Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

[grundle20]

Hi there - I wanted to spark a debate.

I'm 31 and started collecting 1948 Leafs. I do it because I enjoy it and though it's a pricy set, I like the "pop art" feel of the cards. However, among my peers, it seems I'm on an island when it comes to baseball cards. My generation (X) were the kiddos in the late 80s racing to buy cards, that's all we did in between playing sandlot games. I remember the packs of cards front and center in EVERY package store.

Not only do kids younger than me not even play sandlot pickup games anymore (unless you count an impromptu game on PS3), but they're not buying packs of cards and they're not that "into" baseball, and I say this as a whole. Sure there are young kids at shows and sure there are some young collectors, but I say this as a widespread phenomenon.

I wonder when these kids are 40, 50, 60, etc. and have the buying power to go after a set like a 48 Leaf, will it even cross their minds? Is baseball even that much of a widespread interest? I'm saying this as myself probably the younger side (again, age 31) of expensive set collecting. I don't even see the POTENTIAL for interest.

Although I realize posting in a baseball card forum is bias to begin with, because we're all collectors and we probably think card collecting is the bee's knees, but I wonder, looking 50 years down the road, is lack of demand going to make a 1948 Leaf Set, with "short print" not even meaning anything to anyone in my generation, going to be commanding the prices they command today?

I'm just looking for some intelligent banter on the matter! And yes, as a young new collector for high-priced cards, I do have a vested interest in what you are all saying, because though I enjoy collecting, I would like to have some value to trade in decades to come!

[barrysloate]

It's pretty hard to look fifty years down the road, and there is a real concern that the hobby is getting smaller. And you are correct that most young kids today don't collect baseball cards. That aside, I think as kids grow into adults they often find pleasure in collecting things. I think there will always be collectors of baseball cards, but I am less confident the hobby will continue to grow the way it has in recent years. If you like to collect do so, and try not to focus too much on the investment part of it.

[Bicem]

I think cards will always have their place as a piece of American history and thus there will always be demand. To what degree compared to today I have no idea.

Stamp and coin collecting still exists, and I would think kids have much less interest in these things than baseball.

People just like to collect things.

[Matt]

I believe anything post WWII is due for a correction as the generation who saw those players leaves us and takes their market demand with them. There will still be demand as Mantle, Mays and Aaron are classic players, but the market demand will be smaller.

[DixieBaseball]

Are Baseball Cards Destined to Slowly Diminish in Value?

I would answer no (pre-war stuff). As long as folks have disposable income, and there are humans with collecting genes, this hobby will survive. I do believe it is cyclical to some degree, as when times are robust, the hobby has growth spurts, then settles down a bit. Of course the very scarce to rare market for cards to me has never been stronger. (They ain't making anymore of it!)

[Mark]

Let me begin by pointing out that all human things are bound to pass away. Having said that, I don't think that baseball card collecting is necessarily going to fade away soon. As to the sport's popularity, it really depends on where you live. It remains huge in the northeast USA. Where I live, the southwest, baseball is clearly the most popular participatory sport for kids under 12. It's really thriving in places like southern Calf., Nevada, and Arizona. It is true that card collecting is not so popular, but it is bound to remain attractive to substantial numbers of people because, as was said, people like to collect stuff, and because baseball cards are readily collectable.

[vintagecpa]

With pre-WWII cards, the economy helps or hurts their value more than demographics. Nearly every person will have some type of appreciation for a Ty Cobb or Babe Ruth card. I think you already see a softening of the cards in the late 50's and 60's. With many of those sets, the Mantle and the hi # series are the only cards with any type of demand. I would suspect that 30 years from now, my son would be more inclined to want to own a Cy Young instead of a Sandy Koufax. Much of the demand for the 50's and 60's stars is from the aging baby boomers that grew up watching them. I am curious what the 1952 Topps Mantle will sell for in 30 years when most collectors would have never seen him play.

[CharleyBrown]

I truly believe people will still collect. Heck, if you asked me 3 years ago if I'd start collecting again, I'd say you were crazy... and yet here I am more interested in the hobby than ever.

