Sportscards and Inflation

[cmcclelland]

Anyone have any insights into the performance of the sportscards market during a period of high inflation. I'm 41, so during the late 70's and early 80's, I was just buying cards in packs at the local store. I don't have a feel for how prices performed for the higher end sports collectibles market.

Just curious if anyone can recount how cards performed back then, and whether anyone has an opinion as to how cards might perform in the future if inflation gets out of control as many think it will.

[teetwoohsix]

Just an interesting note...in the mid 1980's,a Honus Wagner T206 was valued in Lew Lipset's Encyclopedia Of Baseball Cards Vol.3 at $22,000.00, Plank at $4,500.00,Magie at $2,000.00..........T205 Hoblitzell (no stats) at $200.00......
I know this doesn't answer the question,but it seems as though T cards-maybe pre war cards in general,seem to appreciate more and more as the years go on-through bad and good economic times.

Look at the realized prices of the above mentioned cards now........

[steve B]

Late 70's early 80's is a tough time to compare to for this hobby, and probably also for several others. For baseball cards it was the time when the hobby really got some attention and had a lot of growth. It had been around for a long time, but hadn't caught on like it did then.

More established hobbies would be a better indicator, but there was odd stuff happening in some of those as well. In coins the metal markets and the hunt brothers attempt at cornering the market on silver made things very strange. Prices went sky high since many were tied to some degree to the metal used. Then when silver collapsed so did a load of prices.

Stamps had huge price increases, but many of them were essentially false. The price guide had price increases shown to justify the sale of a 5-6 volume set every year. And buying at half catalog value was typical. (Stamp values are far more closely related to catalog values than card values) Eventially it got silly and the price guide basically halved almost everything one year so they could get back to "reality" What a mess that was! Everyone still wanted to buy at half catalog, but the new catalog was half what it had been. A tough time for all, and it took years to recover. It's back to half catalog now, but only for the average stuff. Grading has come to stamps, along with crazy prices for top examples of even very common items. And the really good stuff usually brings over the catalog price.


Through all this, the truly rare stuff and high demand items always did fairly well. If there's less than say 10 of something, or if it's something nearly everyone wants the price guide isn't really useful. Plus with everything costing more paying more for collectibles looks more reasonable.


Steve

[Exhibitman]

Cards are like any other hard asset in times of high inflation. If you're really betting on hyperinflation, forget cards and buy gold and silver.

[cmcclelland]

I agree that gold and silver will be the best place to be if we see hyperinflation. I'm just trying to decide whether quality, investment grade sportscards will also fair well in a time of hyperinflation.

For example, right now a PSA 8 1933 Goudey Ruth is going for around $17,000 and an ounce of silver is around $17. If silver goes to $30, I doubt the Ruth will go to $30,000. But what would happen to the Ruth? I mean part of me wonders if the collectibles market might get crushed and prices might go down because people essentially don't have any money to spend.

[jeffmohler]

If you will bear with a personal story....

I was eleven in 1979. I had a paper route and saved up some money that I wanted to put into my stamp collection. As I recall, a local dealer had a US #1 for sale for $77.00. I pleaded with my dad to let me buy it. In front of the dealer I said "but Dad it will cost more later" the dealer laughed and said "Pop, the kid is learning young!"

My guess is that hard assets (including collectibles) will do fine through a bout of inflation. In a bout of hyperinflation - who knows - assuming the rule of law doesn't disappear!

[Exhibitman]

Just remember: cards will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no cards.

[mark evans]

Originally Posted by Exhibitman

Just remember: cards will get you through times of no money better than money will get you through times of no cards.

The Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers live. Looking forward to seeing you in Baltimore.

Mark

[M's_Fan]

I think we have seen a big spike in card prices due to baby boomers getting older and spending their savings on things like cards that remind them of their childhood. More boomers are retiring, at home with their computers, buying cards that they only dreamed of as a kid.

This could continue for a few more years, but I actually worry about cards holding value in the long long term. I volunteer with the Boy Scouts and spend a fair amount of time around teenage boys. The kids I know today have never collected baseball cards, and in fact aren't interested in baseball at all, and I really don't see them as future collectors that will keep prices high.

The NFL and NBA are kicking baseball's ass, and I don't see future collectors in the kids I see today. I'm not saying that we are collecting beanie babies that will be worthless, but I just don't expect to see the huge growth that we've seen, and we could actually see decline in the long long term. That said, I think we're safe for at least 10-15 years.

[GasHouseGang]

I agree that the kids today don't seem to collect baseball cards. What I've observed at my local "baseball card/comic book" shop is that they are in there buying the game cards or the comic books. There is some action with the sports cards, but it's not usually the kids. It's generally an older person that's spending money on the sports cards. The store supports a tournament game night on Thursday evenings and there is always a bunch of kids there for that. I've seen them buy boxes of the game cards on those evenings. So the kids have money, they just don't want to spend it on baseball cards. That has been my casual observation.

[glynparson]

As they get older and their kids move out and they have more disposable income I think many will look back to cards. I do not feel that they only have a 10-15 year window. Heck I hope to be around a lot longer then that. I'm 37 so I'm one of the 30 somethings I just never left the hobby like many of my friends. But what's funny is I have some friends who have started getting back into cards, one of whom made a fortune in the stock market and now has decided to start rebuilding a collection he started as a kid. So I see the future as having possibilities. I agree many kids dont collect sports cards but MANY collect nonsport and gaming cards meaning this is a segment (vintage non-sport) which is currently seeing some growth and may have even more opportunities going forward.

[Mark]

Originally Posted by M's_Fan

The NFL and NBA are kicking baseball's ass, and I don't see future collectors in the kids I see today. I'm not saying that we are collecting beanie babies that will be worthless, but I just don't expect to see the huge growth that we've seen, and we could actually see decline in the long long term. That said, I think we're safe for at least 10-15 years.

I think it depends on where you live. Where I live, in Southern Nevada, baseball is the big deal.

[ErikV]

By no means am I a financial advisor, but I think high
end cards have a proven track record for being a safe
asset in tough economic times. I found this chart in
an old issue of VCBC (some of the old time collectors
on the board may remember this periodical.) This chart
was dated April 2004 and provides a 30 year history
of how one would have faired investing in gold and stocks
versus a VG-EX T206 set.

I should add that today gold is nearly tripled and is
currently selling for 1107.70 oz.

The stock market today is at 10,561.44.

And the most current price for a T206 VG-EX set I
was able to locate was from 2008. Final price $105,750.
http://www.robertedwardauctions.com/.../2007/152.html