baseball's falling popularity and its affect on our hobby

[honus94566]

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/10...opular-mlb-2nd

I realize this has been discussed before ad nauseum... but I saw this article this morning and thought the stats were interesting:

"Nine percent fewer fans call baseball their favorite sport over the 30-year span, the biggest drop of any sport."

It'll be interesting to see if, as the years continue to pass, if MLB is able to regain any market share or if popularity will continue to wane.

This can't be good news as far as "demand" for baseball cards, even vintage, goes. I'm OK with it though. Cheaper prices just mean I'll be able to afford more cards.

[JasonL]

one of those endless debates since there is no easy to obtain correct answer.
Everything runs in cycles...baseball had the top spot until the early 1980s and then it was replaced by basketball and now it's football. I seriously doubt that hockey will be next, but at some point, cultural preferences may very well return to baseball...but pretty tuff to say when,...

[z28jd]

I think the problem with comparing baseball and football is that their seasons barely overlap, so you're almost never forced to pick one over the other. Also, the % may go down, but the population during that time has risen from 237mil to 316mil so you're taking from a much large group.

The key numbers are the revenue and they set a record last year with over $8 billion, up from $7.5 B the year before and $7 B in 2011, so there is a steady growth.

Attendance in 2013 was just under the all-time high and the ten best years ever for attendance all happened in the last ten years.

Minor league baseball has been just as strong, with nine straight years over 41 million fans and they don't even include attendance from any of the rookie league teams(GCL/AZL/VSL/DSL).

[CW]

Originally Posted by z28jd

I think the problem with comparing baseball and football is that their seasons barely overlap, so you're almost never forced to pick one over the other. Also, the % may go down, but the population during that time has risen from 237mil to 316mil so you're taking from a much large group.

The key numbers are the revenue and they set a record last year with over $8 billion, up from $7.5 B the year before and $7 B in 2011, so there is a steady growth.

Attendance in 2013 was just under the all-time high and the ten best years ever for attendance all happened in the last ten years.

Minor league baseball has been just as strong, with nine straight years over 41 million fans and they don't even include attendance from any of the rookie league teams(GCL/AZL/VSL/DSL).

All good points. Adding to that, baseball as a global sport is also growing. Here in America we naturally tend to think we're the center of the universe, but baseball is very popular in other countries.

Now, how that affects our hobby is uncertain, as I don't think you'll find too many thirtysomethings in third world countries buying up Mickey Mantle rookie cards, unfortunately.

[MyGuyTy]

Tough to predict where this hobby is headed, however I will say one thing, it's a pretty safe bet that 25-30 years from now when this new generation is the driving force behind our economy nobody will be forking over $10,000 for a simple drum T206 card or "ghost" or "printing error". Guys that are in their late 30's to early 50's right now, who are the ones driving the prices, will either be retired and on a budget or dead. Baseball card "collecting" as a hobby is completely non-existent with today's kids. These are same kids who won't give a crap about collecting "vintage" cards 25-30 years from now and certainly won't be paying 10's of thousands of dollars for them.

You wanna know what will be the hot "collector" items of the next generation bringing ridiculous prices? Vintage video game consoles and 90's era Japanese sports cars. Just like we grew up with the hot item being baseball cards, those items that I mentioned will be what kids "collect" when they hit their 30's.

[EvilKing00]

Although im a HUGE football fan, If I had to choose my favorite, it would be baseball.

Football is extremely popular, and will probably continue to be the #1 sport in the US, due to many reasons. Beside it being a great sport, they have all the degenerate gamblers watching. Some guys I know barely know whos on what team, but they always know the spread.

Its also a lot less time consuming, not talking about the length of a game, but rather, there are only 16 games, Usually on a sunday when most people are off work.

As far as the hobby. Well, I don't know too many people who collect football cards, or at least more football than baseball. As for me, I have 3 football cards, Jerry Rice rookie, Payton Manning Rookie and emit smith rookie. As for baseball cards I have no clue how many I have many thousand would be my best guess.