As a HS teacher, I have found that 95% of my male students are very much into baseball, and all sports in general. I asked them about baseball cards, and a majority said they collected when they were younger. One expressed to me that he would love to one day own a Ted Williams RC.. another mentioned Lou Gehrig...

The interest is out there... its just very different than our generation (I'll be 30 this month) in that baseball card shops and even shows are not as common, and the internet seems to be the major marketplace.

[Cardboard Junkie]

Aloha! I have collected cards since the fifties. My brother since the forties. We both agree that the "hobby" was waaaay more fun when cards were'nt worth a bunch of cash. I remember turning down 500 different t-206's in the late sixties for a dollar a piece.....5 hundred for 5 hundred. I remember being shocked when first hearing of a single card selling for 100 bucks. I remember buying a complete 53 topps set for $30.00. I remember in the late eighties 52 topps high #s for 5 bucks a piece in some dealers books.
This hobby has become more like coins and stamps since grading companies have sprung up. Also in this economy (which I don't think will ever recover) card prices will decline drastically. In a post apocolyptic world all of us would trade our complete collections for food or water or medications or ammuntion, if we needed it.
That being said, I will still continue to collect but "at my back I always hear time's winged chariot hurrying near". I suspect someday soon, perhaps in my lifetime our beautiful cardboard wafers will be valueless. I buy now only rarely. And only if I don't need the $.........meantime I am cashing in on many of my duplicates to "get ready when the fan hits the poop". Food, water, shelter, clothing, meds, and guns and ammo....thats the way to go. PS check out the history of the great "tulip bulb mania" to see what will become of this hobby. Mahalo, Just my thoughts.
(graded cards suck.....raw is the way to go)

[barrysloate]

Cardboard Junkie- interesting that you feel the economy will never recover. While I'm not sure that's true, the same thought has crossed my mind too. America is changing drastically, and we will all need to learn how to cope with these changes. Of course if it is in fact true then I would not put much faith in baseball cards as an investment.

My guess is the economy will get better, but it is still many years away. What we are experiencing now is not ending any time soon.

[bbcard1]

I don't care much. I am collecting for me. The fact that there will be some value to my hobby is a bonus. If I bowled three nights a week or played weekend softball tournaments, there would be no residual value from my hobby.

i don't think I would put $10,000 into cards for a long term investment, but put considerable money into it for the immediate return of owning (at least for a while) something I enjoy.

[fkw]

Same questions have been brought up for last 25 years... yet the values have always gone up.
If someone would have told me 25 years ago that people in the future would be paying 4 figures for a common topps card in MINT condition (PSA registry hype), I would have laughed in their face!! ......these same exact cards sold in the $1 bin in any card show back then.

Some prices are just plain crazy IMO, but collectors collect what they want, and their is alot of extra $$ out there to be spent.

PS 1949 Leaf

[glchen]

I think the prices of modern cards won't hold up even with the chase cards. I think it's going to be function of supply and demand. There are just too many shiny cards out there. Even a Jeter or Pujols rookie, there are thousands upon thousands of those cards. For the chase refractors like the Strasburg phenomenon last year, I think people will realize that those cards really aren't that valuable. I think people will continue to collect, but they will still be drawn into prewar and vintage cards since the supply is so much less than modern. Therefore, I think these older cards will still hold their value. Now, I don't know if they can continue a strong uptrend like before. I think you could have purchased a T206 Green Cobb 10-15 years ago during the dot com boom still considerably less than you can right now with high unemployment. There may still be gradual appreciation, but I don't know if you can still expect exponential growth like before. I also don't know about card condition at the high end. There is so little difference between PSA 8 and 10 (or SGC or whatever), is the price difference really worth it? That I don't know.

[Bicem]

Good points raised by Matt and Mike about the baby boomers and 50's/60's stuff, couldn't agree more. I suspect the appeal of 50/60's stuff is that these collectors also collected these same sets when they were kids. While the appeal of prewar has more to do with early baseball history.

