was surprised how most post war vintage (around grade EX/EX-MT or lower) is selling today for the same prices as 28 years ago. The only people laughing to the bank from years ago with those are the ones who have had around PSA 8 or higher material (or the '52 T Mantle).

It has a different feel than the junk wax boom. That made sports cards a total fad for a few years, while this might be more lasting collectibles interest in general. I hope, anyway

[Bobbycee]

Originally Posted by cardsagain74

This is pretty much the opposite of what I've experienced. Whenever I mention lately how I've gotten involved in the hobby again, everyone I know (from various walks of life) looks at me like they haven't thought of baseball cards since they were little kids.

And while there's been a decent move in a lot of prices since the shutdown began, I don't think much besides '80s basketball has been even close to bubble-like yet. Other than some exceptions like the ridiculously high-end Trout and Brady rookies, and I'm not sure how much of that is the rarity of those cards. I actually found an old SCD from April '92 the other day and was surprised how most post war vintage (around grade EX/EX-MT or lower) is selling today for the same prices as 28 years ago. The only people laughing to the bank from years ago with those are the ones who have had around PSA 8 or higher material (or the '52 T Mantle).

It has a different feel than the junk wax boom. That made sports cards a total fad for a few years, while this might be more lasting collectibles interest in general. I hope, anyway

Sorry, but I most definitely disagree with you one one point. I started collecting T206's 25 years ago & was paying $20-$25 per card for commons (sometimes as low at $15 for VG-EX commons on Ebay) & around $125 for lower tier HOFers. Prices on T206 have now gone up multiple times over the past 25 years. So, I'd say you are way off, on at least T206's, which is a huge part of Pre War collecting.