I hardly ever watch baseball and am a completely casual fan of today's game, yet I love collecting baseball cards...particularly vintage cards. Yesterdays stars are iconic and in my mind largely unrelated to modern baseball. Whether our hobby will prosper or decline over the next couple generations is definitely debatable but I think it will more related to the decline of individuals collecting cards than a decline in the interest in modern baseball.

I think the iconic names in the hobby will probably persevere to a great extent, but will the next generation collector have the interest, and maybe more importantly the patience, to obtain T206 commons to try and complete the set?

[I Only Smoke 4 the Cards]

I am a HUGE Minnesota Vikings fan. My collection of Vikings memorabilia is much more significant than my baseball collection. That being said I find myself moving more towards baseball as I get older.

I think this is in part because I see football players my age, 27, already breaking down. Furthermore, the research about concussions has taken away some of the luster for me. I find myself asking if I would my kids to play football and I don't know. On the other hand I can see myself sharing baseball with them. It is an easy game to understand, the games are cheaper than the NFL and there is nothing quite like a game of catch.

As a collector I am more drawn to baseball because of the deep history of the hobby. It is cool to look at cards that are over 100 years old. It amazes me how much the game has stayed the same over the years. I think football will not be the same game in 20 years. However, I am not sure baseball will be either.

[wonkaticket]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Tough to predict where this hobby is headed, however I will say one thing, it's a pretty safe bet that 25-30 years from now when this new generation is the driving force behind our economy nobody will be forking over $10,000 for a simple drum T206 card or "ghost" or "printing error".

Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.

The thing I think people forget on pre-war is a lot of people who collect this niche are doing so for varied reasons. Many of which are scholarly and collection checklist driven not so much die hard baseball fans. How many of us remember seeing the pre-war players play or are reliving our youth thru pre-war cards? I myself don't even follow modern sports.

There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections and in doing so will want to obtain scarce, tough and even rare items for said collections and extreme prices will be paid in the process.

To announce that 25 years from now nobody will value rarities or scarce items is a silly concept. In terms of the mentioned examples T206 “Ghosts” and scarcer advertising backs. I agree the printing errors have certainly taken a new life from say 20 years ago.

I chalk this up to even more people today collecting this particular set wanting to own something unique. I also chalk it up to folks who have gone as far as they can with the T206 and are running out of things to collect. Meaning they have the set, they have the backs now they need something else to fill the void. When you add in a limited supply of printing errors to this mix of people you see today’s prices. This is a very good thing means there is a healthy amount of collectors on this issue.

In regards to the T206 scarcer brand backs they have always been more expensive or at least for the past 30+ years. Have prices jumped to more dramatic levels? Yes but once again more people and a limited supply along with a few key players and you have your prices. Could prices drop sure but they will drop to an all-time new hobby avg. Example not long ago you could get a Drum for say $1500 and that wasn’t long ago say 5-6 years ago. Even if they drop from 10k for the same card now they will drop to a higher number than ever before due to new historical prices being set within the collecting market. That’s just the nature of any hobby.

To answer the OP’s question I don’t think baseballs popularity will play a huge role in killing the niche we live in. However it will and has affected the modern market which is a gateway often to our niche and overtime could slim down new arrivals but that will take time.

We do have nostalgia on our side. No matter how boring modern baseball gets people will always look fondly upon the romantic version of our Nation’s past and look to own a part of that past.

Cheers,

John

[Cardboard Junkie]

Tulip Bulbs

[ValKehl]

I pretty much agree with everything Wonka John said. As I see it, our hobby will flourish as long as there are both lotsa baseball enthusiasts and lotsa people born with the "collector gene" - in other words, a very long time!
Val

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.

That's my whole point......20 years ago the hobby of baseball card collecting was enormous! Every kid was collecting, and those kids back then are in their 30's and 40's today diving up prices. Like I said, kids today who WILL be the ones with all the disposable income in 30 years won't be looking at the hobby like you or I am RIGHT NOW because this hobby of collecting and for the most part baseball in general is not what interests kids in the teens and early 20's.