[barrysloate]

Well there is history in 1950's cards too. Aren't Mays, Aaron, and Mantle, among others, part of baseball history? Sure, the 50's and 60's cards got a huge boost from baby boomers, who are now at an age where more will leave the hobby than enter. But a 1952 Topps set, always a classic, is approaching 60 years old and is also a part of history.

Sure, I think E, T, and N cards have a better chance to increase in value than Topps and Bowman, but I find it hard to believe that the better sets from this latter era won't be avidly collected in the future.

[Bicem]

Originally Posted by barrysloate

Well there is history in 1950's cards too. Aren't Mays, Aaron, and Mantle, among others, part of baseball history? Sure, the 50's and 60's cards got a huge boost from baby boomers, who are now at an age where more will leave the hobby than enter. But a 1952 Topps set, always a classic, is approaching 60 years old and is also a part of history.

Definitely a big part of history Barry, as will be 70's/80's/90's cards too. Just personally think that the new vintage collector entering the hobby 20 years from now and with no personal ties to 50/60's (such as collecting it as a kid or seeing these players play), will naturally gravitate towards the older, more diverse stuff. Maybe for no other reason than the perception that older is usually better when it comes to collectibles.

[mcadams]

I disagree with Cardboard Junkie that the world is coming to an end. Economic downturns always bring out the "fear factor" in people. Guns and ammo sales always spike during economic downturns. Although you can't see the light at the end of the tunnel yet, its there. Unemployment will once again be below 6%, people will feel foolish for having 5 handguns at their house and 2 years worth of canned soup in the basement, and people will feel "normal again".

[mcap100176]

The Wall Street Journal had an article on youth baseball participation earlier this year:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000..._share_twitter

As someone who has worked in local government for 10 years, I can say without any hesitation more kids are playing soccer. Why? More action, cheaper and the games are shorter. When they kids are getting older and decide what game they like best (and what they are good at), they follow in that direction.

Concerning economy, it will recover. When there was the change from agrarian to industrial society, there was economic issues. We are in the midst of a change from industrial (manufacturing) to service delivery. People need to be retrained and re-educated.

Concerning cards, I see the market as more "collectibles" than cards. Show someone an REA catalog and they will read it cover to cover. It just takes a spark to get them involved.

The internet IS the marketplace. I got back into the hobby 4 years ago (I am 34) and have never been to a show or card store.

[joeadcock]

Michael

I appreciate what you say. I am not enthusiastic at all that unemployment will drop below 6%. In fact, I suspect long term it will stick around 9-10%, maybe worse.The healthcare system will no doubt have a huge negative impact on our economy. I know, I work in it all week. However, your positivity certainly at least gives me some hope. In the health care field(I dont know, you may work in it), we are not enthusiastic at all.

On the other hand, agree with Frank. I suspect prewar Baseball will only climb, though perhaps slowly.

[barrysloate]

Jeff- I think there are many post-war sets, such as 1949 Bowman, 1952 Topps, 1953 Bowman, and 1957 to name a few, that will always be widely collected. Will they be as popular as T206? Perhaps not. But they will have their supporters.

[tcdyess]

With the possibility of the dollar being outed, maybe the IMF could use cards as the new base currency!! No wait, they would have to be foreign cards...... Ughhhhhhh.......

[hangman62]

Interesting topic... It does make some sense to think 20-30 yrs from now.... the 40-50 yr olds will want the stuff they grew up with/or admired as kids....which then makes sense to say...Why would that collector be into 30s/40s cards.
I know a fairly major dealer who always says...the kid stuff like Pokeyman and Pogs,etc... that junk will be valuable( again) some day..when those kids get to the age of having the extra cash and want to go back and find that stuff that they loved as kids.

