REA bids - health of the hobby

[ajjohnsonsoxfan]

Had a chance today to go through the truly amazing REA catalog and compare bids (with 20 days to go btw) to VCP on 50+ cards and many were at or above historical highs. I was collecting vintage in the 2000's to around 2004, sold everything and then got back into it in 2014. So my question is for everyone that collected through the great recession of 2008 does this feel like we're in a bubble based on what you're seeing? Is big investor money coming into the hobby at greater rates like in 2006/2007? Would love to hear some perspectives from the pros...

[glynparson]

entering the hobby over the last couple years. It is not just wall street types either, several athletes and team owners have jumped into collecting and they obviously have passion and loads of money.

[iowadoc77]

I am relatively new, just back into collecting since 2012 but I follow the big auctions fairly closely. The prices seem ridiculous and unsustainable until the next auction comes and they increase even more. I acquire more "collector grade" cards, so the huge numbers don't affect me as much, but I am still blown away by the cash that is being thrown around in the bigger items. Or I guess instead of thrown around, you could say invested based on recent performance.

[Bored5000]

I think the hobby is in decent shape right now, but there is also a difference between REA and the hobby as a whole. The collector that buys $100 cards or $300 cards (which is a much larger pool of collectors) isn't reflected by what happens at REA or other high-end auction houses.

[GregMitch34]

As I've noted previously, not just the mega-cards in some cases--for example, huge surge in prices for 1915 Cracker Jacks in the $600 to $900 range....

[Jewish-collector]

The REA separates the men from the boys. If you're thinking of bidding for that high end card, sometimes you gotta say "WTF" and do it.

[sjim8660]

One of the things to considered and I may be off a little in saying this. Serious collectors seem more inclined to spend big dollars on REA compared to eBay because it is a LOT easier to shill on eBay. I personally am always cautious to spend over $1K on eBay because of shilling. eBay is great because no buyer premium, so that helps. As far as high prices, Baseball season just got under way, its also tax season so people have extra cash. So those things could play a factor in the higher prices. I personally am bidding on a few things for some sets I am working on and I don't mind spending more on a few cards that I have been waiting months to pop up. It makes me happy to see the vintage Baseball market healthy and growing. Cards like that 14' CJ Joe Jackson should be going for big money for several reasons. I think what people are willing to spend is finally catching up with the rarity of some of these cards.

-James Steele

[ls7plus]

Originally Posted by glynparson

THERE IS TONS OF BIG MONEY entering the hobby over the last couple years. It is not just wall street types either, several athletes and team owners have jumped into collecting and they obviously have passion and loads of money.

This is exactly what is happening, and the internet and increase in the number and quality of auction houses is making it much easier to find even the toughest items you may desire. In the '90's, you were pretty much relegated to Sports Collector's Digest and hoping to be the first to call and reserve such an item, or going to tons of major regional shows, including the National, the Rosemont shows twice per year in Chicago, Strongsville in Ohio, the Pittsburgh show and a few others in the midwest. As truly rare and significant items are purchased and stowed away by these new, well-heeled collectors (and they are collectors, not speculators, by and large--this is not a bubble!), prices rise accordingly for the fewer and fewer examples available. Remember, the supply part of the supply/demand part of the equation relating to value IS THE AVAILABLE SUPPLY, NOT THE TOTAL NUMBER IN EXISTENCE! Many of the key pieces now being purchased will not surface again for many, many years.

All the more reason for trying to think outside of the box re rare, significant and in the best condition you can find or afford, and being on the cutting edge of demand re the future, rather than on the trailing edge of the present--the latter will require a much larger bankroll!

And that's my 75 cents worth,

Larry

[BeanTown]

+1 and well put Larry. I will add TeleTrade to your list of the 90s. I think I built half a Cracker Jack set from them!

Originally Posted by ls7plus

This is exactly what is happening, and the internet and increase in the number and quality of auction houses is making it much easier to find even the toughest items you may desire. In the '90's, you were pretty much relegated to Sports Collector's Digest and hoping to be the first to call and reserve such an item, or going to tons of major regional shows, including the National, the Rosemont shows twice per year in Chicago, Strongsville in Ohio, the Pittsburgh show and a few others in the midwest. As truly rare and significant items are purchased and stowed away by these new, well-heeled collectors (and they are collectors, not speculators, by and large--this is not a bubble!), prices rise accordingly for the fewer and fewer examples available. Remember, the supply part of the supply/demand part of the equation relating to value IS THE AVAILABLE SUPPLY, NOT THE TOTAL NUMBER IN EXISTENCE! Many of the key pieces now being purchased will not surface again for many, many years.

All the more reason for trying to think outside of the box re rare, significant and in the best condition you can find or afford, and being on the cutting edge of demand re the future, rather than on the trailing edge of the present--the latter will require a much larger bankroll!

And that's my 75 cents worth,

Larry

[BobbyVCP]

Glad I only collect values because prices are just going up. Last night someone shelled out $65K for a Koufax rookie PSA 8.5, that's insane.

[pokerplyr80]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

Glad I only collect values because prices are just going up. Last night someone shelled out $65K for a Koufax rookie PSA 8.5, that's insane.

Thats crazy. It wasn't that long ago that I remember 8s sitting on ebay at 4k and 9s at 20k.

[Republicaninmass]

Originally Posted by BobbyVCP

Glad I only collect values because prices are just going up. Last night someone shilled out $65K for a Koufax rookie PSA 8.5, that's insane.

Fixed

[Gradedcardman]

So how about those bids ?

[MVSNYC]

Question...Just to confirm something posted above...

Two 52 Mantles (PSA 9) sold recently, each for $3M+?

[bobfreedman]

Originally Posted by MVSNYC

Question...Just to confirm something posted above...

Two 52 Mantles (PSA 9) sold recently, each for $3M+?

Yes, that is what I was told from a very reliable source.

[Dpeck100]

Looking at the liner notes in the SMR there has to be some collectors that just cringe looking at current prices.

From SMR


Mantle PSA NM-MT 8's sold for $62,338/$56,670 in 2004, $63,693 in 2005, $66,887 and $72,057 in 2006 and $112,800/$98,177 in 2008


Ouch.


I do see they raised the Mantle in a PSA 9 to 1.3 million.

[irv]

Originally Posted by T206Collector

It is hard to ignore the market, but every once in awhile it gives me nausea to consider the irrationality of a market for little pieces of cardboard with baseball players on them that carry little to no value in any other part of the world, and are not directly correlated to any form of universal currency like gold. It's like art, I guess, and I seem to calm down more when I think of it as so. Picasso may be hot today, but maybe in 50 years people will think he is crap - another totally irrational market.

Back 20+ years ago I heard the Japanese were big time collectors of American BB cards.

Not sure if that was true then but with their love for BB as well, I can't help but to think, maybe there was some truth to it?

Not sure today, (if the story was true) if they still are, but if they are not, then what happened?

[jkray25]

BOOM ROASTED!

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