Aaron Judge

[Hardspun8]

Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?

[WillBBC]

Dunn 2.0 would be a great player! Being in NY will only help and I hope he can cut down on the strikeouts but I can't remember a guy his size ever having great success in MLB. If he shortens his swing and can learn to take walks he will be a stud.

[RayBShotz]

Michael Conforto has a better shot at the moment (Mets).

[D. Bergin]

Maybe he will surprise me, but I don't rate him highly at all. As a Yankee fan I'd be ecstatic if he projects out to a Richie Sexson type, but I think that's pushing the boundries of expectations, and that certainly doesn't map out as a player to "invest" in.

[packs]

I tend to agree with you. I just don't think he'll develop the ability to walk which really puts pressure on him to hit 30 plus homers a year. Even if he is able to do that we all saw Chris Carter nearly go to Japan due to lack of interest.

[D. Bergin]

It's not like Judge has put up mind-blowing stats in the minor leagues. Not sure how pretty good minor league hitter maps out to Superstar major league potential. It's not like he's just out of High School either. He's pushing 25 already.

He's about 8 months younger then Mike Trout.

[poytor]

Frank Howard was 6-7, he had a decent career, 1960 AL ROY, and won a ring with the 63 Dodgers.

[Rich Klein]

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

[packs]

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

[frankbmd]

Originally Posted by packs

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

I think I just heard Babe Ruth roll over in his grave.

[D. Bergin]

Frank Howard is a decent comparison. He won ROY at age 23, but had his real breakout year at age 25. Judge walks more (and also strikes out more), at this point in his career, but Howard built his Walk numbers up as his career went on.

I would guess Judges batting average will eventually fall in line to around Howards levels as his career goes on. I have a feeling he's having a Norm Cash like outlier year, as far as his B.A. goes.. I think Frank Howard is a much more realistic goal for him then Miguel Cabrera.

No shame in that. Frank had some fantastic years.

[Peter_Spaeth]

Originally Posted by packs

I beg to differ. Judge is hitting 332 right now. Kingman never sniffed anywhere close to 300. Howard I think is closer, but again he never dominated the league in the types of categories Judge is. He leads the AL in runs, home runs, rbi's, total bases, on base, slugging, OPS, and walks.

.288 in 1979. Some would call that close.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Rich Klein

Simplest Judge investment advice:

Short term, sure fine go for it and flip those cards

Long term: doubtful based on baseball history. Probably too late of a start (age 25) for the HOF.

This would all change is somehow he hit 71 homers in a season without steroids or the Yankees win a couple of World Series with him as the key player.

To me, he's a better Dave Kingman or as noted Frank Howard.

Rich

Rich, with all due respect, I think the PED genie is one you never, ever get back in the bottle with the current salary levels. Does anyone really think Starling Marte was the only one taking Nandrolone? My bet is that an effective masking agent was developed, which Marte thought he was getting, but someone sold him a bill of goods instead. I don't think we will ever know for certain who is or has been using PED's. I separate baseball history into two eras in this regard: pre-1985 and post-1985, but without any real prejudice--the PED era simply represents the conditions under which the game has and IMHO IS being played. I, for one, really enjoyed seeing Mark McGwire play. Just don't try to directly compare the two or players from different eras. That's simply apples and oranges.

Regards,

Larry

[megalimey]

Originally Posted by Hardspun8

Do you guys think Aaron Judge is a good Investment or is he going to be Adam Dunn 2.0?

Last year it was Trevor story who got off to a blazing start his stuff was lazor hot
Now you cannot give it away. Give me a dead hall of Famer any day and twice on sundays . you want to gamble Kentucky Derby tomorrow at least it will be over in 2 minutes, verses waiting for a pipe dream

[D. Bergin]

I certainly under-estimated Judge. I understand he was drafted more as an athlete and on his potential rather then his actual skills at the time, as he came to baseball a little late.

Looks like things finally started to click for him. He always had the pop, but just had problems with the contact.

Still, I imagine it's a short term thing with him. He still got off to a late start, and would have to completely dominate for a long time to pay off if you plan on holding on to his cards. Short term, I guess it will just be a timing thing, much like penny stocks.

Also, don't forget. Big guys like him get hurt. He seems athletic now, but it's only a matter of time before back and knee issues kick in and he gets relegated to DH or 1st Base duty.

I'd be happy if he could be our Jay Buhner for the next 5 years or so. Luckily the Yankees didn't trade him for Ken Phelps before he finally blossomed.

[packs]

His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.

[yankeesjetsfan]

Love watching this kid player play. Night and day from the player last season. Slumping a bit from the hot start, but I don't feel that will last long. He is helping in the field and showed off the arm throwing out Billy Hamilton at second the other night. Future is bright for him.

Mike

[ls7plus]

Saw a couple of his games in the last few days. They are starting to get him out consistently with pitches breaking down and in (circle changes from righties; sliders from lefties), with a high fastball or two mixed in. Will have to see if he adjusts. I still wouldn't buy him in any event until he has proven his worth over a large major league sample size, is in his 30's down-slide phase, and the speculative and transient demand has migrated to the newest, latest and greatest hot item!

