SO OT: Yankees done, Mariners right behind them

[Runscott]

One of the headlines in today's sports section referred to the Yankees finally being out of the race. It got me thinking about how payroll equates to victories, or doesn't. See results below.

Next data-crunching effort is to see how effectively dollars are being spent by the 'vintage 16' vs 'the new guys'. At first glance, the failures are led by vintage teams - Phillies, Reds, Red Sox and Yankees; however, the vintage teams also have some of the best bang for the buck: A's, Pirates and Orioles.

In any event, here are this season's final standings, based on March payroll (calculated within each league). Victories were calculated based on average wins of 81 per team, and average payroll per team; thus, the Dodgers losing negative 10 games

[Jay Wolt]

Dodgers have the largest payroll be far at $241 million & they look to be the strongest team out there.
Sometimes $$$ can buy results

[packs]

Just taking a quick look at the last ten World Series champs, here's where the teams ranked in payroll:

2013: Boston - 4th
2012: Giants - 8th
2011: Cards - 11th
2010: Giants - 10th
2009: Yanks - 1st
2008: Phils - 12th
2007: Boston - 2nd
2006: Cards - 11th
2005: White Sox - 13th
2004: Boston - 2nd

[Runscott]

You would think that if your payroll was one of the top 8 in the Majors, and you spent making 'average' decisions, you would be in the playoffs. At that point anyone can win. I wonder if any teams have used the philosophy of spending enough just to get in, but concentrating on team characteristics that historically result in playoff victories?

[packs]

Hard to say. Looking at this year's list it's interesting that the Nationals jumped from 12th in 2013 to 9th in 2014 and it resulted in a first place finish and playoff berth. But at the same time KC came in at 19th in 2013 and 2014 but the results this year are a likely wild card spot. Tampa Bay had the reverse. Was 28th last year but ended up with a wild card spot. Same position this year and not even close.

[nolemmings]

Nice to see that my beloved Twins are outperforming their projected finish as based on payroll--barely. Not even that close to 100 losses--94 max. Ha! Gardy for manager of the year.

[Scott36153]

Spending $$$ is just a way to get good (or supposedly good players) on your team to give your team a chance to make postseason. Paying big $$$ does not mean there won't be season ending injuries, locker room conflicts, too big to coach egos, etc etc etc.

[packs]

A couple interesting notes from recent winners:

Starting Rotation:

2013 Red Sox: 3 / 5 drafted by the Red Sox.

2012 Giants: 4 /5 drafted by Giants.

2011 Cards: only 1 /5 drafted by Cards


Starting Line Ups:

2013 Red Sox: 3 / 9 of the starting 9 were home grown

2012 Giants: 4 / 8 drafted by Giants

2011 Cards: 5 / 8 drafted by Cards


Seems like a team needs a solid core of home grown talent if they're going to contend.

[pgellis]

Another interesting stat to look at is "Cost Of Each Win". In other words, take the payroll that Scott laid out above and divide each teams total wins into that number. You then have "Cost Of Each Win". I did that using last night's updated standings.

TOP 10 MOST EXPENSIVE COST PER WIN:

1. Dodgers $ 2,649,762
2. Yankees $ 2,578,156
3. Phillies $ 2,493,348
4. Red Sox $ 2,237,397
5. Rangers $ 2,038,332
6. Tigers $ 1,853,165
7. BlueJays $ 1,597,872
8. Diamondbacks $ 1,774,584
9. Giants $ 1,743,990
10. Reds $ 1,539,558



LOWEST COST PER WIN

1. Marlins $ 557,825
2. Astros $ 651,968
3. A's $ 897,917
4. Pirates $ 905,186
5. Indians $ 993,985


Some interesting findings. Does "paying for wins" translate into making the playoffs? Well, of the Top 10 Most Expensive Wins teams, only 3 look to be making the playoffs this year: Dodgers (Most Expensive at $ 2.65 Million per Win), Tigers & Giants.

But, 2 of the Least Expensive Wins teams are also making the playoffs: A's & Pirates.

I also think that a factor involved in the teams with the highest payrolls and also the Most Expensive Per Win teams are due to recent success. Of the last 10 World Series Champions, 7 of those Championship Franchises are among the Top 10 Most Expensive Per Win teams.

5 teams spent more than $ 2 Mill. per win this season and 5 teams spent less than $ 1 Mill. this season. Of the 5 teams that spent more than $ 2 Mill. per win this season, only 1 will be making the playoffs: DODGERS.
But, 2 of the 5 teams that spent less than $ 1 Mill. per win will be making the playoffs: A's & Pirates.

[freakhappy]

Interesting stats, Scott...thanks for posting. Love the -10 for the Dodgers

We know it's impossible to determine what a team's record should be based on their payroll, but the two big factors IMO that will always make it for sure impossible to predict are injuries and bad signings. Some signings you really can't predict going south, but Prince Fielder and Justin Verlander are prime examples of players that aren't worth half of what they are being paid. I don't think many people saw Verlander falling off so quickly, but Fielder was somewhat evident with his decline over the past few years. Pujols, although he has had a nice year, is being paid mostly due to his past and not what he will do in the coming years. I think we all can agree his best years are behind him.

I really believe that some of these teams pay some of these overrated players the amount of money they do because they will undoubtedly bring in revenue from avenues other than their on-field performance...or maybe it is just plain fan reputation. I believe winning is a top priority, but let's be real here...money has to be a priority for every team, but some teams might even prefer money to winning.

[Runscott]

Originally Posted by freakhappy

I really believe that some of these teams pay some of these overrated players the amount of money they do because they will undoubtedly bring in revenue from avenues other than their on-field performance...or maybe it is just plain fan reputation. I believe winning is a top priority, but let's be real here...money has to be a priority for every team, but some teams might even prefer money to winning.

Huge point. If you re-ranked the teams based on $'s brought in per $ spent, some of the huge payrolls will certainly seem more valid.

For instance, average price per bobble head, per team, on ebay. I bet the Astros are near the bottom and the Yankees are at the top. Certainly a Jeter game-used item goes for more than the Altuve version.