The problem right now is simple, those of us today in our late 30's to early 50's (me included) with the money to overpay, don't wanna hear that our $10,000 overbid for a simple T206 Drum or Uzit or "Ghost" or "Freak" or "Misprint" or what ever cool name we wanna come up with, will not be worth ANYWHERE near what we're paying now in 25-30 years. I always try to be smart and look ahead to the future of my money, but sometimes a card I "need" for my collection makes me lose focus of the bigger picture, lol. This is very much chess not checkers with the future of this hobby. It truly is a niche hobby, and "niche" hobbies are the first to expire when the new generation doesn't have any interest what so ever with this "niche". I have 3 sons spread out over different grades up to 8th grade...........and not a single kid I've ever come across at their schools has any interest in collecting baseball cards. I asked all 3 of my sons and they've told me nobody is school collects baseball cards anymore. Go into any Target or Wally World and try to find baseball cards....they're all sitting on a small shelf in a small distant area of the store collecting dust. That's the future of this hobby.

[z28jd]

There are some segments of this hobby, where it takes just two people to drive prices crazy, so it is impossible to guess future prices and what will be popular. I've seen prices of certain teams in the Old Judge set take off because a couple people both decided they wanted them at the same time and I've seen other teams level off/drop when one people decided to stop collecting and sell their cards.

If some multi-millionaire decides tomorrow he wants every T206 with an EPDG back, then the market will take off on them. You can't predict down the line if that will happen or not.

[wonkaticket]

Sorry “MyGuyTy” but I disagree. It also has nothing to do with what I may or may not have overpaid for either as there are anomalies in every hobby. Every collector has items he has too much in that’s called collecting.

My point above is that 20 years ago records were set and folks said that is silly, then 10 years ago folks said that is silly, then 5 years ago….and so on and so on…..

As I said above this hobby is not driven by modern shiny trading card business. That business is dead and dying even the retail space dedicated to such is being cut. Yet our hobby is having record highs and growth, am I to believe this is all driven by 50 year old men with cash to burn? No there is young blood in this hobby I’m 38 not young but not a baby boomer. There are even younger collectors here spending big money.

This whole nobody collects cards at high school so we are all doomed is just silly. Art and music programs are almost dead in schools also but we still have fine art collecting and rock stars. Just because it’s not a Leave it to Beaver episode on every corner in America and kids aren’t out playing stick ball by the fire hydrants and flipping cards against the walls does not mean our hobby is dead. The pre-war section has had very little drive from the baby boomers looking to relive what mom tossed out.

If anything the hobby has become more sophisticated and because of the digital age we live in even more obscure avenues of card collecting have emerged, and even more people can be exposed to the hobby.

Cheers,

John

Edited to add “MyTyGuy” your view of the people who drive our hobby is very narrow not everyone who collects any type of antiques has to have started that journey as a kid, nor do they have to have an affinity for the subject matter they collect either. Also the hobby is not driven solely by multi-millionaires either. Not every sale is a record sale….lots of sub $100 pre-war cards are sold to normal people every day.

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

That's my whole point......20 years ago the hobby of baseball card collecting was enormous! Every kid was collecting, and those kids back then are in their 30's and 40's today diving up prices. Like I said, kids today who WILL be the ones with all the disposable income in 30 years won't be looking at the hobby like you or I am RIGHT NOW because this hobby of collecting and for the most part baseball in general is not what interests kids in the teens and early 20's.

The problem right now is simple, those of us today in our late 30's to early 50's (me included) with the money to overpay, don't wanna hear that our $10,000 overbid for a simple T206 Drum or Uzit or "Ghost" or "Freak" or "Misprint" or what ever cool name we wanna come up with, will not be worth ANYWHERE near what we're paying now in 25-30 years. I always try to be smart and look ahead to the future of my money, but sometimes a card I "need" for my collection makes me lose focus of the bigger picture, lol. This is very much chess not checkers with the future of this hobby. It truly is a niche hobby, and "niche" hobbies are the first to expire when the new generation doesn't have any interest what so ever with this "niche". I have 3 sons spread out over different grades up to 8th grade...........and not a single kid I've ever come across at their schools has any interest in collecting baseball cards. I asked all 3 of my sons and they've told me nobody is school collects baseball cards anymore. Go into any Target or Wally World and try to find baseball cards....they're all sitting on a small shelf in a small distant area of the store collecting dust. That's the future of this hobby.