The other side of the coin is,...in the present time,why do collectors in their 30s40s collect Goudey cards .when they never knew or admired Cochrane,Dickey,Waner,etc...as kids growing up

[Exhibitman]

I don't want to take an overly bleak view; I mean, 10% unemployment is 90% employment, right? Certain people collect stuff. Like all of us. Baseball remains hugely popular and a part of American cultural history. It will always be a subject of collection. The only question is whether we've seen a peak to the market for cards. I think we've seen a peak for a while with the pre-2008 prices. I think we've seen the short term bottom some time last year. I think it will take years for prices to rebound--but they will go on. It will beat down some collectors who have to get out now but those who can hold long term and who won't need the money have no reason to panic. Personally, I am liquidating my high grade postwar cards and rebuying the same cards in 'collector' grades for a fraction of the price, and finding that I enjoy having them raw in albums far more than slabbed in stacks, and I can get far more cards for tbe buck to enjoy. That's my adjustment to the new normal; don't expect others will agree.

Another reality is that there are several eras of collection that have very little to do with one another. Anything older than WWII is one epoch, the boomer era cards are another--say post WWII to 1973. The 1970s to 1980 are another. The rest is modern. I do not see any real value to post 1980 base sets. You can have them all for the asking for pennies a card.

[rainier2004]

@hangman...Im 34 and I love the 1915 cj and 34 goudey set more gthan any other cards and I started collecting when I was 5 or so. BB cards were a HUGE part of childhood as my father took me to shows and he eventually started collecting.

Now, when I get my 48 bowman mmcoskey or my 1915 cj alexander I feel like a kid again. I open it, have a special place for the new addition, show it to the wife, talk over and over again about it...I feel like a kid again EVEN if I never saw the guy play. Its our history, who we are. Im basically willing to do this b/c most adults havent felt like a kid in a LOOOOOng time and I think thats a shame. I hope my collection stays valuable but at the same time Ive received more value from it than any amount of $$$ could give me. We just need more kids to feel like kids and get them away from all the electronics.

[Delray Vintage]

i do collect and consider what I buy to be investments. I only buy Cards that are timeless and will be known 100 years from now. That means Pre 1900 and pre war. I think Cobb, Ruth, Mantle, DiMaggio, Wagner will be enduring figures always popular with adult collectors. While kids today are not huge fans I think baseball will remain part of Americana and will be collectible. I am assuming they will keep up with inflation plus some upside depending on the economy.

Adult rich folks will want that high grade Cobb regardless of their affection for modern baseball. i no longer watch games anymore but love the history of the game and collect from the era I never was part of seeing personally.

[bh3443]

(graded cards suck.....raw is the way to go)[/QUOTE]

Great comments here. While were discussing this, I was thinking of the thousands of graded cards that sell for a few dollars each. I see that the lowest PSA price is 5.00 (and shipping) for 100 or more cards valued under $100.00 each. Look on ebay or at a show and you'll see decent graded cards such as 50's-70's commons/hi's, stars selling and sometimes not selling for a few dollars.
Who's taking the huge hit on the grading fees? How long can it go on with people losing money like this?
I like PSA but at this point I feel it's just a nice expensive holder for cards!

[grundle20]

Bill - I think you're right in many instances. Think about WHY PSA allows cards valued under $100 bucks to be graded for five bucks. I mean, the market for the people buying cards under $100 bucks, how much of a margin is there really for a dealer to buy a raw, get it graded, and *pray* that with some stroke of luck that card comes back a 6 or higher. Any card with a value under $100 dollars, at the $5 grade PLUS insurance and shipping they make you pay, I mean, geez, you just ate up at least 7-9% of the card's value when it's under $100 to begin with!

Clearly, the exceptions are getting rare, desired cards graded. Why? Again, the price of grading those cards are not 7-9% of the value. Heck, grading cards like that could be half a percent or 1% of value, or even LESS. Clearly, having an amazingly valuable card graded for the "high rollers" of the hobby is worth it's weight.

That's my two cents - it's a question of grading as a factor of card value. If those mathematics come to 5% of card price or higher, forget it, you need to sell at a margin that's not worth the time, cost and effort.

[campyfan39]

Great thread! I think many of us will pass the love for the history to our kids. I love 50's and 60's cards because my dad did. I am doing everything I can to get my kids into it as well!

[ls7plus]

Chris, I think that is terrific! Hope you have tons of fun together!

Sincerely,

Larry