Rising Tide Lifts All Boats, But . . .

[JustCollectVP]

With the onslaught of record prices for many higher grade and higher profile cards, there has been some truth to the old adage that a rising tide lifts all boats. But where there is a rising tide, there has to be an ebb as well.

The purpose of this post is to raise discussion about possible areas that are suffering from the rising tide. While many wonder whether this is an approaching bubble or something else, I'm pretty sure that taking all things into consideration, there is a wide range of opportunity if one only examines where the rising waters are focusing their attention. There are areas of the hobby that have fallen on lean times.

There is always an equilibrium in the hobby, and while some are chasing with dollars in hand trying to catch the ice cream truck before the flavor of the day sells out, I believe that the astute hobbyist has already identified areas of opportunity and is and will continue to take advantage while these opportunities are present.

I'd love to hear the thoughts of other members and get their feelings. Whether you're running after the ice cream truck, selling your ice cream or just wonder what the hell I mean by an ice cream truck and rising boats, it would be interesting to read the perspective of others as it relates to where you all think the hobby is heading...

[byrone]

Another perspective...

"Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked"

Warren Buffett

[Leon]

Mid grade commons from many pre-war sets are setting record low levels.

[Peter_Spaeth]

All I have to do to prove that the onslaught of record prices is an illusion is to list a card for a reasonable price on ebay or the BST.

[Joshwesley]

I was about to say.... I got into the hobby this time last year and it "seems" as if prices for mid/low t206 commons has gone way down.


SGC 40's and PSA 4's were pretty expensive this time last year... Not anymore.

Maybe I'm off base?

[JustCollectVP]

There are many pre-war sectors that have plunged. There also has been a significant ebb in the supplemental post-war commons.

Does this present a buying opportunity? Does this just suggest that money has been reallocated?

[vintagebaseballcardguy]

This thread really speaks to my internal struggle as a collector. I love the idea of continuing to be a set collector. However, my collecting budget is a bit limited at this stage of life by choice so I can't feel good about sinking money into commons. I stop and consider that I could purchase some nice star cards out of multiple sets I like for the money I would tie up in commons.

I have gone so far as to consider selling off the commons and much of my '53 Topps set and '65 Topps partial and just holding on to the five or so cards I really want and then using the newly redeemed cash to buy cards of HOFers (pre and postwar ) I would really like to have.

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk

[T206Collector]

I have a couple of general thoughts on this.

The maturing of the Internet and proliferation of on-line auction houses has dramatically influenced how people collect - not just what, but how they enter the hobby, and what interests them from day to day.

Mantle and Cobb, for some reason, have taken off at a rate I haven't really seen in quite awhile. I sold mine for what I thought were ridiculous prices only to look back just a few months and start to feel like I should've waited a bit longer. People who recognized the value in Mantle's 51B card only a few months ago are now seeing even crazier prices today.

Common T206s in 5 and below have stayed at about the same level for the past 10 years or so, with some exceptions - collectors are also waking up collectively to the relative scarcities of certain commons in the set (e.g., Bull Durham).

The takeaways for me are not that different than usual - Cobb and Mantle and Ruth always sell and always seem to appreciate in stages.

Where I get scared is when I shell out $5K+ for a common T206 card signed by the player, a practice I've engaged in way too frequently of late. In that niche area of the market there are only three or four people engaged, and we all know each other. If I go to sell, I'm removing 25%+ of the buying market. If one or two of the other guys stop being interested there will be a massive softening. I like to remind myself that I collect for the beauty and passion without regard to price. But, if I ever need to sell, I really don't have any particular expectation that I'm going to get money back on these!

[ullmandds]

What I've learned as of the last 10-15 years...sometimes the hard way...is that rarity does not equal value. I thought the lowdy w/red cross back t207 that I won in REA years ago was kind of a bargain for what I won it for...being a 1 of a kind.

When I sold I took a big bath...and since it has sold for less with each subsequent sale.

It seems that when cards are too rare/scarce...not as many people are interested in them.

I'm a slow learner...and I tend to learn my lessons the hard way.

As long as you love collecting signed cards...ultimately that's all that matters!

[T206Collector]

Originally Posted by ullmandds

It seems that when cards are too rare/scarce...not as many people are interested in them.

This is a hugely key point. People like to chase after things, but they also like to catch them sometimes. The popularity of T206 is driven by the Wagner mystique at the top of a readily accessible set. It's proliferation and availability is a primary driver of interest in the set. People love being able to pick one up on a daily basis.

[Touch'EmAll]

Supply and demand. We all know supply on our pre-war cards is quite low. However, the supply variable is nowhere near the importance of the demand variable for card valuation. Its almost like if you get below a certain supply number, the demand is almost non-existent. There has to be enough supply to drive values up - doesn't seem right, but thats the way it works with certain "big" cards. Thinking back to college economics 101, not sure the straight line supply/demand curve works as taught here with cards.