Keep in mind, many of us grew up in the 80's and 90's and took an absolute pounding spending our lunch money hoarding Will Clark, Bo Jackson, Frank Thomas, and Ken Griffey Jr. RC's and look how that turned out for us. Yet here we are back at it again, but this time a little wiser and with a little more money in our pockets.

There is something uniquely American about collecting baseball cards, and I'm cautiously optimistic that next generation collectors will simply be late bloomers. To be honest collecting vintage/pre-war cards is much simpler than collecting modern cards where every player has an infinite number of "RC's" and an equally ridiculous number of insert cards amongst the vast array of product. In vintage it's easy. A Hank Aaron RC is his '54 Topps, its finite, its simple and I think that's what a lot of people enjoy about vintage cards and what will get next generation's collector into the hobby.

Having said this, it would be extremely helpful if the hobby was given a new jolt of energy. I personally think a reality show like 'American Pickers' focused on sportscards and memorabilia could do wonders in generating interest and new collectors moving forward.

[EvilKing00]

Originally Posted by wonkaticket

Really? I think the same thing was said 20+ years ago about the same cards just with different prices.

The thing I think people forget on pre-war is a lot of people who collect this niche are doing so for varied reasons. Many of which are scholarly and collection checklist driven not so much die hard baseball fans. How many of us remember seeing the pre-war players play or are reliving our youth thru pre-war cards? I myself don't even follow modern sports.

There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections and in doing so will want to obtain scarce, tough and even rare items for said collections and extreme prices will be paid in the process.

To announce that 25 years from now nobody will value rarities or scarce items is a silly concept. In terms of the mentioned examples T206 “Ghosts” and scarcer advertising backs. I agree the printing errors have certainly taken a new life from say 20 years ago.

I chalk this up to even more people today collecting this particular set wanting to own something unique. I also chalk it up to folks who have gone as far as they can with the T206 and are running out of things to collect. Meaning they have the set, they have the backs now they need something else to fill the void. When you add in a limited supply of printing errors to this mix of people you see today’s prices. This is a very good thing means there is a healthy amount of collectors on this issue.

In regards to the T206 scarcer brand backs they have always been more expensive or at least for the past 30+ years. Have prices jumped to more dramatic levels? Yes but once again more people and a limited supply along with a few key players and you have your prices. Could prices drop sure but they will drop to an all-time new hobby avg. Example not long ago you could get a Drum for say $1500 and that wasn’t long ago say 5-6 years ago. Even if they drop from 10k for the same card now they will drop to a higher number than ever before due to new historical prices being set within the collecting market. That’s just the nature of any hobby.

To answer the OP’s question I don’t think baseballs popularity will play a huge role in killing the niche we live in. However it will and has affected the modern market which is a gateway often to our niche and overtime could slim down new arrivals but that will take time.

We do have nostalgia on our side. No matter how boring modern baseball gets people will always look fondly upon the romantic version of our Nation’s past and look to own a part of that past.

Cheers,

John

"There have always been collectors, there will always be collectors. Because of this collectors will accumulate collections"

Great Line and so true!

[MyGuyTy]

Let's not forget either, guys in the 60's, 70's and 80's NEVER thought stamp collecting would disappear because it was so popular for so many decades........yeah we see where that one ended up.

[thehoodedcoder]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

You wanna know what will be the hot "collector" items of the next generation bringing ridiculous prices? Vintage video game consoles and 90's era Japanese sports cars. Just like we grew up with the hot item being baseball cards, those items that I mentioned will be what kids "collect" when they hit their 30's.

i think about this alot. i have two atari 400s and some pretty rare games from what i can see. i think one is even a proto type. its on a tape casette.

there is a lot of room out there in this market. its tough to even find a vintage game price guide, though they do exist.

sometimes i feel like i should get into it a little bit because i think over the long haul the prices will grow and it could be a good investment.

kevin

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by thehoodedcoder

i think about this alot. i have two atari 400s and some pretty rare games from what i can see. i think one is even a proto type. its on a tape casette.