Best of luck and joy in your collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by packs

His cards have really shot up. I looked yesterday and was shocked to see his 2013 Bowman sells for like $400 raw now. I remember considering buying one when it was $40.

Ah, the nature of the new card market for up and coming phenoms! Initial demand is primarily speculative and transient, with card dealers bursting at the seams to take advantage of that "must have" urge within us. Better to wait until they are in their mid to late 30's downslide and this type of demand will have moved on to the latest and greatest. Their cards will still be out there, and likely much cheaper (see the Topps 1990 No-Name on Front Frank Thomas rookie for comparison purposes. When first discovered and subsequently popularized in the early '90's, Beckett had it for $1600 in near mint. By 2009, a NrMt to Mt example could be had for less than $600. Just a few months ago, however, one in PSA 3 went for over $2K on ebay. Moral of the story? Buy when demand is lowest, but before the player makes the HOF).

Good luck in your collecting,

Larry

[ls7plus]

Saw Judge hit a 457 footer last weekend versus the Astros to dead center. Mantle type power (almost) with Wheaties box, all-American good looks. Hope he makes good, as it would be great for the game!

Best wishes,

Larry

[Big Six]

I don't miss Cano...pretty sure he didn't do it the right way if you know what I mean. Judge seems to be the right guy at the right time...and there doesn't seem to be any doubt that the guy is as natural as they come.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[packs]

What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?

[Big Six]

Originally Posted by packs

What does that mean? Cano has the sweetest swing since Griffey if you ask me. You're saying he's cheating? Why?

It means that I have my suspicions he cheated. And I don't miss him. Happy with Didi and Starling...and will be happy with Torres or Mateo. Love what the Yankees have done to make over this team...and they did it quickly. And they seem to have done it right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[packs]

I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.

BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.

[Big Six]

Originally Posted by packs

I agree with the rest of your sentiment but I really have a hard time understanding why you think he cheated. I'm sorry he's gone. Cano could have been on the wall of retired numbers with a plaque in the outfield and I would have been happy to see it.



BUT, I am still happy with the crop of infielders they have in the minors and the emergence of Judge. It's great that the Yankees have that guy again.

There have been hints of steroid use dating back to 2012. I truly believe the Yankees were happy to see the Mariners offer ridiculous money, allowing them to "let him walk away." I'm not saying he wasn't/isn't a fantastic player...I just believe that there is an awful lot of smoke that he cheated. This was really one of the first times that the Yankees showed restraint and I think that was in no small part due to their concerns for why he was playing as well as he was...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Big Six]

You're presupposing that I don't think he's a good player...he is a great player. I just believe that there was concern that he was tainted. And so it was easier to go after Ellsbury, hurt the Sox, and distance themselves from Cano. To your point, the Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Big Six]

Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by Big Six

Like I said, Ellsbury signing looks terrible in hindsight.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by ls7plus

What in the world do they do with Ellsbury when he comes back? Michael, the main NY broadcaster, has taken to referring to Hicks as "Hank Aaron" Hicks. Sure Ellsbury is better in the field, except perhaps for his arm, but I frankly don't see where Ells is going to play--certainly Gardner and Judge aren't going anywhere. Ellsbury is worth about a third of his salary, if that, and no one would take him in a trade.

Best wishes,

Larry

I don't think any of those guys are particularly durable, so plenty of room for a 4th outfielder and platoon/pinch hit situations I think.

The more flexibility the better. Not that you want your $20 million dollar guy to be your 4th outfielder, but we've paid more then that for A-Rod to essentially ride the bench or miss entire seasons.

[rjackson44]

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

[MattyC]

Being so immersed in PreWar and vintage, I had long forgotten the thrill and sheer fun of chasing the key cards of a current star. Judge is a real positive jolt for Yankee fans of all ages right now, and fans of baseball as well.

Pivoting to the value discussion, bought a bunch of his Blue Heritage Autos at the $750 price point, and finally added the Red Ink variation yesterday.

After the 2013 Chrome and the 2017 Heritage autos, I'm a big fan of the Topps Series 1 1987 style auto card, seems scarce relative to the current crop.

The Topps Archives cards are also very cool. I really dig how they smartly embrace the old 1983 design; creates inherent appeal for us ancient 40-yr olds who collected as kids back then.

[D. Bergin]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

That's way, way smarter then the time I bought up about 15 Michael Jordan Rookies for about $5 each, and then sold them a week later for about $20 each, back in the later 80's.

Still kicking myself for that and the case of 1984 Topps Football I sold for 20 bucks a box.

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by rjackson44

I was buying the judges rookies $30 to $50 now I've sold them $500 to $700 each better than the stock market 😊

Congrats! Reminds me of when I was buying nice McGwire rookies in 1992 (about a dozen, as I recall, each purchased separately and selected for sharp corners and centering) for $10-$15, and selling them at the '98 National for $60-$80. It was amazing how many dealers had signs posted that they were buying McGwire.

Happy collecting,

Larry