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#1
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Thoughts on a card collection
Hey everyone,
So over the past few weeks I got in a few nice collections on consignment. I am familiar with cards, the one aspect that continues to elude me is the grading. Let me give a quick example. I just got in a box of over 500 1975 Topps minis. These cards look pack fresh and smell brand new. Sharp corners, gloss etc. I was thinking of bulk submitting some non stars, however these things bring back less than the submission fee if they are graded 7-8. How can you even tell the difference between a 8 and 9? I know they have the PSA grading standards, but I'm worried we send in 100 of these things and they all come back 7's. I also got in about 500 1969 topps cards that all look pristine, but I worry about the same thing. There really is no way to know if something will get a 10 I am assuming correct? Am I better off selling as a raw lot of NM+ cards? Thoughts would be appreciated. |
#2
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Send in a few and see what happens...just randomly pick.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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M@tt McC@arthy I collect Hal Chase, Diamond Stars (PSA 5 or better), 1951 Bowman (Raw Ex or better), 1954 Topps (PSA 7 or better), 1956 Topps (Raw Ex or better), 3x5 Hall of Fame Autographs and autographed Perez Steele Postcards. You can see my collection by going to http://www.collectorfocus.com/collection/BigSix. |
#3
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It takes time and practice to get good at guessing grades. There is no short cut.
I have one of those cheap pair of "reading glasses" you can get at most stores. I have the 3X magnification and they work pretty good. Using them pick out your best cards and write down how you think they will grade. Send in those cards. When they get back see how you done and change your guessing style to what you really got. If you can get to within 1 full grade +/- of you guess on over 90% of a bulk submission you are doing good. |
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#5
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I know some people use a loupe. I personally find them next to worthless when inspecting a whole card for grading. When you hold the card up to the light and tilt it to look for any surface imperfections you can see the whole surface with glasses, all you see with a loupe is a very small part. The time you will save is well worth the $4 the glasses cost.
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#6
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I have a complete 1975 mini set PSA graded, which I did in multiple installments over a couple year period. I am nearsighted so I have terrible vision far away but great up close, so I am rather good at predicting what I'll get. I only submitted cards that I felt would get 8,9 or 10 grades. Perhaps 75% of them came back 8 or better. Out of over 1,000 cards submitted, I got ZERO 10s. Some of the 7's I resubmitted and got 8's. Some 8's were bumped to 8.5 or 9. A lot of this has to do with the grader you get and the mood he is in at the time. The odds of scoring mostly 9s and 10s is very low... unless you get a grader who is in a great mood. I have since bought a few 10s and there is virtually no difference from the majority of my 9s... in fact, some 9s even look better.
The best bet is to only send in star cards because you'll be able to sell and profit from a PSA 7 or 8 of Aaron, Ryan, Brett, Yount, Carter, Rice, etc. A PSA 7 common you might sell for $2 or $3... unless it's a Claudell Washington or other low pop 8. Check the pop report for these as there are a few, mainly of the green top/yellow bottom and red top/yellow bottom color schemes. Be aware that these two color schemes are often (but not always) shorter than all of the other cards and PSA won't holder them. Keep in mind that centering is a huge issue with these, right/left and top/bottom. Top/bottom may be off but you may not notice it as being bad but the same rules apply so try to keep your submissions to cards with 60/40 centering or better in all directions. Also, "snowy" images or other relatively small print defects will get the dreaded 'pd' qualifier. I'm sure you know about the wax stains, so either clean up the fronts by gently rubbing away the wax with a sock or else you'll get a stain (st) qualifier. There isn't anything you can do about a wax stain on the back... as far as I know, that's permanent. Finally, a rarer potential issue is a card that looks fine on the front but is miscut on the back. I have an Aaron 9(mc) that looks great on the front but you can see the border of another card on the back. Last edited by baztacula; 03-28-2017 at 01:27 PM. |
#7
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#8
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At this point, this is only trivia but 1975 Minis are probably one of the biggest headache-inducing sets that PSA has had to deal with. A while back, there were some shady card sellers who exploited the natural "shorties" phenomenon that I mentioned earlier. They trimmed away imperfections on the other taller cards and snuck them past the graders. I was the one who noticed this unfortunate trend. Around 10 years ago I contacted Joe Orlando (president at PSA) and supplied my evidence in a few emails and a phone call or two and got reimbursed for a bunch of trimmed minis in PSA holders. The graders have learned and they have adjusted so you'll probably never get even a naturally short green/yellow or red/yellow mini in a PSA holder these days. Last edited by baztacula; 03-28-2017 at 11:05 AM. |
#9
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I think it helps to have a name in the hobby. I have seen incidences that make me think it is often a rigged game.
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#10
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Things seem to get really tough at the upper end of grading. I've only done a handful of modern cards and those through SGC. I had a huge batch of 81 Topps, and picked what I thought were almost perfect examples of commons that had low populations in PSA 9 and 10. (SGC has almost no population on those at all) Didn't do all that bad, but didn't do all that good either. A couple 9s, mostly 8 or 8.5, The other modern stuff also got 8s.
I'd target a few likely ones, looking at the population. For the minis it's probably worth the chance on a few as part of a bigger submission. But they have to be really almost perfect. Steve B |
#11
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Jeff |
#12
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Good rules of thumb:
1) Your house isn't worth as much as you think it is 2) Your kids aren't as beautiful as you think they are 3) Your cards will not grade as high as you think they will |
#13
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Unfortunately you're up against some of the difficult new realities that especially affect mid range stuff (Or what's mid range for me, someone that can afford more expensive cards might think of it as low end)
The ones in the for sale post aren't bad. But new stuff seems to be graded much tougher than old stuff. The next part of the problem is that - at least for me- when I look at buying a card there's a few things I consider. After I get past the "do I have the money" and "do I already have one" the next thing is the quality vs price. And that's where middling stuff suffers. I find myself looking at raw cards and figuring on what grade I think it would get if I sent it in. Lets say a card is pretty nice, and I don't have one. That's two plusses And lets say it's $14 So I look at sold copies on Ebay. Yes, not every sale will be a good one, but there's enough to get a range. The 8s look to be between 20 and 30, a 7 sold for 10 or less and 9s are 50+ So I have to decide if the one available is an 8 or not. If I think it is, then it's an ok deal assuming I'd send it in on a special. If not then it's not a good deal. Next, I look at similar raw cards, especially since I don't really collect graded cards. Yes, I don't actively collect them, but they do have a lot of influence on pricing. Now a raw example with nice centering sells for $3-4 with usually another 3 shipping, and ones with typical centering are usually $1-2 So assuming I really want that card and soon, I have to decide between. A typical one for 1-2 A nicely centered one for 3-4 A graded one but "only " a 7 for 10 The Available one for 14 A graded one that's an 8 for 20-30 Or I could go for a 9 and spend maybe 50 None of those are outside my budget, (aside from my brain being stuck in the time when 75 minis were a few cents each maybe .25 for the minor stars. ) I'm not really that into graded cards, so I'd probably choose the nicely centered raw card for $4. Lately I've been looking at the collections differently though. So since someone will eventually need to sell it, I might go for a graded card, and one of the lower priced 8s isn't that much more than the nice ungraded one at 14 so it's a nice option with less risk. And that's the bind that ALL sellers find themselves in. They have to spend to get nice stuff to sell, but getting a decent return is hard if they can't buy cheaply enough. And there are a lot of competitors willing to overpay. And a lot of buyers who are even cheaper than I am. Steve B |
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Thank you. That lab sounds amazing. Quote:
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Thanks for that link! Didn't even think of one of those. I am going to order one asap. Quote:
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