there is a lot of room out there in this market. its tough to even find a vintage game price guide, though they do exist.

sometimes i feel like i should get into it a little bit because i think over the long haul the prices will grow and it could be a good investment.

kevin

I don't really have much interest in them, but my brother in law has already amassed around 15-20 vintage game consoles from the late 70's to early 90's. Atari, commodore, Telstar, Bally, intellivision, original Sega, original Nintendo, turbographx, CD-i, Neo Geo etc. and he continues to get ridiculous offers well into the thousands from collectors to buy his old systems. He knows this is just the beginning of the vintage console hobby so he's not selling anytime soon.

[teetwoohsix]

Originally Posted by MyGuyTy

Tough to predict where this hobby is headed, however I will say one thing, it's a pretty safe bet that 25-30 years from now when this new generation is the driving force behind our economy nobody will be forking over $10,000 for a simple drum T206 card or "ghost" or "printing error". Guys that are in their late 30's to early 50's right now, who are the ones driving the prices, will either be retired and on a budget or dead. Baseball card "collecting" as a hobby is completely non-existent with today's kids. These are same kids who won't give a crap about collecting "vintage" cards 25-30 years from now and certainly won't be paying 10's of thousands of dollars for them.

You wanna know what will be the hot "collector" items of the next generation bringing ridiculous prices? Vintage video game consoles and 90's era Japanese sports cars. Just like we grew up with the hot item being baseball cards, those items that I mentioned will be what kids "collect" when they hit their 30's.

This post is why I posted that article about baseball card collecting from 1974, I figured it was an interesting way to gauge where the hobby was 40 years ago (I was about 3 years old when that article was written) and where it is at today. Seeing that I think a higher percentage of people on the board are in the 40(ish) range, many of them were around that young when the article was written as well. There are many on the board who were probably collecting then, and may refer to it as "the good ol' days"

An interesting thing to do would be to also take a look at salaries, attendance figures,etc. from 40 years back- if you think these things have to do with the longevity of the hobby- and compare both status of the hobby then and game attendance figures, salaries, etc. and see how they both stack up compared to now, in 2014. In that article, the Honus Wagner T206 was also considered "The Holy Grail" of baseball cards.......and cited a recent sale of a whopping $1,500.00!!

Sincerely, Clayton

[Tabe]

Originally Posted by JasonL

baseball had the top spot until the early 1980s and then it was replaced by basketball and now it's football.

Basketball has never been the #1 sport in America. At its highest, it's gotten to #3. Baseball and football have always outpaced it in popularity, ratings, attendance, everything.

[MyGuyTy]

Originally Posted by Tabe

Basketball has never been the #1 sport in America. At its highest, it's gotten to #3. Baseball and football have always outpaced it in popularity, ratings, attendance, everything.

Basketball has never and will never appeal to me. I have nothing in common with that sport. For me it's baseball, football and hockey........I do enjoy F1 as well

[Hot Springs Bathers]

Last Saturday night I attended a fundraiser for a local high school/American Legion program. The speakers included three former major leaguers and there were four college coaches in attendance.

It was attended by 250 folks on a cold, cold night in Arkansas. I think baseball is alive and well. Parents are pulling the kids away from football because of the injury publicity and soccer is not in our DNA.

The NFL is not itself any favors with its' own network where the English language is not used well by former or current players and sportsmanship seems to be unimportant!

[Nashvol]

Last Thursday night I attended a sold-out banquet of 600+ here in Nashville with an ex-major leaguer as speaker, and nine other ex-major league players and four D1 college coaches in attendance, too.

Today we had a ground-breaking ceremony for a new ballpark for the AAA Nashville Sounds with a major league GM, the president of the minor leagues, and two current major league players attending. Even in 20-degree weather, the crowd exceeded all expectations.

In Music City, baseball is indeed alive and well...

[gregr2]

50,000 at Yankee stadium today to watch the Rangers and Devils.

