2011 Topps Update Trout, to buy or not to buy

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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[Exhibitman]

If you have to ask it indicates you are having misgivings and you probably shouldn't buy it.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

I have been buying and holdng Trout for years. I have maybe around 60 updates alone. I'm glad I went in. Imagine prices if he can make the playoffs.

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I have been buying and holdng Trout for years. I have maybe around 60 updates alone. I'm glad I went in. Imagine prices if he can make the playoffs.

LOL! I wish I had been collecting modern back then.

[VoodooChild]

I bought a whole run of them back then (Base, Cognac, Diamond, and Gold parallel). I still have them all raw in top-loaders and will keep them that way. Having/buying the modern shiny stuff graded doesn't make sense to me.

My two cents: I would not buy one now though, especially not a base one at the current prices. But that's just me not willing to spend that much on modern when there's so many pre-war/vintage cards on my wish list. I'd rather try and "hit" on the next big star (Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, etc.) when their first Topps RC is released.

[HOF Auto Rookies]

Originally Posted by VoodooChild

I bought a whole run of them back then (Base, Cognac, Diamond, and Gold parallel). I still have them all raw in top-loaders and will keep them that way. Having/buying the modern shiny stuff graded doesn't make sense to me.



My two cents: I would not buy one now though, especially not a base one at the current prices. But that's just me not willing to spend that much on modern when there's so many pre-war/vintage cards on my wish list. I'd rather try and "hit" on the next big star (Wander Franco, Luis Robert, Jo Adell, Jarred Kelenic, etc.) when their first Topps RC is released.

I respectfully disagree. We haven't seen this type of player with as few RC's as him in a while. This is a flagship card that will standout to modern collectors. I'm still hoarding and buying (even 2009 BC). I told people in Blowout last year this card will reach $1k when it was selling for $500-$600 last off-season whether they like it or not. I glad slammed but I wasn't wrong.

Personally, I hate prospecting (though I have a cool Wander Franco plate rainbow). I stick to flipping proven stars to fund my HoF PC.

[VoodooChild]

Originally Posted by HOF Auto Rookies

I respectfully disagree. We haven't seen this type of player with as few RC's as him in a while. This is a flagship card that will standout to modern collectors. I'm still hoarding and buying (even 2009 BC). I told people in Blowout last year this card will reach $1k when it was selling for $500-$600 last off-season whether they like it or not. I glad slammed but I wasn't wrong.

Personally, I hate prospecting (though I have a cool Wander Franco plate rainbow). I stick to flipping proven stars to fund my HoF PC.

Hey, if you got the means to hoard them then it's certainly the right modern card to do so with. When you say "so few RC's as him", what's your guess as to the population? I figured the base card would be in the tens of thousands but I could be way wrong. Does the Update Series have limited production compared to Series 1 and 2?

I don't really prospect anymore either. My thinking is that by the time their first Topps card with the RC logo is released, they've at least made the big leagues and you have a small sample size to judge from. It's not as risky as spending $500 on a bowman chrome auto of a 17 year old in low-A.

[jchcollins]

I could be wrong, but I wonder if the appeal will last. What are the true production numbers for the ‘11 Update Trout? Even if not reaching “junk era” heights, I’ve got to assume there are a blue million of them. This is a card interestingly enough - where the PSA 10 price may be topping four figures, but a PSA 9 is not cheap either. What like $600-700? More? What would a PSA 7 go for? Still probably $500?

Contrast this with the 1993 SP Jeter - a card that is no doubt available in lower numbers, and unlike the Trout - is a truly condition sensitive card in grades 9 and above, what with those surfaces that scratch if you breathe on them. A 10 may be a six figure card, but a PSA 7 is still like less than $300? How do those demographics align with the Trout?

For what it’s worth, my money on an investment card between those two long term is going to be the Jeter.


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[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

I could be wrong, but I wonder if the appeal will last. What are the true production numbers for the ‘11 Update Trout? Even if not reaching “junk era” heights, I’ve got to assume there are a blue million of them. This is a card interestingly enough - where the PSA 10 price may be topping four figures, but a PSA 9 is not cheap either. What like $600-700? More? What would a PSA 7 go for? Still probably $500?

Contrast this with the 1993 SP Jeter - a card that is no doubt available in lower numbers, and unlike the Trout - is a truly condition sensitive card in grades 9 and above, what with those surfaces that scratch if you breathe on them. A 10 may be a six figure card, but a PSA 7 is still like less than $300? How do those demographics align with the Trout?

For what it’s worth, my money on an investment card between those two long term is going to be the Jeter.


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I used to think I had to be a prewar collector or a postwar collector or an 80s collector or a modern collector. Truth is, I love baseball across all eras and want a representative sampling of the best I can get from all those eras. Trout is certainly part of that for me. Jeter wouldn't be a bad buy either...though he was never a personal favorite.