[glynparson]

I have not read the whole thread but few things stand out. 1 we are living longer and healthier into our older ages, you do not think this will help values stay up for a longer period? I know I do. Secondly my daughter is 7 and she tells me most of the boys in her class collect either football, baseball, gaming, or non sport cards of some sort. This idea that no kids collect cards is simply not true. I have 2 friends that own sports card shops in eastern PA and both tell me they have a number of kids that buy cards. Not in the numbers they did in our day but they don't need to. As log as those buying maintain a passion for the hobby we will be ok. Like Wonka said I have been hearing the sky will fall and all prices will crash since the late 70's. We have had some market corrections but most quality vintage things are worth more now than they used to be. And lastly we have a large growing Latino population and as they get more entrenched in America and their economic power grows I see this as positive for Baseball and vintage baseball items. Their culture is very pro baseball as is the Asian culture and as some have pointed out we live in a much more global society and it does not take many buyers to drive up prices on scarce items.

[EvilKing00]

The average age of the forum is 42 so lets say we all have 40 more years or so, give or take. So we know the hobby will continue to thrive over the next 40 or so years. Now lets take the current 20 year old, just getting out of school and struggling with bills. In 20 years they will be 40 and doing much better, married, prob a kid or 2. What will that 40 year old guy do with any spare time he has for a hobby? (now not every one will become a collector) Sure some will get into old cars some coins and yes some old cardboard.

I also think that with the internet, even more a regular item in todays world. Buying a card, weather its a new card or a T205 is only a click away.

And as far as baseball being popular, lol its doin just fine.

[the 'stache]

Funny, in yesterday's Dallas Morning News, I read an article that tv viewership for many of the most popular NFL teams was down--way down. Ratings for Dallas Cowboy games have dropped over 10%, and while you can try to explain it by their three straight 8-8 finishes, they're not the only big time franchise witnessing a drop. The Packers have witnessed a nearly 10% drop, too, as have a few other teams (which teams, and how much I do not recall, but I was surprised when I read the details). And the Packers, beyond this injury-plagued season, have been one of the top teams in the NFL, going 47-17 with a Super Bowl win the previous four seasons.

And I think this article was stupid. It's like asking a heterosexual male "do you like blonds, brunettes or redheads most?" If I had to choose one, I prefer blonds most of all, but I love brunettes and redheads, too. And I'm not going to stop looking at beautiful women who don't have blond hair. A beautiful woman is a beautiful woman. So, are brunettes going to suddenly start lining the pathways to monasteries because they're not "America's favorite?" Of course not. Trying to theorize that baseball is somehow in trouble because it's not the #1 choice is just a little absurd, imho. I know that Major League Baseball's attendance was down 2.9% in 2013. But keeping things in perspective, baseball had its sixth highest attendance ever this last year. 74,026,895 people went through the turnstiles.

Maybe MLB doesn't occupy the nation's attention the way it once did. As I've said before, there are more sports now, and a lot more entertainment choices. But I hardly think that the sport, or the hobby, is dying. The numbers simply do not support this hypothesis, and when a hack sports media outlet like ESPN tries to suggest that baseball is somehow "slipping", I just laugh.

[EvilKing00]

Originally Posted by the 'stache

I know that Major League Baseball's attendance was down 2.9% in 2013.

All great points stash, and also lets not forget, the economy has sucked over the last 7 years. People are out of work, less funds to spend on going to games and even less to spend on hobbies. The economy will eventually get better and more people will have more money to spend.

[the 'stache]

Originally Posted by EvilKing00

All great points stash, and also lets not forget, the economy has sucked over the last 7 years. People are out of work, less funds to spend on going to games and even less to spend on hobbies. The economy will eventually get better and more people will have more money to spend.

That's true, Steve.

The attendance figures don't take into consideration people like me who can't go to the ballpark, but still subscribe to something like MLB.tv. I watch probably 100 games a year.

Yay for being a Brewers fan living in Texas. No blackouts.

[mrvster]

but the whole time the economy has worsened, the T206 market has been appreciating over that time......the whole time...

The wagner has never declined in value, only steadily risen over the last 100+ years!! T206 stay strong due to the Wagner correlation also .......

This is a strong area of vintage cardboard....a blue chip if you will

[freakhappy]

Well said, Ian!


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