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[jchcollins]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

Truth is, I love baseball across all eras and want a representative sampling of the best I can get from all those eras. Trout is certainly part of that for me.
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Don’t get me wrong, Robert. Trout is clearly the premier player of today’s game, and if I had cash lying around to burn, I’d probably own several of his rookie cards. I’m not disparaging anyone who does, or who invests in them. I do think the card is very high for what it is, but that’s fine.




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[vintagebaseballcardguy]

Originally Posted by jchcollins

Don’t get me wrong, Robert. Trout is clearly the premier player of today’s game, and if I had cash lying around to burn, I’d probably own several of his rookie cards. I’m not disparaging anyone who does, or who invests in them. I do think the card is very high for what it is, but that’s fine.




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I hear ya. It is pretty eye opening.

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[maniac_73]

I always consider buying modern but I still have PTSD from making my dad buy me a Leaf Frank Thomas Rookie thinking it was going to make me rich when I got older lol. Once people move on to the next player prices go down. The Wander Franco hype makes me shake my head, he may be a good player but the prices for an unproven 18 year old are crazy. Excuse me while I dig up my Brien Taylor cards

[AGuinness]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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If I didn't have one and I wanted one, I'd probably look for a midgrade example, a 7 perhaps. Those sell for $300-400, it seems.
Recent sales of raw examples range from $300-600, which is pretty incredible. 8-card packs from that issue sell for $100, while the Jumbos sell for $500.
I think the only big downside to the card is if Trout gets popped for PEDs (although I doubt Brosius' kid knows what he's talking about). It certainly isn't out of the question, just look at Cano, but I don't see the bottom falling out on this card otherwise.
And I think it's too bad that the card is so expensive, because there must be a bunch of kids out there who are anywhere from 6 to 14 years old who are big fans but may never be able to have a Trout RC because of the cost. And especially so despite it being a mass produced and mainstream issue.

[Foo3112]

Going back to the OP's question, I would say that Trout is a GREAT buy (and I wouldn't say that for really any of the modern guys). Yes, even at the $1100 price tag today. The card was selling at under $400 just over two years ago and already in his sixth season at that time. He was already a solid player. He is the face of MLB today and has always been extremely popular amongst fans and collectors. He is what I consider a blue chip. A sure thing - regardless if he makes the playoffs or wins a World Series.

As far as you not feeling safe with PSA, I understand but I will say this. I would rather have it in a PSA holder and know that at least someone took a look at it rather than have it raw and wonder two things, what's the true condition and second, if someone even trimmed that one.

I say go for it if that's what you want. If you're still on the fence about the player, then perhaps go with a 1993 Topps Derek Jeter Gold PSA 10. They currently can be had for about $1000 and I believe they will be $1,400 within two years now that he's in.

[Neal]

US175 has room to grow ... I think it could be trading at 1500 by seasons end. Crazy or not. Modern collectors are different than vintage guys. Trout is the best in the game

Plus, it is one of the best looking Topps RC cards ever made

[packs]

I would wait on this card if I were you guys. If you remember, there was a time when the 89 UD Griffey was sky high. You can now buy all the 10's you want for four to five hundred dollars.

[bnorth]

Originally Posted by Neal

US175 has room to grow ... I think it could be trading at 1500 by seasons end. Crazy or not. Modern collectors are different than vintage guys. Trout is the best in the game

Plus, it is one of the best looking Topps RC cards ever made

Short term it is still a good buy. Long term it is a horrible investment. Cards are always ridiculously priced when great players are still playing great. Once they start declining as a player so do their card prices.

Packs post above mine is a great example.

[dictoresno]

I think the ship has sailed when it comes to buying these. I remember three years ago they were $300-330 and I said nah too high and decided not to cough up the money for one. I should've obviously, as my uncle who just got back into collecting at the time grabbed one or two. that was the going rate on those.

then, about almost 2 yrs ago, I remember the market manipulation on these where someone from either California or Vegas was pumping them. there were like 6-8 auctions all listed at once on ebay and the final prices ended in the $600+ range and I believe were purchased by the same person. if I recall, it was suspected that the owner of them were selling and buying them back from their different accounts at high prices. this caused a stir on forums as suspicious. ever since those new "comps", they set the new market value and since then its been increasing, as far as I know, totally manipulated. I threw the towel in and decided against buying one, especially now. I think they are way artificially inflated, especially when you look at the high number of PSA 10's in the pop report and the full availability of them. they aren't scarce by any means.

not gonna say they are topped out, but way too overpriced now to buy in.

[infielders3]

Originally Posted by vintagebaseballcardguy

This card in PSA 10 is topping $1,000. I have considered buying one...I wasn't collecting that stuff in 2011, of course. Toying with the idea of a 9, 10, or possibly even a raw complete set with a solid Trout that isn't altered. That's the rub these days, however. I don't feel like I can trust PSA to have caught all the trimmed ones, and the raw ones...well, I want to believe but... You guys who collect modern have any thoughts? I feel stuck.

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So... did you buy it? A PSA 10 sold for $2,380 yesterday.